在“實現(xiàn)碳達峰、碳中和，企業(yè)何為”主題論壇上，中國社會科學(xué)院生態(tài)文明研究所所長張永生表示，全球范圍的碳中和共識，標(biāo)志著一個舊發(fā)展時代的結(jié)束，新發(fā)展時代的來臨。實現(xiàn)碳中和會帶來巨大的機遇，也會面臨非常大的挑戰(zhàn)。
全球碳中和共識標(biāo)志著傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)時代的落幕
張永生介紹，在2009年的哥本哈根氣候大會上，幾乎所有國家都認(rèn)為碳減排是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的負(fù)擔(dān)。那時各國的談判策略都是希望其他國家多減排、本國少減排。短短十年，世界仿佛發(fā)生了滄海桑田的巨變。全球碳中和共識已然形成，不僅發(fā)達國家提出凈零碳排放目標(biāo)，以中國為引領(lǐng)的一些發(fā)展中國家也提出碳中和目標(biāo)。
過去說到現(xiàn)代化，大都是將現(xiàn)有發(fā)達國家作為經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)代化的目標(biāo)。一些人認(rèn)為，發(fā)達國家的今天，就是中國現(xiàn)代化的明天。但是，中國的現(xiàn)代化不是西方現(xiàn)代化的簡單翻版，而是人與自然和諧共生的現(xiàn)代化。這對發(fā)達國家和中國來說，都是新事物，因為現(xiàn)在的發(fā)達國家，也沒有實現(xiàn)人與自然和諧共生的現(xiàn)代化。在這個問題上，中國和發(fā)達國家站在大體相同的起跑線上?！斑@也意味著，中國在進入新發(fā)展階段后，將以新的發(fā)展方式實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化”。
張永生表示，實現(xiàn)碳中和蘊藏著巨大的發(fā)展機遇，但要實現(xiàn)這個目標(biāo)也并不容易，是一場生產(chǎn)生活方式的“自我革命”。目前，社會各界對于碳中和目標(biāo)有很多觀點。樂觀者認(rèn)為，碳中和目標(biāo)帶來了數(shù)十萬億甚至百萬億級的投資機會。這種說法大體是對的，但這些市場機會能不能轉(zhuǎn)化成現(xiàn)實，則需要具備很多政策和市場條件。
還有一種樂觀派——技術(shù)決定論者認(rèn)為，實現(xiàn)碳中和目標(biāo)就是依靠新的技術(shù)突破。他們認(rèn)為，在不改變現(xiàn)有生產(chǎn)、生活方式的前提下，碳中和只是像替換一個汽車零部件一樣，用新能源替換化石能源就能實現(xiàn)，但實際上并非如此。
一些悲觀派則認(rèn)為，在中國，尤其是一些化石能源行業(yè)可能會認(rèn)為，轉(zhuǎn)型會有非常大的困難。這個是非常現(xiàn)實的困難。政府要給予特別的支持，幫助他們轉(zhuǎn)型，并創(chuàng)造新就業(yè)機會。還有的人認(rèn)為，在中國還沒有完全完成工業(yè)化時就提出碳中和目標(biāo)，這可能會影響中國的現(xiàn)代化進程。這種思維，可能更多的還是在傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化模式下考慮問題，一旦跳出來，就會看到大量新的機遇。
在張永生看來，碳中和目標(biāo)的提出，實際上代表著一個舊發(fā)展時代的結(jié)束，一個新發(fā)展時代的來臨。實現(xiàn)碳中和目標(biāo)會帶來巨大的市場機遇，也會面臨巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。如果不準(zhǔn)備好，很多行業(yè)、地區(qū)、部門可能就會受到相當(dāng)大的沖擊。綠色轉(zhuǎn)型是從一個結(jié)構(gòu)躍升到另一個新的結(jié)構(gòu)。一旦采取行動，很多在舊結(jié)構(gòu)下完全想不到的新機會，就會跳出來了。
碳中和有望開啟中國下一個40年發(fā)展奇跡.

