碳交易助推碳經(jīng)濟(jì)，哪些產(chǎn)業(yè)將受益？我們判斷CCER將會(huì)在加強(qiáng)限制條件下重啟，現(xiàn)有仍需補(bǔ)貼的減排行業(yè)有望待重啟后獲得碳資產(chǎn)交易的增量收益，主要受益行業(yè)包括垃圾焚燒、新能源運(yùn)營(yíng)商。此外，碳交易有望加速能源結(jié)構(gòu)的低碳化轉(zhuǎn)型，低碳能源類資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值中長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)向上。
自 2013 年起，我國(guó)陸續(xù)建立起北京、天津、上海、重慶、湖北、廣東、深圳等地的碳排放試點(diǎn)市場(chǎng)，在區(qū)域內(nèi)的碳排放總量和強(qiáng)度控制方面取得顯著效果。自2020年以來(lái)，建立全國(guó)碳排放交易系統(tǒng)相關(guān)的政策加速出臺(tái)，2021 年7月16日全國(guó)碳排放權(quán)交易市場(chǎng)正式上線。初始階段，碳交易僅涉及電力行業(yè)，同時(shí)生態(tài)環(huán)境部要求加強(qiáng)企業(yè)溫室氣體排放報(bào)告管理相關(guān)工作，工作范圍包括發(fā)電、石化、化工、建材、鋼鐵、有色、造紙、航空等重點(diǎn)排放行業(yè)，預(yù)計(jì)八大高耗能行業(yè)有望逐步納入全國(guó)碳交易市場(chǎng)。，預(yù)計(jì)八大高耗能行業(yè)有望逐步納入全國(guó)碳交易市場(chǎng)。
01全球碳定價(jià)機(jī)制覆蓋面持續(xù)擴(kuò)張，歐盟配額供給大幅影響碳價(jià)
目前，全球各國(guó)家地區(qū)政府應(yīng)對(duì)行動(dòng)中最重要的措施是通過(guò)對(duì)碳排放定價(jià)以控制溫室氣體排放。據(jù)世界銀行發(fā)布的《2020年碳定價(jià)現(xiàn)狀與趨勢(shì)報(bào)告》，全球已實(shí)施或規(guī)劃61項(xiàng)碳定價(jià)機(jī)制，包括31個(gè)碳市場(chǎng)交易體系（ETS）和30個(gè)碳稅機(jī)制，涵蓋了全球22%的溫室氣體排放。同時(shí)，全球碳價(jià)差異巨大，從低于1美元到超過(guò)100美元不等，而中國(guó)各試點(diǎn)市場(chǎng)碳價(jià)普遍大幅低于全球平均水平?；仡櫄W盟碳排放權(quán)交易系統(tǒng)（EU-ETS）的發(fā)展歷程，配額供給機(jī)制對(duì)碳價(jià)影響重大。EU-ETS是世界首個(gè)主要的碳排放交易市場(chǎng)，涵蓋約40%的歐盟溫室氣體排放，其發(fā)展歷程可分為4個(gè)階段。
第一階段（2005-2007年），由于供給過(guò)剩且階段1的EUA無(wú)法跨階段使用，價(jià)格曾大幅暴跌至0.01歐元/噸。
第二階段（2008-2012年）的配額供給較多，疊加CERs的沖擊，導(dǎo)致價(jià)格持續(xù)下降至10歐元/噸以下。
第三階段（2013-2020年），供給逐步收緊，2018年后碳價(jià)明顯回升，主要措施包括配額每年線性減少1.74%；拍賣比例逐年提高，電力行業(yè)100%拍賣，制造業(yè)的免費(fèi)比例從80%逐年遞減至30%；信用抵減限制加強(qiáng)，自2013年起歐盟要求CDM只能來(lái)自全球最不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家；2019年初正式啟動(dòng)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定儲(chǔ)備機(jī)制（MSR），2019-2023年間24%的剩余配額將放入MSR減少供給。
第四階段（2021-2030年），配額減少幅度進(jìn)一步加大。在供給的持續(xù)縮減下，歐盟碳價(jià)自2021年初以來(lái)大幅上漲至50歐元/噸以上。
02碳交易驅(qū)動(dòng)高耗能行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局加速優(yōu)化，高能效龍頭將受益
