“十四五”時期是我國推動能源轉(zhuǎn)型和綠色發(fā)展的重要窗口期，能源轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程將在這五年期間加快步伐，但同時也依舊面臨地方發(fā)展不均衡、節(jié)能減排進(jìn)程放緩、行動計劃落實(shí)程度不足、碳市場如何穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)等問題。 圍繞這些問題，21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)報道專訪了中國能源研究會常務(wù)副理事長、國家發(fā)展改革委能源研究所原所長周大地。他認(rèn)為，目前在一些能源轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵問題上，還沒能形成統(tǒng)一觀點(diǎn)，但推動能源結(jié)構(gòu)向以非化石能源為主的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)變，時間緊迫，需要盡快消除其中的體制性障礙或者市場競爭性障礙。 另一方面，應(yīng)該加快發(fā)展能源需求量較大地區(qū)的分布式可再生能源，其社會成本較大，需要重新組織隊(duì)伍、構(gòu)建商業(yè)模式，妥善解決相應(yīng)的成本負(fù)擔(dān)和利益分享問題。 
碳市場目的是促進(jìn)限排減排 
《21世紀(jì)》：制定碳達(dá)峰碳中和行動計劃時，在頂層設(shè)計上還有哪些重點(diǎn)問題需要加快解決？ 
周大地：我覺得首先是幾次中央的關(guān)鍵會議上，包括中央財經(jīng)委會議、碳達(dá)峰碳中和工作領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組第一次全體會議等，不但系統(tǒng)性地明確了“雙碳”目標(biāo)概念，還為實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰碳中和確定了大方向，而且對具體的行動方案計劃進(jìn)行了組織落實(shí)。 接下來就需要對各行各業(yè)、各個領(lǐng)域制定具體的指導(dǎo)計劃。有關(guān)部門正在制定詳細(xì)的相關(guān)工作指導(dǎo)意見。 具體到碳市場建設(shè)，實(shí)際上它并不是“雙碳”目標(biāo)以后才提出的。從2013年開始，在全國七省市的碳交易試點(diǎn)，我們就已經(jīng)取得了很多經(jīng)驗(yàn)，也對如何建立完備的碳市場體系有了比較清晰的認(rèn)識。 建立碳交易市場，目的是引導(dǎo)重點(diǎn)排放企業(yè)限排減排。而發(fā)放排放配額并逐漸收緊，則是碳交易市場建設(shè)的起點(diǎn)。碳市場的建設(shè)重點(diǎn)不是以市場交易為主，而是以排放配額和相應(yīng)的核查監(jiān)督體系建設(shè)為主。也就是說，交易不是目的，促進(jìn)限排減排才是目的。 現(xiàn)階段我們從占全國排放超過40%的電力體系出發(fā)，下一步還會繼續(xù)向其他的八大高耗能行業(yè)進(jìn)行推廣，使具體的低碳減排行動落實(shí)到這些重點(diǎn)排放企業(yè)里面去。 碳達(dá)峰碳中和行動，會涉及各行各業(yè)。在實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰的過程中，要將行動計劃、具體措施和時間表，切實(shí)地落實(shí)到每個省，每個市，甚至每個縣。 我個人認(rèn)為，在碳達(dá)峰階段需要抓以下幾條： 