 張永生認(rèn)為，碳中和意味著發(fā)展模式的深刻轉(zhuǎn)變。碳達峰、碳中和兩個概念經(jīng)常被連在一起談，說實現(xiàn)碳達峰之后再實現(xiàn)碳中和。但是，碳達峰和碳中和，其實是兩個不同性質(zhì)的概念。
碳達峰在傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化模式下也可以實現(xiàn)，只是力度不一樣，實現(xiàn)的時間或早一點、晚一點，實現(xiàn)的峰值高一點和低一點的區(qū)別。但是，要實現(xiàn)碳中和，則意味著中國現(xiàn)在一百多億噸的碳排放，要全部消除掉，其中大部分通過減排，小部分通過“中和”完成。中國目前的一百萬億元GDP，正是建立在這一百多億噸碳排放的基礎(chǔ)上，而2035年經(jīng)濟還要倍增，新增約100萬億元GDP。考慮到2030年碳達峰，大體上相當(dāng)于這新增的100萬億元GDP都是零碳甚至負(fù)碳。這就意味著，現(xiàn)在整個經(jīng)濟大廈的根基要發(fā)生徹底改變，包括衣食住行所有的生產(chǎn)、生活方式都要改變。這是一個脫胎換骨的改變，同每個人的生活都密切相關(guān)，不是只和搞環(huán)保行業(yè)的人士相關(guān)。
張永生表示，從20世紀(jì)80年代開始，中國就在講生產(chǎn)方式的轉(zhuǎn)變，從粗放型到節(jié)約型。但是，現(xiàn)在講的綠色發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變，同以前不是同一個概念。過去強調(diào)效率提高、技術(shù)提高和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的提升，但現(xiàn)在要解決的是全球碳排放問題，轉(zhuǎn)型要從生產(chǎn)的內(nèi)容到生產(chǎn)的方式都發(fā)生徹底的變化。我們生活方式也要發(fā)生改變，消費的東西也要發(fā)生改變。
張永生認(rèn)為，碳中和有望開啟中國下一個40年發(fā)展奇跡。從1978年到2020年（42年），是中國的第一個40年發(fā)展奇跡。當(dāng)初沒有人想到，中國會在40年發(fā)生如此翻天覆地的變化。這個發(fā)展奇跡，更多的還是在走傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化道路，最終難以持續(xù)。從2020年到2060年正好40年，也是全球進入新綠色發(fā)展時代的40年，傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)時代形成的經(jīng)濟體系將會被徹底重塑，發(fā)展理念、生產(chǎn)和消費的內(nèi)容、資源概念、商業(yè)模式等，都會發(fā)生很大改變，大量新機遇會出來。如果抓住這個歷史機遇，未來40年有望出現(xiàn)新的發(fā)展奇跡，而這個發(fā)展奇跡，不只是經(jīng)濟增長，更是發(fā)展質(zhì)量和人們福祉的提高，同時實現(xiàn)“人與自然和諧共生”的現(xiàn)代化。
不徹底轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式，碳達峰一百年也無法自動實現(xiàn)碳中和
過去十年，新能源成本大幅度下降。原來人們認(rèn)為成本下降空間比較小的風(fēng)電，也有大幅度下降。今后新能源將是成本非常低的能源。這就是市場神奇的力量。任何一個產(chǎn)品剛出來時，價格都會很高，但是隨著市場分工與專業(yè)化水平的提升，成本越來越低，最后成為低價的普通商品。因此，如果我們理解市場的作用機理，“風(fēng)電、光伏、電動汽車等的增長前景，根本不用擔(dān)心”，張永生介紹說。
就太陽能光伏而言，2000年中國的光伏發(fā)電裝機容量規(guī)模很小，但現(xiàn)在中國是世界第一，遠遠高于美國。風(fēng)能發(fā)電裝機容量也一樣，2018年就已經(jīng)遠遠地把美國甩在后面，并且仍在高速增長。同樣，2008年時，中國電動汽車推廣異常艱難，現(xiàn)在中國的電動汽車使用數(shù)量已經(jīng)遠超英美等國家。我國在新能源和電動車等綠色經(jīng)濟新領(lǐng)域，不少方面還有一定的優(yōu)勢，包括技術(shù)水平、制造能力、市場份額等。
張永生認(rèn)為，在實現(xiàn)碳中和的戰(zhàn)略上，中國要考慮以下幾點。首先要跳出傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化思維，在新發(fā)展階段、新發(fā)展理念和新發(fā)展格局的背景下理解中國的碳中和戰(zhàn)略。碳中和目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)，應(yīng)該是“低碳經(jīng)濟+低中和”，而不是“高碳經(jīng)濟+高中和”。換句話說，我們要從可持續(xù)發(fā)展的角度來看待碳中和，而不是只是減碳這個單一維度。
另外，要實現(xiàn)碳中和目標(biāo)，現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)該采取強有力措施轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式，而不是等碳達峰之后開始轉(zhuǎn)變。如果不徹底轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式，即使碳達峰一百年，也無法自動實現(xiàn)碳中和。從現(xiàn)在到2035年，中國要基本實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化，GDP還要再新增一倍。這是中國碳中和的窗口期。如果不從現(xiàn)在開始加快行動減排，就會被鎖定在高碳路徑，等碳達峰后再轉(zhuǎn)換，實現(xiàn)碳中和的成本就會非常高。