從試點(diǎn)到全國(guó)，我國(guó)7月正式啟動(dòng)發(fā)電行業(yè)全國(guó)碳交易市場(chǎng)。自2013年起，我國(guó)陸續(xù)建立起北京、天津、上海、重慶、湖北、廣東、深圳等地的碳排放試點(diǎn)市場(chǎng)，在區(qū)域內(nèi)的碳排放總量和強(qiáng)度控制方面取得顯著效果。自2020年以來(lái)，建立全國(guó)碳排放交易系統(tǒng)的相關(guān)政策加速出臺(tái)，2021年7月16日全國(guó)碳排放權(quán)交易市場(chǎng)正式上線，初始階段僅涉及電力行業(yè)，預(yù)計(jì)發(fā)電、石化、化工、建材、鋼鐵、有色、造紙、航空等八大重點(diǎn)排放行業(yè)將逐步納入全國(guó)碳交易市場(chǎng)。
碳交易驅(qū)動(dòng)高耗能行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局加速優(yōu)化，高能效龍頭將受益。根據(jù)生態(tài)環(huán)境部于2021年3月發(fā)布的《關(guān)于加強(qiáng)企業(yè)溫室氣體排放報(bào)告管理相關(guān)工作的通知》，2021年9月30日前應(yīng)完成發(fā)電行業(yè)重點(diǎn)排放單位2019-2020年度的配額核定工作，2021年12月31日前完成配額的清繳履約工作。2019-2020年度配額的分配采用基準(zhǔn)值法，配額總量自下而上加總確定，實(shí)行全部免費(fèi)分配。
配額和實(shí)際排放數(shù)據(jù)之間的差異，構(gòu)成碳資產(chǎn)或履約缺口。對(duì)于發(fā)電設(shè)施的溫室氣體實(shí)際排放情況，主要通過(guò)獲取和計(jì)算發(fā)電量、供電量、供熱量、供熱比、供電煤（氣）耗、供熱煤（氣）耗、供電碳排放強(qiáng)度、供熱碳排放強(qiáng)度、運(yùn)行小時(shí)數(shù)和負(fù)荷（出力）系數(shù)等生產(chǎn)信息和數(shù)據(jù)，確定排放因子，并定期報(bào)告排放數(shù)據(jù)，之后再依據(jù)核定結(jié)果完成配額的清繳履約義務(wù)。
碳交易將直接影響高耗能行業(yè)的利潤(rùn)。以電力行業(yè)為例，基于假設(shè)條件，如按300MW以上常規(guī)燃煤機(jī)組測(cè)算，暫不考慮供熱和修正系數(shù)的影響，假設(shè)度電收入0.4元、毛利率參考2021年5月電力熱力生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)毛利率當(dāng)季值10.79%，若碳價(jià)為50元/噸，在履約缺口上限情景下對(duì)應(yīng)碳排超過(guò)基準(zhǔn)值25%，則發(fā)電的毛利潤(rùn)將至多下降25.40%。同時(shí)，低能耗優(yōu)質(zhì)機(jī)組則有望受益于碳資產(chǎn)的交易價(jià)值，在碳價(jià)50元/噸、單位碳排低于基準(zhǔn)值10%的情景下增厚毛利潤(rùn)10.16%。在碳交易的影響下，高耗能行業(yè)中存量產(chǎn)能的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局將加速優(yōu)化，具有能效優(yōu)勢(shì)的優(yōu)質(zhì)企業(yè)將受益于碳資產(chǎn)的增量收益。
03CCER或在加強(qiáng)限制條件下重啟，
垃圾焚燒、新能源運(yùn)營(yíng)商將受益
CCER目前處于暫停簽發(fā)狀態(tài)，項(xiàng)目開發(fā)需進(jìn)行額外性論證。中國(guó)核證減排量（CCER）是基于中國(guó)溫室氣體自愿減排計(jì)劃，根據(jù)可再生能源、林業(yè)碳匯、甲烷利用等項(xiàng)目的溫室氣體減排效果進(jìn)行量化的核證。2013-2017年國(guó)家發(fā)改委公示CCER審定項(xiàng)目共2871個(gè)，備案項(xiàng)目861個(gè)，減排量備案項(xiàng)目254個(gè)。2017年3月，國(guó)家發(fā)改委公告暫緩受理CCER方法學(xué)、項(xiàng)目、減排量及備案的申請(qǐng)。