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我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)進入全新境界 如何應對未來挑戰(zhàn)?

返回列表 來源: 發(fā)布日期: 2023.10.09 瀏覽次數(shù):

當今,我國光伏發(fā)電裝機規(guī)模不斷迅猛擴張。僅今年上半年,新增裝機便達到了7842萬千瓦,累計裝機規(guī)模更已突破4.7億千瓦。與此同時,光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)量也在不斷攀升,消納利用水平保持相對較高。上半年,全國光伏發(fā)電總量超過了2600億千瓦時,同比增長約30%,平均利用率高達98%。


然而,隨著技術和應用領域的不斷突破,我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)邁入全新的境界。然而,與此同時,高比例的光伏能源接入也為光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來了新的考驗。眾多業(yè)界專家共識認為,積極探索新的光伏利用模式將成為光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)未來發(fā)展的重中之重。


展望未來,中國光伏行業(yè)協(xié)會秘書長王世江強調(diào):“經(jīng)過幾十年的發(fā)展,光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為我國為數(shù)不多的具備國際競爭優(yōu)勢的產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,實現(xiàn)了從端到端的自主可控,而且有望成為高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的典范,對推動我國能源變革發(fā)揮著至關重要的作用。


就產(chǎn)業(yè)本身而言,在2023年上半年,我國多晶硅、硅片、電池片和組件等主要環(huán)節(jié)的產(chǎn)量增速均超過60%;就國際貿(mào)易而言,在2022年,我國光伏產(chǎn)品出口額超過500億美元,今年上半年更是達到了290億美元,同比增長13%,這已經(jīng)是出口的‘新三寶’之一;從市場應用來看,在2022年,我國連續(xù)十年位居全球新增光伏裝機容量第一,今年上半年新增裝機容量更是突破了7800萬千瓦,同比增長達到了154%。


在專家看來,光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)取得顯著成就,特別是在應對“雙碳”目標的背景下,光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)前景光明。根據(jù)中國氣象局數(shù)據(jù),我國光伏資源總量約為1300億千瓦,技術可開發(fā)量更是超過了400億千瓦,為確保能源本質(zhì)安全提供了有力基礎。加大新能源的開發(fā)利用,促進各領域?qū)π履茉吹谋壤嵘?,增強新能源對石油和天然氣的替代作用,已?jīng)成為確保我國能源安全的必由之路。

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然而,光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的高速發(fā)展也帶來了前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。傳統(tǒng)能源電力系統(tǒng)結構下,一次能源需轉化為電能并接入電網(wǎng),而由于缺乏大規(guī)模、經(jīng)濟實用的儲能技術,電力系統(tǒng)必須時刻保持供需平衡,這對高度不確定性的可再生能源利用構成了根本性挑戰(zhàn)。


充分利用儲能技術將成為實現(xiàn)可再生能源利用的關鍵。儲能技術有助于實現(xiàn)能源系統(tǒng)供需的實時平衡,解決可再生能源不確定性帶來的風電、光電以及水電等問題,以實現(xiàn)最大程度的可再生能源利用。


以新能源為主導的新型電力系統(tǒng)提出了我國電力系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的新方向,而配電網(wǎng)作為其中的一個環(huán)節(jié),涉及居民用戶,并將電能安全傳輸?shù)角Ъ胰f戶,具有重要的基礎設施地位。


在新的背景下,配電系統(tǒng)的角色也在發(fā)生重大轉變。未來,配電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展將承擔更多職責,它不僅是支持可再生能源消納的支撐平臺,還需要應對數(shù)億電表計量數(shù)據(jù)等大量多樣的信息接入。同時,配電網(wǎng)還需要成為多利益相關方參與的平臺,以及電氣化交通的服務平臺。因此,為了適應未來配電系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展需求,需要在現(xiàn)有基礎上進行改進,以滿足低碳化、分布化、去中心化和數(shù)字化等新特點。


在面對未來的挑戰(zhàn)時,多位專家強調(diào),必須加快科技創(chuàng)新步伐,通過創(chuàng)新的利用模式來推動光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的高質(zhì)量發(fā)展。

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未來,需要進一步推動光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)實現(xiàn)智能化、綠色化和高端化的轉型,充分發(fā)揮新能源的優(yōu)勢。打造綠色低碳的光伏產(chǎn)品,通過技術創(chuàng)新推動產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,加速電池技術等領域的發(fā)展。同時,還應積極促進光伏與其他行業(yè)的深度融合,將光伏應用于建筑、交通、農(nóng)業(yè)、畜牧業(yè)、沙漠治理等多個領域,實現(xiàn)多元化應用。


綠色化的能源電力系統(tǒng)勢在必行,而經(jīng)濟實用的儲能技術是實現(xiàn)可再生能源利用的關鍵。通過將氫能與可再生能源相結合,可以實現(xiàn)能源系統(tǒng)供需的實時平衡,解決可再生能源的不確定性問題,構建可復制的分布式零碳能源系統(tǒng)。這種以氫能為支撐的分布式零碳智能能源系統(tǒng)將會深刻改變能源結構,為未來的分布式數(shù)據(jù)中心、高速通信站點等提供零碳能源,為綠色、分布、市場為特征的能源革命做出貢獻。