At the forum, Zhang Yongsheng, director of the Institute of Ecological Civilization under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the global consensus on carbon neutrality marks the end of an old era of development and the advent of a new one. Achieving carbon neutrality presents both great opportunities and great challenges.

The global carbon-neutral consensus marks the end of the traditional industrial era

According to Zhang yongsheng, at the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, almost all countries agreed that carbon reduction was a burden on economic development. At that time, the negotiating strategy was to expect other countries to reduce their emissions more and their own emissions less.In just ten years, the world seems to have changed dramatically. A global consensus on carbon neutrality has taken shape. Not only developed countries have proposed net zero carbon emission targets, but also some developing countries, led by China, have proposed carbon neutrality targets.

In the past, when it comes to modernization, most of them regard the existing developed countries as the target of economic modernization.Some people believe that the present of developed countries is the future of China's modernization.However, China's modernization is not a simple copy of western modernization, but a modernization in which man and nature coexist in harmony. This is new to both developed countries and China, because the developed countries have yet to realize the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature. On this issue, China and developed countries are standing at roughly the same starting line. "It also means that China will modernise in a new way as it enters a new stage of development."

Zhang yongsheng said achieving carbon neutrality is a huge development opportunity, but it is not easy to achieve the goal, which is a "self-revolution" in the way of production and life. At present, there are many views on the goal of carbon neutrality.Optimists argue that carbon neutrality offers investment opportunities in the trillions or even trillions. That is broadly true, but translating these market opportunities into reality requires a lot of policy and market conditions.

There are also optimists, the technodeterminists, who believe that achieving carbon neutrality depends on new technological breakthroughs.They believe that carbon neutrality can be achieved by replacing fossil fuels with new energy sources, just like replacing a car part, without changing existing production and lifestyle, but it is not the case.

Some pessimists argue that China, particularly some in the fossil energy industry, may find the transition very difficult.This is a very real difficulty. Special government support is needed to help them transform and create new jobs.Others argue that introducing carbon neutrality targets at a time when China has not yet fully industrialised could jeopardise its modernisation. This kind of thinking may be more in the traditional industrial model of thinking, once out, will see a lot of new opportunities.

In Zhang yongsheng's view, the proposal of carbon neutrality actually represents the end of an old development era and the advent of a new one.Achieving carbon neutrality will bring huge market opportunities as well as huge challenges.Many industries, regions and sectors could be hit quite hard if they are not. A green transition is a jump from one structure to a new one.Once action is taken, many new opportunities will pop up that could not have been thought of under the old structure.