CCER項(xiàng)目的開發(fā)流程沿襲了CDM的思路，主要包括項(xiàng)目文件設(shè)計(jì)、項(xiàng)目審定、項(xiàng)目備案、項(xiàng)目實(shí)施與監(jiān)測(cè)、減排量核查與核證、減排量簽發(fā)等步驟。值得注意的是，CCER項(xiàng)目開發(fā)需進(jìn)行額外性論證，即項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)所帶來(lái)的減排量相對(duì)于基準(zhǔn)線是否為額外的，項(xiàng)目及其減排量在沒(méi)有外來(lái)的CCER項(xiàng)目支持情況下是否存在財(cái)務(wù)效益指標(biāo)、融資渠道、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)普及和資源條件方面的障礙因素，依靠項(xiàng)目業(yè)主的現(xiàn)有條件難以實(shí)現(xiàn)。
現(xiàn)有的254個(gè)減排量備案項(xiàng)目主要涉及風(fēng)電、光伏、沼氣利用等行業(yè)，其中生活垃圾焚燒的減排量備案項(xiàng)目共涉及4個(gè)，現(xiàn)有審定階段的2871個(gè)項(xiàng)目中，生活垃圾焚燒項(xiàng)目共74個(gè)。根據(jù)4個(gè)垃圾焚燒項(xiàng)目的備案減排量信息測(cè)算，單位減排量為0.35-1.25噸CO2/MWh，在40元/噸的價(jià)格假設(shè)下可增厚度電收入0.014-0.05元。
各試點(diǎn)碳交易市場(chǎng)的信用抵消限制條件各異，CCER二級(jí)交易主要在上海和廣東市場(chǎng)，以協(xié)議轉(zhuǎn)讓方式交易為主，各項(xiàng)CCER之間差異化程度較高。停止簽發(fā)導(dǎo)致CCER供給受限，近期部分交易價(jià)格上漲明顯。2020年上海碳市場(chǎng)可履約CCER均價(jià)為20.35元/噸，同比增長(zhǎng)175.76%；2021年7月廣東CCER（履約）交易價(jià)格上漲至超過(guò)45元/噸。
我們對(duì)CCER年履約需求量進(jìn)行了測(cè)算，估算電力行業(yè)碳排放量約46.50億噸，按全國(guó)碳市場(chǎng)5%的信用抵消比例上限，則CCER年履約需求上限為2.33億噸。由于目前254個(gè)項(xiàng)目的已備案減排量?jī)H0.51億噸，現(xiàn)有存量CCER的供給嚴(yán)重不足，但若全面放開CCER則存在供給過(guò)剩、沖擊碳價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，我們判斷CCER將會(huì)在加強(qiáng)限制條件下重啟，現(xiàn)有仍需補(bǔ)貼的減排行業(yè)有望待重啟后獲得碳資產(chǎn)交易的增量收益，主要受益行業(yè)包括垃圾焚燒、新能源運(yùn)營(yíng)商。此外，碳交易有望加速能源結(jié)構(gòu)的低碳化轉(zhuǎn)型，低碳能源類資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值中長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)向上。
在碳交易的影響下，高耗能行業(yè)中存量產(chǎn)能的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局將加速優(yōu)化，具有能效優(yōu)勢(shì)的優(yōu)質(zhì)企業(yè)將受益于碳資產(chǎn)的增量收益，可關(guān)注清潔供暖行業(yè)；CCER 或在加強(qiáng)限制條件下重啟，現(xiàn)有仍需補(bǔ)貼的減排行業(yè)有望待 CCER 重啟后獲得碳資產(chǎn)交易的增量收益，建議關(guān)注垃圾焚燒行業(yè)、新能源運(yùn)營(yíng)行業(yè)；碳交易有望加速能源結(jié)構(gòu)的低碳化轉(zhuǎn)型，低碳能源類資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值中長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)向上，可以關(guān)注水電行業(yè)。