第一，在達(dá)峰過程中，要防止高碳的產(chǎn)業(yè)的盲目擴(kuò)張，要防止出現(xiàn)“攀高峰”現(xiàn)象。 
第二，碳達(dá)峰過程中要加強(qiáng)節(jié)能減排。嚴(yán)格來講，前一段時間多數(shù)地方在提高能效上還是有所放松。我們的目標(biāo)是要在使用更少的能源與碳排放的情況下，達(dá)到同樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)。但是，目前能源供應(yīng)較為充足，有一些地方還怕企業(yè)少用能源，少用電。所以，節(jié)能減排不管在碳達(dá)峰還是碳中和階段都是重要的工作內(nèi)容，會起到相當(dāng)大的作用，這件事要抓緊。 
第三，應(yīng)該推動非化石能源加快發(fā)展。因?yàn)樽詈蠼鉀Q問題還是要從能源結(jié)構(gòu)上轉(zhuǎn)換成為非化石能源，時間很緊迫，所以要加快發(fā)展非化石能源。這項(xiàng)工作不能“一窩蜂”，但確實(shí)要快速解決相應(yīng)的體制性障礙或者市場障礙。 
第四，對于已經(jīng)技術(shù)成熟可以大規(guī)模推廣的低碳產(chǎn)品，特別是汽車電動化和超低能耗建筑等，要加快其市場發(fā)展。 
《21世紀(jì)》：到目前為止，全國碳市場在啟動交易之后的表現(xiàn)如何？ 
周大地：剛開市第一天的交易狀況不錯，我們不指望碳市場過于熱鬧。有一點(diǎn)需要大家明白的是，不能主要靠交易解決排放問題，交易只是對于配額分配不完全均衡的一種補(bǔ)充。而真正能夠解決問題的做法還是提高效率、技術(shù)水平，從技術(shù)改造來減少排放，這應(yīng)是努力的方向。 
隨著低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的進(jìn)展，以后配額量會逐年減少，排放總量終歸要降為零。 
所以我們要不斷推進(jìn)結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整，更多地使用新能源。目前配額比較寬松的條件下，不應(yīng)該有非常大量的交易。如果碳價低，而且交易量比較大，說明配額偏松，一些企業(yè)明顯有富余。這會使不少企業(yè)想通過交易解決排放限額，放松減排限排約束，有違碳市場的初衷。碳交易機(jī)制主要還是要鼓勵大家力爭自主完成限排減排任務(wù)。 
能源轉(zhuǎn)型技術(shù)要先行 
《21世紀(jì)》：為順利達(dá)成2030年碳達(dá)峰的階段性目標(biāo)，從全局視角來講，接下來應(yīng)該做哪些政策和體系上的重點(diǎn)安排？ 
周大地：因?yàn)槟壳耙恍╆P(guān)鍵問題上觀點(diǎn)并不完全都統(tǒng)一，比如說電力需求快速增長，可再生能源發(fā)展加快后，是否需要煤電來做支撐？ 
這看起來是一個悖論，因?yàn)槲覀冊缤硪^渡到基本上沒有煤電的狀態(tài)，所以結(jié)構(gòu)性上還是會有重大變化。其中有些問題需要通過新的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新解決，包括電力系統(tǒng)要充分利用數(shù)字技術(shù)，也包括用戶端用電模式的轉(zhuǎn)變，這樣才能將以可再生能源為主的電力系統(tǒng)建設(shè)起來，在技術(shù)創(chuàng)新上首先要加快。 
再就是很多行業(yè)，特別是工業(yè)領(lǐng)域，要一下過渡到低碳技術(shù)，現(xiàn)在看來還不太成熟。這還需要在今后一段時間內(nèi)進(jìn)行更多研發(fā)、創(chuàng)新和示范。但也有一些行業(yè)，比如電動汽車，是較為明確的，應(yīng)該加快發(fā)展。因?yàn)椴还軓膫鹘y(tǒng)的污染排放治理，還是從提高能源效率看，電動車都有優(yōu)勢。 
當(dāng)技術(shù)比較成熟，可以進(jìn)行市場競爭時，就應(yīng)加快推廣。同時，相關(guān)部門還要為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、例如充電樁建設(shè)等方面做更多細(xì)化工作。 
要想真正實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳化，能源體系要從現(xiàn)在84%化石能源轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)?0%以上可再生能源，時間緊迫，要加快進(jìn)程。那么就要盡快加快新能源發(fā)展，主要是風(fēng)電、太陽能，以及水電、核能。這些都要求電力系統(tǒng)加快改革和技術(shù)改造。 
一次能源要從化石能源轉(zhuǎn)換成零碳能源，主要通過非化石能源的一次電力。工業(yè)用能低碳化未來則主要通過電氣化實(shí)現(xiàn)。如果電力系統(tǒng)依舊是煤電占據(jù)主流，那工業(yè)的電氣化也實(shí)現(xiàn)不了減碳目的，反而有可能增加碳排放。工業(yè)領(lǐng)域低碳技術(shù)路線正在逐漸清晰，但是具體到每個行業(yè)、部門、技術(shù)該如何落實(shí)，特別是分步實(shí)施的先后順序，還需要分別制定更詳細(xì)的工作計劃。當(dāng)前要在節(jié)能降耗、低碳零碳技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)示范等方面多下功夫。 