Carbon neutrality is expected to usher in China's next 40-year development miracle

According to Zhang yongsheng, carbon neutrality means a profound shift in the development model.The concepts of carbon peak and carbon neutral are often talked about together, saying that carbon peak and then carbon neutral. However, carbon peak and carbon neutral are two different concepts.

Carbon peak can also be achieved under the traditional industrialization model, but the intensity is different, the time of realization or a little earlier, a little later, the realization of a little higher peak and a little lower difference. To achieve carbon neutrality, however, means eliminating all of China's current carbon emissions of more than 10 billion tons, most of which through emission reduction and a small part through "neutralization". China's current GDP of 100 trillion yuan is based on carbon emissions of more than 10 billion tons. In 2035, the economy will double, adding about 100 trillion yuan to China's GDP.Considering the carbon peak in 2030, roughly equivalent to this additional 100 trillion yuan of GDP is zero or even negative carbon. This means that the foundation of the entire economic edifice has to be completely changed, including the basic necessities of life and production. This is a radical change that affects everyone's life, not just those in the environmental industry.

Since the 1980s, Says Mr Zhang, China has been talking about shifting from an extensive to an economical mode of production.However, the transformation of the mode of green development is not the same concept as before. In the past, the emphasis was on efficiency, technology and industrial structure improvement, but now it is on global carbon emissions, and the transformation requires a radical change in both what is produced and how it is produced. The way we live is going to change, the things we consume are going to change.

Zhang yongsheng believes that carbon neutrality could usher in China's next 40-year development miracle.The period from 1978 to 2020 (42 years) is China's first 40-year development miracle. No one could have imagined that China would change so dramatically in 40 years.This development miracle, more along the path of traditional industrialization, will not be sustainable. The period from 2020 to 2060 is exactly 40 years that the world will enter a new era of green development. The economic system formed in the traditional industrial era will be completely reshaped, with great changes in the concept of development, content of production and consumption, concept of resources and business model. A large number of new opportunities will emerge.If we seize this historic opportunity, a new miracle of development is expected to emerge in the next 40 years. This miracle of development is not only about economic growth, but also about improving the quality of development and people's well-being, and realizing modernization in which "man and nature coexist in harmony".

Without a complete shift in the mode of development, carbon neutrality cannot be achieved automatically within 100 years of peaking

The cost of new energy has fallen dramatically over the past decade.Wind power, which is thought to have little room for cost reduction, has also dropped significantly. The new energy sources of the future will be very low-cost energy sources.That's the magic of the market. When any product comes out, the price will be high, but with the improvement of market division and specialization, the cost will be lower and lower, and finally become a low-priced common commodity. So if we understand how the market works, "the growth prospects for wind power, photovoltaics, electric vehicles and so on, we don't have to worry at all," Says Zhang yongsheng.

In terms of solar pv, China's installed pv capacity was small in 2000, but now China is the world's largest, far ahead of the United States.Wind power capacity, too, was far behind the US in 2018 and is still growing at a high rate.Similarly, the adoption of electric vehicles in China, which struggled in 2008, now far outstrips those in countries like the U.S. and The U.K. China has certain advantages in many areas of green economy, such as new energy and electric vehicles, including technological level, manufacturing capacity and market share.

According to Zhang yongsheng, China needs to consider the following points in its strategy to achieve carbon neutrality.First of all, China's carbon neutrality strategy should be understood in the context of new development stage, new development concept and new development pattern. The goal of carbon neutrality should be "low-carbon economy + low neutralization", not "high carbon economy + high school peace".In other words, we need to look at carbon neutrality from the perspective of sustainable development, not just carbon reduction as a single dimension.

Moreover, to achieve carbon neutrality, strong measures should be taken now to change the way development is done, rather than waiting until carbon peaks.Without a radical shift in development patterns, carbon neutrality will not be achieved automatically even if carbon peaks at 100 years.Between now and 2035, China will basically achieve modernization and its GDP will double again. This is the window period for China to become carbon neutral.If we don't accelerate emissions reduction now, we will be locked into a high carbon path, and then switch to carbon neutrality when we reach the peak, which will be very costly.