Carbon trading boosts carbon economy. Which industries will benefit?

Original CAI Yi Li Chunchi new wealth July 29

We judge that CCER will be restarted under strengthened restrictions, and existing emission reduction industries that still need subsidies are expected to gain incremental gains from carbon asset trading after the restart, mainly benefiting industries including waste incineration and new energy operators. In addition, carbon trading is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of energy structure, and the value of low-carbon energy assets is upward in the medium and long term.

Since 2013, China has successively established pilot carbon emission markets in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen, which have achieved remarkable results in controlling the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in the region. Since 2020, policies related to the establishment of a national carbon emission trading system have been accelerated, and the national carbon emission trading market will be officially launched on July 16, 2021. Initial stage, carbon trading involves only the power industry, ecological environment demand at the same time to strengthen enterprise management related report on greenhouse gas emissions, work include power generation, petrochemical industry, chemical industry, building materials, steel, non-ferrous, papermaking, aviation and other key industries, is expected to eight energy-intensive industry is expected to be gradually incorporated into the national carbon trading market. , eight energy-intensive industries are expected to be gradually incorporated into the national carbon trading market.

The coverage of the global carbon pricing mechanism continues to expand, and the supply of eu quotas significantly affects the carbon price

At present, the most important response of governments around the world is to control greenhouse gas emissions by putting a price on carbon emissions.According to the 2020 Carbon Pricing Status and Trends Report released by the World Bank, 61 carbon pricing mechanisms have been implemented or planned globally, including 31 carbon market trading systems (ETS) and 30 carbon tax mechanisms, covering 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, global carbon prices vary widely, from less than $1 to more than $100, with prices in China's pilot markets generally well below the global average. Reviewing the development of EU carbon emission trading system (EU-ETS), the quota supply mechanism has a significant impact on carbon price. Eu-ets is the world's first major carbon emissions trading market, covering about 40% of THE EU's greenhouse gas emissions, and has developed in four stages.

In the first phase (2005-2007), the price plummeted to 0.01 euro/ton due to oversupply and the inability of phase 1 EUA to be used across phases.

During the second phase (2008-2012), there was a large supply of quotas and the impact of CERs caused the price to continue to fall below €10 / tonne.

In the third stage (2013-2020), the supply gradually tightened, and the carbon price recovered significantly after 2018. The main measures included the linear reduction of quota by 1.74% annually. The proportion of auction increased year by year, 100% auction in the electric power industry, and the proportion of free manufacturing decreased from 80% to 30% year by year; Restrictions on credit credits have been strengthened. Since 2013, the European Union has required CDMS to come only from the world's least developed countries. The Market Stability Reserve Facility (MSR) was officially launched in early 2019, with 24% of the remaining quota from 2019 to 2023 put into MSR to reduce supply.

In the fourth phase (2021-2030), the quota reduction will be further increased.As supply continues to shrink, the EU carbon price has risen sharply to more than 50 euros per tonne since the beginning of 2021.

Carbon trading will accelerate the optimization of the competitive landscape in energy-intensive industries, and energy efficiency leaders will benefit

From pilot to nationwide, China officially launched the national carbon trading market in the power generation industry in July.Since 2013, China has successively established pilot carbon emission markets in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen, which have achieved remarkable results in controlling the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in the region. Since 2020, the establishment of related policies to accelerate the national carbon emissions trading system, July 16, 2021, the national carbon emissions trading market is launched, the initial phase involves only the power industry, is expected to power generation, petrochemical industry, chemical industry, building materials, steel, non-ferrous, papermaking, aviation, etc the eight key industries will be gradually incorporated into the national carbon trading market.

Carbon trading will accelerate the optimization of the competitive landscape in energy-intensive industries, and energy efficiency leaders will benefit.According to the Notice on Strengthening the Management of Enterprise Greenhouse Gas Emission Reporting issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in March 2021, the approval of the 2019-2020 quota of key emitters in the power generation industry should be completed by September 30, 2021, and the collection and implementation of the quota should be completed by December 31, 2021. The allocation of quotas for 2019-2020 will be based on the base value method, and the total quota amount will be determined from bottom to top, and all quotas will be allocated free of charge.

The difference between the quota and actual emissions data constitutes a carbon asset or compliance gap.For electricity generation of greenhouse gas emissions actual situation, mainly through the access and computing power, power supply, heat supply, heat supply than (gas), the power supply coal consumption (gas), heating coal consumption and heat power supply carbon intensity, carbon intensity, operation hours and coefficient of load (output) production information and data, determine the emission factor, and regularly report emissions data, And then according to the result of the approval to complete the quota settlement and performance obligations.