《21世紀(jì)》：在實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰碳中和目標(biāo)的過程中，部分地方財政、經(jīng)濟(jì)對能源或鋼鐵等重點(diǎn)行業(yè)依賴性較高，該如何幫助這些地方做好轉(zhuǎn)型？如何更好地發(fā)揮地方或城市的力量？ 
周大地：限制“兩高”或節(jié)能減排，并不是要把鋼鐵等高排放產(chǎn)業(yè)都關(guān)掉。以鋼鐵行業(yè)為例，鋼鐵生產(chǎn)的現(xiàn)有市場要重新考慮定位。今年5月開始一般的鋼材出口已經(jīng)不退稅了，這是應(yīng)該的，甚至以后我們還可以考慮加點(diǎn)稅。 不但高耗能產(chǎn)品低價出口的狀況要扭轉(zhuǎn)，高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè)的增量也會有變化。相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)在產(chǎn)量上可以說已經(jīng)達(dá)峰了，所以未來我們主要面臨的是存量問題。 
依靠這些存量來支撐發(fā)展的省市，未來確實(shí)會面臨產(chǎn)業(yè)縮小甚至消失的風(fēng)險。但我們在碳中和目標(biāo)到來之前，有二三十年的時間來進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)換。所以只要方向正確，不去繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大風(fēng)險，現(xiàn)有的產(chǎn)能資本應(yīng)該可以得到合理回報和及時轉(zhuǎn)移。在現(xiàn)階段傳統(tǒng)慣性發(fā)展模式下面臨一些困難也很正常，但產(chǎn)業(yè)整體上的轉(zhuǎn)換是必然的。這不是低碳轉(zhuǎn)型才觸及的問題，也不是只有中國才會面臨的問題。 市場不會一成不變，鋼鐵行業(yè)也不可能總是維持十幾億噸的高產(chǎn)量，總有人要退出去。煤炭方面也已經(jīng)有其他國家和地區(qū)提出清零了，依賴煤炭生產(chǎn)的地方要進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整、轉(zhuǎn)型。這是早晚要發(fā)生的事，所以要積極主動來應(yīng)對產(chǎn)業(yè)更新。地方需要不斷學(xué)習(xí)，準(zhǔn)備技術(shù)儲備、重新投資、創(chuàng)新，要尋找新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn)。地方需要認(rèn)清這一點(diǎn)，不能只想著維持甚至擴(kuò)大現(xiàn)有高碳生產(chǎn)。 
       我們應(yīng)該盡可能有效利用現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)能，要防止盲目投資、新增低效無效甚至是負(fù)效產(chǎn)能。新投資要在新的產(chǎn)業(yè)、生產(chǎn)動力和發(fā)展動力上下功夫。 《21世紀(jì)》：前不久有關(guān)部門也通知開展“整縣屋頂分布式光伏開發(fā)試點(diǎn)”，如何看待分布式可再生能源項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展？ 周大地：要加快可再生能源發(fā)展，這是一定的。目前真正可能缺電的是中東部，所以中東部可再生能源資源的充分開發(fā)意義重大。而在中東部，可利用的空余土地面積并不多，所以要充分利用農(nóng)村或縣級的房屋房頂和可利用的空間資源，整縣推進(jìn)分布式光伏。這是件好事，對加快開發(fā)中東部的風(fēng)光資源來說很有意義，也比集中式可再生能源發(fā)電場資源更豐富。 不過，在執(zhí)行過程中，還有很多可不斷改善的地方。大企業(yè)要積極投入，也要把農(nóng)民動員起來，并且相關(guān)項(xiàng)目要和農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村發(fā)展更好地結(jié)合。但總的來看，鼓勵能源企業(yè)去推進(jìn)中東部縣級的全覆蓋網(wǎng)點(diǎn)，方向完全正確。 
      相比建造大型電廠，分布式能源很分散，社會成本很大，需要去動員千家萬戶、征得使用屋頂?shù)耐?，設(shè)置可以共用的設(shè)施布點(diǎn)，還要面對利益合理分配、調(diào)動各方積極性、更有效持續(xù)運(yùn)行等挑戰(zhàn)。相信大型的能源企業(yè)一定可以通過相關(guān)項(xiàng)目，更多地擴(kuò)展業(yè)務(wù)空間，完善商業(yè)模式，進(jìn)一步適應(yīng)大規(guī)模多元化發(fā)展新能源的發(fā)展需求。
來源：國際能源研究中心

