根據(jù)IHS Markit發(fā)布的一份新報告，盡管生產(chǎn)成本持續(xù)上升，但2022年全球太陽能光伏裝機容量將出現(xiàn)超過20%的增長，首次突破200GW(DC)大關，所需投資總額至少為1700億美元。2013年-2020年，全球光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)成本平均降幅超過50%，不斷下降的光伏系統(tǒng)成本是這一行業(yè)指數(shù)級增長的關鍵因素。在此期間，全球裝機容量增長了275%。然而， 2021年，光伏系統(tǒng)成本同比增長4%，給蓬勃發(fā)展的市場帶來了新的挑戰(zhàn)。
       盡管成本超出預期，但中國、印度、美國和歐洲等主要市場的裝機容量今年再次推動了擴張，其中，最快的增長來自于由中國牽頭的分布式發(fā)電領域。IHS Markit清潔能源技術研究經(jīng)理Josefin Berg表示，"2021年，公用事業(yè)部門受到的影響最大，多個項目被推遲或取消。相比之下，受燃料危機和電價飆升的推動，分布式發(fā)電，也就是戶用和工商業(yè)領域增長強勁，尤其是在整個歐洲市場，這是太陽能光伏在2021年取得的一部分成功。”IHS Markit預計，2021年，太陽能光伏裝機容量將經(jīng)歷兩位數(shù)的增長并會持續(xù)增長至2022年。屆時，裝機容量預計將突破200GW(DC)大關，這意味著在高價格環(huán)境下，全球裝機容量連續(xù)第二年經(jīng)歷兩位數(shù)增長。明年成本會繼續(xù)上漲， 直至2023年新增產(chǎn)能釋放讓人們松一口氣。
        過去一年，物流和供應鏈遭受的劇烈破壞將太陽能光伏材料的成本推至新高。此外，中國在2021年下半年實施新的限電措施，限制了部分省份制造商的產(chǎn)量，影響了金屬硅、多晶硅和太陽能玻璃等關鍵材料的生產(chǎn)，進一步推高了價格。從2020年10月到2021年10月，多晶硅價格漲幅超過了200%，同時，其他組件材料的價格也大幅上漲，例如太陽能玻璃和銅，這迫使組件制造商調(diào)高價格。IHS Markit估計，自2021年8月以來，平均組件生產(chǎn)成本的漲幅已超過15%，組件價格目前已達到2019年的水平。其他太陽能光伏部件，如逆變器和跟蹤器，也受到部分材料（包括半導體組件）短缺和鋼鐵等原材料成本高企的影響。IHS Markit預計，目前的高額運費和隨后的運輸延誤將持續(xù)到2022年，這尤其會對國際項目的經(jīng)濟性產(chǎn)生影響。IHS Markit清潔能源技術執(zhí)行董事Edurne Zoco表示，“整個全球市場對投資和開發(fā)太陽能項目都興趣十足，但供應鏈還沒有做好滿足這種水平需求的準備，它需要時間來調(diào)整。在多晶硅市場上，我們可以最清楚地看到這一點，這會繼續(xù)成為2022年制約太陽能光伏發(fā)展的瓶頸問題，這一問題會持續(xù)到2023年，直到新產(chǎn)能項目量產(chǎn)為止?！?br>       預計在2023年之前，供應鏈的持續(xù)緊張狀況將使組件價格保持高位。一旦多晶硅產(chǎn)能與組件供應鏈的其他節(jié)點保持在同一水平，中國對其他關鍵組件材料（如 聚合物和太陽能玻璃）的限電情況有所緩解，那么從2023年開始，成本就會開始恢復下降趨勢。值得關注的是，組件技術路線圖中預測的組件效率的提升，即鈍化接觸電池(TOPCon)或異質(zhì)結電池(HJT)技術也將有助于從2023年起降低生產(chǎn)成本。
      政策的不確定性仍然是一個因素，全球三大太陽能光伏市場——中國、美國和印度的政策不確定性是2022年預測面臨的普遍問題，政策不確定性問題應在2022年一季度之前解決。政策公告會對產(chǎn)能決策和市場安裝速度產(chǎn)生重大影響。例如，在中國，目前限電的長度和強度將決定太陽能光伏的利用率以及國內(nèi)和國際市場的供應量。在美國，由于高成本、投資稅收抵免政策的可能延期以及從國際市場進口組件障礙的增多，政策決定和宏觀經(jīng)濟條件的未來變化都有可能破壞美國明年20%的公用事業(yè)項目預期。
      IHS Markit清潔能源技術執(zhí)行董事Edurne Zoco預計，"這兩年，太陽能光伏成本的下降陷入僵局，雖然如此，太陽能仍然是資本支出最低的能源技術之一，是安裝速度最快的能源。在太陽能的技術競爭力、多功能特性和安裝速度的推動下，預計2021-2025年太陽能項目累計裝機容量將超過1000GW(DC)，這會對這十年電力系統(tǒng)的去碳化起到重要作用。”