Carbon trading will directly affect the profits of energy-intensive industries.Taking the electric power industry as an example, based on the assumption that the revenue per kilowatt hour is 0.4 yuan and the gross profit rate is 10.79% in The quarter of Power and heat production and supply industry in May 2021, if the carbon price is 50 yuan/ton and the influence of heating and correction coefficient is not taken into account, If the carbon emission exceeds 25% of the base value under the scenario of the upper limit of the implementation gap, the gross profit of power generation will decrease by 25.40% at most. At the same time, low-energy high-quality units are expected to benefit from the transaction value of carbon assets, and the thickening gross profit is 10.16% when the carbon price is 50 yuan/ton and the unit carbon emission is 10% lower than the baseline value. Under the influence of carbon trading, the competitive landscape of stock capacity in energy-intensive industries will accelerate optimization, and high-quality enterprises with energy efficiency advantages will benefit from incremental gains from carbon assets.

03CCER or restart under enhanced restrictions,

Waste incineration, new energy operators will benefit

CCER is currently suspended, and additional demonstration is required for project development.China's Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) is based on China's voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction plan, which quantifies the greenhouse gas emission reduction effect of renewable energy, forestry carbon sequestration, methane utilization and other projects. From 2013 to 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission published a total of 2871 CCER approved projects, 861 projects for record, and 254 emission reduction projects for record. In March 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that applications for CCER methodology, projects, emission reduction and filing were suspended. The development process of CCER project follows the ideas of CDM, mainly including project document design, project approval, project record, project implementation and monitoring, emission reduction verification and certification, emission reduction issue and other steps.It is worth noting that the need to have additional arguments CCER project development, which brought by the project activity is relative to the baseline emissions reductions for extra, project and its emissions reductions under the condition of no extraneous CCER project support the existence of financial performance indicators, the financing channels, technology risk, market popularity and resource conditions of obstacles, Relying on the existing conditions of project owners is difficult to achieve.

The existing 254 emission reduction record projects mainly involve wind power, photovoltaic, biogas utilization and other industries, among which the emission reduction record projects of domestic waste incineration are involved in 4. Among the 2,871 projects in the current approval stage, 74 are domestic waste incineration projects. According to the recorded emission reduction information of the 4 MSW incineration projects, the unit emission reduction is 0.35-1.25 tons of CO2/MWh, and the thickness electricity income can be increased by 0.014-0.05 yuan under the assumption of 40 yuan/ton price.

The restrictions on credit offset in each pilot carbon trading market are different. CCER secondary trading is mainly conducted in Shanghai and Guangdong markets, and the transaction is mainly conducted in the form of agreement transfer. The degree of differentiation among ccers is relatively high. The suspension of CCER led to the limited supply of CCER, and the price of some transactions rose significantly recently.In 2020, the average enforceable CCER price in Shanghai carbon Market was 20.35 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 175.76%. In July 2021, guangdong CCER (performance) transaction price rose to more than 45 yuan/ton.

We calculate the annual demand for CCER performance, and estimate that the carbon emission of the power industry is about 4.650 billion tons. According to the upper limit of 5% credit offset ratio in the national carbon market, the upper limit of CCER performance demand is 233 million tons. As the registered emission reduction of 254 projects is only 51 million tons, the existing supply of CCER is seriously insufficient. However, if CCER is fully opened, there will be the risk of oversupply and impact on carbon price. Therefore, we judge that CCER will be restarted under strengthened restrictions, and existing emission reduction industries that still need subsidies are expected to gain incremental gains from carbon asset trading after the restart, mainly benefiting industries including waste incineration and new energy operators.In addition, carbon trading is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of energy structure, and the value of low-carbon energy assets is upward in the medium and long term.

Under the influence of carbon trading, the competition pattern of stock capacity in energy-intensive industries will accelerate optimization, and high-quality enterprises with energy efficiency advantages will benefit from the incremental income of carbon assets, so they can focus on clean heating industry. CCER may be restarted under strengthened restrictions. The existing emission reduction industries that still need subsidies are expected to gain incremental income from carbon asset trading after CCER restarts. It is suggested to focus on waste incineration industry and new energy operation industry.Carbon trading is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of energy structure, and the value of low-carbon energy assets tends to be upward in the medium and long term. Hydropower industry can be paid attention to.