The 14th Five-Year Plan period is an important window for China to promote energy transformation and green development. The process of energy transformation will accelerate in this five-year period, but at the same time, there are still problems such as unbalanced local development, slowing down the process of energy conservation and emission reduction, insufficient implementation of the action plan, and how to steadily promote the carbon market. On these issues, the 21st Century Business Herald interviewed Zhou Dadi, executive vice president of the China Energy Research Society and former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. He believes that at present, there is no unified view on some key issues of energy transition, but time is pressing to promote the transformation of energy structure to non-fossil energy structure, and it is necessary to remove institutional barriers or market competition barriers as soon as possible.On the other hand, we should accelerate the development of distributed renewable energy in areas with large energy demand, which has a high social cost. It is necessary to reorganize the team, build a business model, and properly solve the corresponding cost burden and benefit sharing problems.

Carbon markets are designed to help limit emissions

21ST century: What are the top level design priorities that need to be addressed quickly when developing a carbon neutral action plan?

Zhou dadi: I think first of all, is the key to several times the central meeting, including the central financial committee meeting, carbon carbon neutral work leading group of peak first plenary meeting, etc., not only systematically clarified the concept of "double carbon" target, also for the realization of the carbon carbon neutral determines the direction of peak, and the specific organization to carry out the action plan. The next step is to develop specific guidance plans for each industry and field.Relevant departments are working out detailed guidance on relevant work. As for the construction of a carbon market, in fact, it is not only proposed after the "dual carbon" target.Since 2013, we have gained a lot of experience in carbon trading pilot projects in seven provinces and cities across the country, and have a clear understanding of how to establish a complete carbon market system. The purpose of establishing a carbon trading market is to guide key emitting enterprises to limit emissions and reduce emissions.Issuing emission quotas and gradually tightening them is the starting point for the construction of a carbon trading market. The construction of carbon market focuses not on market trading, but on emission quota and corresponding verification and supervision system construction. In other words, trading is not the goal, but promoting emission reduction. At present, we will start from the power system, which accounts for more than 40% of China's emissions. In the next step, we will continue to promote to other eight energy-intensive industries, so that specific low-carbon emission reduction actions will be implemented in these key emitters.Peak Carbon neutrality will involve all industries.In the process of reaching carbon peak, action plans, specific measures and timetables should be implemented in every province, city and even county.Personally, I think the following points should be taken into consideration in the carbon peak stage:

First, in the process of reaching the peak, to prevent the blind expansion of high-carbon industries, to prevent the phenomenon of "peak climbing".

Second, energy conservation and emission reduction should be strengthened in the process of carbon peak.Strictly speaking, most places have been easing up on energy efficiency for some time now. The goal is to achieve the same economic growth goals while using less energy and carbon emissions.However, the current energy supply is relatively sufficient, and some localities are afraid of enterprises using less energy and less electricity. Therefore, energy conservation and emission reduction is an important part of the work, no matter in the carbon peak or carbon neutral stage, will play a considerable role, this matter should be accelerated.

Third, we should accelerate the development of non-fossil energy.Because the final solution to the problem is to switch from the energy mix to non-fossil energy, time is very tight, so we should speed up the development of non-fossil energy. This work cannot be done in a rush, but it is necessary to quickly solve the corresponding institutional or market obstacles.

Fourth, we should accelerate the market development of low-carbon products that have mature technologies and can be widely promoted, especially the electrification of automobiles and ultra-low energy buildings.

21ST century: How has the national carbon market fared so far since its launch?

Zhou Dadi: The first day of trading was good. We don't expect the carbon market to be too busy.One thing that needs to be understood is that emissions cannot be solved primarily by trading. Trading is only a supplement to the imperfectly balanced allocation of quotas. The real way to solve the problem is to improve efficiency and technological level, and reduce emissions through technological transformation, which should be the direction of efforts.

With the progress of low-carbon transition, the quota will be reduced year by year in the future, and the total emissions will eventually be reduced to zero.

That is why we must continue to push forward structural adjustment and make greater use of new energy.There should not be a lot of trading under the current relaxed quota conditions. If the carbon price is low, and the trading volume is relatively large, indicating that the quota is loose, some enterprises obviously have surplus.This will make many enterprises want to solve the emission quota through trading and relax the restriction of emission reduction, which is contrary to the original intention of the carbon market. The main purpose of the carbon trading system is to encourage people to limit and reduce emissions on their own.

Energy transition technology should take the lead

21st Century: In order to achieve the phased goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030, from an overall perspective, what should be the next policy and system priorities?

Zhou Dadi: At present, there is not a complete consensus on some key issues, such as the rapid growth of electricity demand and the rapid development of renewable energy, whether coal power is needed to support?

This seems like a paradox, because sooner or later we're going to have to move to basically no coal power, so there's going to be a big structural change. Some of these problems need to be solved through new technological innovation, including the full use of digital technology in the power system, but also the transformation of the user side of the electricity pattern, so as to build the power system based on renewable energy, technological innovation must be accelerated first.

