、微逆優(yōu)勢(shì)：安全性高、發(fā)電增益高、靈活性高

光伏逆變器的主要作用為實(shí)現(xiàn)電能的轉(zhuǎn)換，將光伏組件產(chǎn)生的直流電轉(zhuǎn)化為電網(wǎng)傳輸和 用戶使用的交流電，是光伏系統(tǒng)的組成要素之一。根據(jù)技術(shù)路徑不同，光伏逆變器主要 包括集中式逆變器、組串式逆變器和微型逆變器。從應(yīng)用場(chǎng)景來看，微型逆變器通常適用于分布式發(fā)電系統(tǒng)，常用于戶用屋頂和工商業(yè)屋頂?shù)葓?chǎng)景；集中式逆變器主要用于集 中式發(fā)電系統(tǒng)，常用于大面積且光照強(qiáng)烈的場(chǎng)景，如荒漠、山地等；組串式逆變器功率 范圍較廣，兼容分布式和集中式發(fā)電場(chǎng)景。

和其他產(chǎn)品相比，微型逆變器具備更高的安全性、更高的發(fā)電增益、以及更靈活的安裝 方式。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)組件級(jí)關(guān)斷，與微型逆變器形成互補(bǔ)的效果的還有“組串式逆變器+關(guān)斷 器”和“組串式逆變器+優(yōu)化器”產(chǎn)品，微逆與這些產(chǎn)品統(tǒng)稱為組件級(jí)電力電子（MLPE）。與其他兩種產(chǎn)品相比，微型逆變器最明顯的優(yōu)勢(shì)是具有直流電壓低的特點(diǎn)，能消除發(fā)電 過程中的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但目前微逆成本較高，價(jià)格方面存在劣勢(shì)。

二、需求端：安規(guī)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提升+價(jià)格下降，微逆滲透率將快速提升

（一）行業(yè)：初始成本下降+發(fā)電效率提升，光伏成為最便宜的能源

光伏系統(tǒng)成本持續(xù)下降，發(fā)電效率不斷提升。目前，光伏發(fā)電已經(jīng)基本實(shí)現(xiàn)與火電平價(jià)。CPIA數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2022年地面電站的初始成本預(yù)計(jì)下降為3.93元/W，較2016年下降46%；工商業(yè)分布式電站初始投資成本預(yù)計(jì)為 3.53 元/W，較 2017 年下降 58%。初始成本和效 率提升帶動(dòng)光伏發(fā)電的LCOE迅速下降。LAZRD 數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2009-2021年，光伏發(fā)電LCOE 累計(jì)下降 90%，達(dá)到 36 美元/MWh，是成本最低的能源方式。

光伏發(fā)電量當(dāng)前占比較小。根據(jù) BloombergNEF 測(cè)算，2022 年 3 月全球光伏累計(jì)裝機(jī)達(dá) 到 1TW。盡管光伏行業(yè)已經(jīng)快速發(fā)展多年，但截至 2021 年底，全球光伏發(fā)電量占比約 為 5%，占比仍然較低。新能源替代趨勢(shì)強(qiáng)勁，光伏發(fā)電未來提升空間較大。目前中國、美國、歐盟等多個(gè)國家 和地區(qū)正在加速新能源替代，未來光伏發(fā)電量占比將持續(xù)提升。假設(shè) 2030/2050 年光伏 發(fā)電量占比提升至 23.7%/40%，預(yù)計(jì)光伏累計(jì)裝機(jī)將達(dá)到 6.8/18.7TW，到 2030/2050 年 光伏每年新增裝機(jī)平均增速將達(dá)到 22%/16%。

Micro inverse advantages: high safety, high power generation gain, high flexibility

The main function of photovoltaic inverter is to realize the conversion of electric energy, the direct current generated by photovoltaic modules into the power grid transmission and user use of alternating current, is one of the components of the photovoltaic system. According to different technology paths, photovoltaic inverters mainly include centralized inverters, group series inverters and micro inverters. In terms of application scenarios, micro inverters are usually suitable for distributed power generation systems, which are often used in domestic and commercial roofs. Centralized inverter is mainly used for collecting Chinese power generation system, often used in large area and intense lighting scene, such as desert, mountain, etc. Series inverters have a wide power range and are compatible with distributed and centralized power generation scenarios.

The picture

Compared with other products, micro inverters offer higher safety, higher generation gain, and more flexible installation. In order to realize component-level shut-off, there are also "group series inverter + shut-off" and "group series inverter + optimizer" products complementary to the micro inverter. Micro inverse and these products are collectively referred to as component level power electronics (MLPE). Compared with the other two products, the most obvious advantage of the micro inverter is that it has the characteristics of low DC voltage, which can eliminate the fire risk during the generation process. But at present, the cost of micro inverse is high and the price is inferior.

Second, the demand side: safety standards increase + price decrease, micro inverse penetration rate will increase rapidly

(I) Industry: initial cost reduction + power generation efficiency improvement, photovoltaic becomes the cheapest energy

The cost of photovoltaic system continues to decrease, and the power generation efficiency continues to improve. At present, photovoltaic power generation has basically achieved parity with thermal power. CPIA data show that the initial cost of ground power stations is expected to decrease to 3.93 yuan /W in 2022, 46% lower than that in 2016. The initial investment cost of industrial and commercial distributed power stations is expected to be 3.53 yuan /W, which is 58% lower than that in 2017. The increase of initial cost and efficiency drives the rapid decline of LCOE of photovoltaic power generation. According to LAZRD data, the LCOE for PV has fallen by 90% cumulatively to $36 /MWh from 2009 to 2021, making it the lowest-cost form of energy.

The picture

Photovoltaic power generation currently accounts for a relatively small proportion. As measured by BloombergNEF, the cumulative installed PV capacity worldwide reached 1TW in March 2022. Although the PV industry has been developing rapidly for many years, the share of global PV generation at the end of 2021 is still low at about 5%. The trend of new energy substitution is strong, and there is a large room for future improvement of photovoltaic power generation. At present, China, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions are accelerating the replacement of new energy, and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation will continue to increase in the future. Assuming that the proportion of photovoltaic power generation increases to 23.7%/40% in 2030/2050, it is expected that the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 6.8/18.7TW, and the average annual growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 22%/16% in 2030/2050.