According to a new report by IHS Markit, global installed solar pv capacity is set to grow by more than 20% in 2022, breaking the 200GW(DC) mark for the first time and requiring a total investment of at least $170 billion, despite rising production costs.   From 2013 to 2020, global pv system costs fell by an average of more than 50%, and falling PV system costs are a key factor behind the exponential growth of the industry.  During that time, global installed capacity grew 275 per cent.  However, pv system costs increased by 4% year-on-year in 2021, bringing new challenges to the booming market.  

Despite higher-than-expected costs, installed capacity in key markets such as China, India, the US and Europe has driven expansion again this year, with the fastest growth coming from distributed generation, led by China.   "In 2021, the utilities sector is the most affected, with multiple projects being delayed or cancelled," said Josefin Berg, research manager for clean energy technologies at IHS Markit.   In contrast, distributed generation, the household and industrial and commercial sector, is growing strongly, particularly in the European market as a whole, driven by the fuel crisis and soaring electricity prices, which is part of the success of SOLAR pv in 2021."  IHS Markit expects installed solar pv capacity to experience double-digit growth in 2021 and continue to grow through 2022.  By then, installed capacity is expected to pass the 200GW(DC) mark, meaning global installed capacity has experienced double-digit growth for the second year in a row in a high-price environment.  Costs will continue to rise next year, until new capacity is released in 2023.  

Severe disruptions to logistics and supply chains over the past year have pushed the cost of solar photovoltaic materials to new highs.  In addition, new power rationing measures in the second half of 2021 have limited production by manufacturers in some provinces, affecting production of key materials such as silicon metal, polysilicon and solar glass, further driving up prices.  Polysilicon prices rose more than 200 percent from October 2020 to October 2021, while prices of other component materials, such as solar glass and copper, also rose sharply, forcing component makers to raise prices.  IHS Markit estimates that average component production costs have risen by more than 15% since August 2021, with component prices now reaching 2019 levels.  Other solar pv components, such as inverters and trackers, have also been affected by shortages of some materials, including semiconductor components, and high costs of raw materials such as steel.  IHS Markit expects the current high freight rates and subsequent shipping delays to continue into 2022, particularly affecting the economics of international projects.  Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean energy technologies at IHS Markit, said: "There is strong interest across the global market to invest in and develop solar projects, but the supply chain is not ready to meet this level of demand and it will take time to adjust.  We can see this most clearly in the polysilicon market, which will continue to be a bottleneck for solar pv development in 2022 and until 2023, when new capacity projects come into production."  

Continued tightness in the supply chain is expected to keep component prices high until 2023.  Once polysilicon capacity is kept at the same level as the rest of the component supply chain, and China's power rationing on other key component materials, such as polymers and solar glass, eases, costs will start to resume their downward trend from 2023.   It is worth noting that improvements in component efficiency predicted in the component Technology Roadmap, namely passivated contact cell (TOPCon) or heterojunction cell (HJT) technology, will also help reduce production costs from 2023.  

Policy uncertainty continues to be a factor, with policy uncertainty in China, the US and India, the three largest solar pv markets in the world, being a common issue for 2022 forecasts, which should be resolved by the first quarter of 2022.   Policy announcements can have a significant impact on capacity decisions and the speed of installation to market.  In China, for example, the length and intensity of the current blackout will determine solar pv utilization and supply in domestic and international markets.  In the United States, policy decisions and future changes in macroeconomic conditions could undermine 20 percent of U.S. utility project projections for next year due to high costs, potential extension of investment tax credits, and increased barriers to importing components from international markets.  

Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean energy technologies at IHS Markit, predicted, "The decline in solar pv costs has stalled for two years, but solar remains one of the lowest capex energy technologies and the fastest to install.   "The cumulative installed capacity of solar projects is expected to exceed 1000GW(DC) in 2021-2025, driven by solar's technological competitiveness, multi-functional characteristics and installation speed, which will play an important role in the decarbonization of the power system this decade."