In addition, many industries, especially industry, need to make the transition to low-carbon technologies, which are not yet mature.This will require more RESEARCH and development, innovation and demonstration over the coming period.But there are some sectors, such as electric cars, that are more clear-cut and should be accelerated. Because no matter from the traditional pollution emission control, or from improving energy efficiency, electric vehicles have advantages.

When the technology is more mature, can carry on the market competition, should accelerate the promotion.At the same time, more detailed work should be done on infrastructure, such as charging piles.

In order to truly achieve low carbon, the energy system should be transformed from the current 84% fossil energy to over 90% renewable energy. Time is pressing and the process should be accelerated. So we need to accelerate the development of new energy as soon as possible, mainly wind power, solar energy, hydropower, nuclear energy.All these require the power system to accelerate the reform and technical transformation.

Primary energy should be converted from fossil energy to zero-carbon energy mainly through primary electricity from non-fossil energy. The low carbonization of industrial energy will be realized mainly through electrification.If the power system continues to be dominated by coal, electrification of industry will not reduce carbon emissions and may increase them. The path of low-carbon technology in the industrial sector is gradually becoming clear, but more detailed work plans need to be made on how each industry, sector and technology should be implemented, especially the sequence of step-by-step implementation.At present, more efforts should be made in energy conservation, energy consumption reduction, low-carbon and zero-carbon technological innovation, and technological demonstration.

21st Century: In the process of achieving carbon neutrality, some local governments are highly dependent on key industries such as energy and steel. How can they be helped to make the transition? How to better harness the power of local or city?

Zhou Dadi: Limiting the consumption of energy, energy, and emissions does not mean shutting down all industries with high emissions, such as steel. Take the steel industry as an example, the existing market of steel production should be reconsidered.Since may this year, general steel exports have not tax rebates, this is should, and even later we can consider adding tax. Not only will the situation of low-price export of energy-intensive products be reversed, but also the increment of energy-intensive industries will be changed.Related industries in terms of output can be said to have reached a peak, so we will mainly face the stock problem in the future.

Provinces and cities that rely on these stocks to support development will indeed face the risk of shrinking or even disappearing industries in the future. But we have 20 or 30 years to transform the industry before carbon neutrality.Therefore, as long as the direction is correct and risks are not further expanded, the existing capacity capital should be reasonably returned and transferred in a timely manner. It is normal to face some difficulties under the traditional inertia development mode at the present stage, but the transformation of the industry as a whole is inevitable. This is not a problem only faced by the low-carbon transition, nor is it a problem only faced by China.The market will not stay the same, and the steel industry will not always be able to produce billions of tons of steel. Someone will have to quit. In terms of coal production, other countries and regions have proposed the elimination of coal production, and local industries that depend on coal production should carry out industrial adjustment and transformation.This is going to happen sooner or later, so be proactive in responding to industrial renewal. Local governments need to keep learning, prepare technological reserves, reinvest, innovate and find new economic growth points.Localities need to recognise this and not just focus on maintaining or even expanding existing high-carbon production.

We should make the best use of existing production capacity and prevent blind investment or the addition of inefficient, ineffective or even negative production capacity. New investment should focus on new industries, driving forces for production and development."21st Century" : not long ago, relevant departments also announced the launch of "the whole county rooftop distributed photovoltaic development pilot", how to view the development of distributed renewable energy projects? Zhou Dadi: It is certain that we will accelerate the development of renewable energy.It is the central and eastern regions that are really likely to be short of electricity, so the full development of renewable energy resources in the central and eastern regions is of great significance. In the middle and east, the available free land area is not much, so it is necessary to make full use of rural or county-level house roofs and available space resources to promote distributed photovoltaic throughout the county.That's a good thing, and it makes sense to accelerate the development of the landscape in the east and central, which is richer than centralized renewable energy farms. However, there is still a lot of room for improvement in implementation.Large enterprises should be actively involved, farmers should also be mobilized, and related projects should be better integrated with agricultural and rural development. But in general, encouraging energy companies to push forward with full coverage of county-level networks in central and eastern China is in the right direction.

Compared with the construction of large power plants, distributed energy is highly dispersed and has high social costs. It requires mobilizing thousands of households, obtaining permission to use the roof, setting up facilities that can be shared, and facing challenges such as rational distribution of benefits, mobilization of the enthusiasm of all parties, and more efficient and sustainable operation. It is believed that large-scale energy enterprises can expand their business space, improve their business models and further adapt to the development needs of large-scale and diversified development of new energy through relevant projects.

Source: International Energy Research Center