綜上所述,光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)在我國已經(jīng)取得重要的進展,然而也面臨新的挑戰(zhàn)。通過技術創(chuàng)新和利用模式的創(chuàng)新,我國有望推動光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)實現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展,為可再生能源的可持續(xù)利用做出貢獻。

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Nowadays, the installed scale of photovoltaic power generation in China is constantly expanding rapidly. In the first half of this year alone, the newly installed capacity reached 78.42 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity has exceeded 470 million kilowatts. At the same time, the output of photovoltaic power generation is also constantly increasing, and the level of consumption and utilization remains relatively high. In the first half of the year, the total amount of photovoltaic power generation in China exceeded 260 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of about 30%, and the average utilization rate was as high as 98%.
However, with the continuous breakthroughs in technology and application fields, China's photovoltaic industry has entered a new realm. However, at the same time, the high proportion of photovoltaic energy access has also brought new challenges to the photovoltaic industry. Many industry experts unanimously believe that actively exploring new photovoltaic utilization models will become a top priority for the future development of the photovoltaic industry.
Looking ahead to the future, Wang Shijiang, Secretary General of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, emphasized that "after decades of development, the photovoltaic industry has become one of the few industries in China with international competitive advantages, achieving end-to-end autonomy and controllability, and is expected to become a model of high-quality development, playing a crucial role in promoting China's energy transformation.
In terms of the industry itself, in the first half of 2023, the production growth rate of China's main links such as polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components exceeded 60%; In terms of international trade, in 2022, China's export value of photovoltaic products exceeded 50 billion US dollars, and in the first half of this year, it reached 29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13%, which has become one of the 'new three treasures' of exports; From the perspective of market application, in 2022, China ranked first in the world's newly added photovoltaic installed capacity for ten consecutive years. In the first half of this year, the newly added installed capacity exceeded 78 million kilowatts, with a year-on-year growth of 154%.
In the eyes of experts, the photovoltaic industry has made significant achievements, especially in the context of addressing the "dual carbon" goals, and the prospects for the photovoltaic industry are bright. According to data from the China Meteorological Administration, the total amount of photovoltaic resources in China is about 130 billion kilowatts, and the exploitable amount of technology exceeds 40 billion kilowatts, providing a strong foundation for ensuring the intrinsic safety of energy. Increasing the development and utilization of new energy, promoting the proportion of new energy in various fields, and enhancing the substitute role of new energy for oil and natural gas have become the only way to ensure China's energy security.
However, the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry has also brought unprecedented challenges. Under the traditional energy power system structure, primary energy needs to be converted into electrical energy and connected to the grid. However, due to the lack of large-scale and economically practical energy storage technology, the power system must always maintain a supply-demand balance, which poses a fundamental challenge to the highly uncertain utilization of renewable energy.
Fully utilizing energy storage technology will become the key to achieving the utilization of renewable energy. Energy storage technology helps to achieve real-time balance between supply and demand in energy systems, solve problems such as wind power, optoelectronics, and hydropower caused by the uncertainty of renewable energy, and achieve maximum utilization of renewable energy.
The new power system led by new energy has proposed a new direction for the development of China's power system, and the distribution network, as one of its links, involves residential users and safely transmits electricity to thousands of households, which is of great importance
The new power system led by new energy has proposed a new direction for the development of China's power system, and the distribution network, as one of its links, involves residential users and safely transmits electricity to thousands of households, playing an important infrastructure role.
In the new context, the role of the distribution system is also undergoing significant changes. In the future, the development of the distribution network will take on more responsibilities. It is not only a supporting platform for supporting the consumption of renewable energy, but also needs to cope with the access to a large amount of diverse information such as hundreds of millions of electricity meter measurement data. At the same time, the distribution network also needs to become a platform for multi-stakeholder participation, as well as a service platform for electrified transportation. Therefore, in order to meet the development needs of future distribution systems, improvements need to be made on the existing basis to meet new characteristics such as low-carbon, distributed, decentralized, and digital.
In the face of future challenges, multiple experts emphasized the need to accelerate the pace of technological innovation and promote high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry through innovative utilization models.
In the future, it is necessary to further promote the transformation of the photovoltaic industry towards intelligence, greenery, and high-end, and fully leverage the advantages of new energy. Create green and low-carbon photovoltaic products, promote industrial upgrading through technological innovation, and accelerate the development of battery technology and other fields. At the same time, it is also necessary to actively promote the deep integration of photovoltaics with other industries, and apply photovoltaics to multiple fields such as construction, transportation, agriculture, animal husbandry, and desert management to achieve diversified applications.
A green energy power system is imperative, and economically practical energy storage technology is the key to achieving the utilization of renewable energy. By combining hydrogen energy with renewable energy, real-time balance between supply and demand in the energy system can be achieved, solving the uncertainty problem of renewable energy, and constructing a replicable distributed zero carbon energy system. This distributed zero carbon intelligent energy system supported by hydrogen energy will profoundly change the energy structure, provide zero carbon energy for future distributed data centers, high-speed communication stations, and contribute to the green, distributed, and market-oriented energy revolution.
In summary, the photovoltaic industry has made significant progress in China, but it also faces new challenges. Through technological innovation and innovative utilization models, China is expected to promote high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry and contribute to the sustainable utilization of renewable energy.

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