1、今天半導(dǎo)體板塊受卓勝微影響，大跌，主要是卓勝微二季度業(yè)績未超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。
遠(yuǎn)期來看，卓勝微的成長驅(qū)動(dòng)力來自于射頻前端產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)突破和放量，但是公司需要面臨整體業(yè)績?cè)鏊傧禄彤?dāng)前高估值的匹配問題。
一、碳交易啟動(dòng)
7月14日，將舉行國務(wù)院政策例行吹風(fēng)會(huì)，介紹啟動(dòng) 全國碳排放權(quán)交易市場(chǎng)上線交易有關(guān)情況。結(jié)合全國碳市場(chǎng)下一步擴(kuò)大覆蓋范圍的需要，生態(tài)環(huán)境部已組織開展了相關(guān)行業(yè)企業(yè)的碳排放數(shù)據(jù)報(bào)告與核查工作，除發(fā)電行業(yè)以外，還涵蓋了建材、有色、鋼鐵、石化、化工、造紙、航空等。
目前來看，全國碳排放權(quán)交易市場(chǎng)正式上線在即，相關(guān)行業(yè)迎來強(qiáng)預(yù)期。
目前來看，碳交易上線后，有3個(gè)方向有望受益：
1）碳檢測(cè)，比如譜尼測(cè)試、雪迪龍等
2）能源，比如中閩能源、三峽能源、隆基股份、明陽智能、天合光能、長源電力等
3）碳交易相關(guān)的，比如岳陽林紙、福建金森等
二、磷礦石漲價(jià)
新能源汽車行業(yè)的高景氣度，帶動(dòng)了鋰電中游景氣度高企，而這是最近一個(gè)月以來鋰電強(qiáng)勢(shì)上漲的主要原因。
而隨著電解液、隔膜相關(guān)標(biāo)的的大漲，市場(chǎng)開始挖掘上游的相關(guān)分支。
近日，磷礦石主流地區(qū)參考均價(jià)在550元/噸附近，與6月1日（磷礦石參考均價(jià)510元/噸）價(jià)格相比，均價(jià)上調(diào)40元/噸，漲幅7.84%。
從市場(chǎng)信息了解來看，磷礦石供給目前較緊張，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格有望維持高位。
隨著磷酸鐵鋰重回鋰電正極材料主流，預(yù)期至2025年國內(nèi)需求將超100萬噸，且遠(yuǎn)期市場(chǎng)仍將維持較高增速增長。在此背景下，需求延“磷酸鐵鋰-磷酸鐵-高純磷酸和工業(yè)一銨-黃磷及磷肥-磷礦石”產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈向上游傳導(dǎo)。
磷礦石相關(guān)標(biāo)的有望受益，比如天原股份、司爾特等
三、玻璃
玻璃期貨突破3000大關(guān)，再創(chuàng)歷史新高，下半年是玻璃傳統(tǒng)的旺季，價(jià)格有望持續(xù)走強(qiáng)。
從產(chǎn)能來看，行業(yè)產(chǎn)能剛性，調(diào)節(jié)余地小，退出成本高，投產(chǎn)到結(jié)束要8-10年。今年21年到明年上半年產(chǎn)能達(dá)峰，產(chǎn)能置換政策想新增產(chǎn)能可能性為0，在碳中和大背景下，玻璃行業(yè)產(chǎn)能將維持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。
從行業(yè)集中度來看，行業(yè)集中度低，CR10 50-55%，十四五規(guī)劃行業(yè)集中度達(dá)到75%以上。
從庫存來看，上周13個(gè)主要省份浮法玻璃庫存環(huán)比下降3%至2000萬重量箱，扭轉(zhuǎn)了自5月下旬以來庫存連續(xù)六周增加的趨勢(shì)。
這是目前淡季背景下的庫存情況，從目前行業(yè)形勢(shì)來看，下半年，玻璃供需偏緊，相關(guān)標(biāo)的有望受益，比如旗濱集團(tuán)、南玻A、洛陽玻璃、亞瑪頓、福萊特等
四、點(diǎn)評(píng)
1、廣聯(lián)達(dá)
實(shí)現(xiàn)歸屬上市公司股東的凈利潤2.3億元-3億元，比去年同期增長76.89%-130.72%。公司業(yè)績超預(yù)期。
公司營收保持快速增長，數(shù)字造價(jià)業(yè)務(wù)云轉(zhuǎn)型全面覆蓋，新老區(qū)域收入均實(shí)現(xiàn)增長。公司數(shù)字造價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)型區(qū)域覆蓋進(jìn)入中后期，轉(zhuǎn)型帶來前期利潤波動(dòng)已過，表觀利潤逐步恢復(fù)。
公司數(shù)字造價(jià)業(yè)務(wù)云轉(zhuǎn)型順利推進(jìn)，后續(xù)或通過增值服務(wù)進(jìn)一步提升用戶ARPU值，數(shù)字施工業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)過前期調(diào)整和積累有望回到快速成長通道，數(shù)字設(shè)計(jì)布局長期成長曲線，整體成長方向清晰，成長路徑較為確定，持續(xù)增長可期。
2、中閩能源
公司未來5年海上風(fēng)電規(guī)模有望達(dá)目前在運(yùn)8.3倍。
公司專注于風(fēng)電/光伏/生物質(zhì)能等新能源發(fā)電業(yè)務(wù)，控股股東為省國資福建投資集團(tuán)，2020年末在建海上風(fēng)電11.4萬千瓦，投資集團(tuán)在建/籌建海上風(fēng)電31.2萬/50萬千瓦、在建抽蓄電站120萬千瓦，并承諾擇機(jī)進(jìn)行資產(chǎn)注入。
福建省風(fēng)力資源優(yōu)異，公司海風(fēng)項(xiàng)目資源儲(chǔ)備豐富，并且有福建投資集團(tuán)鼎力支持，看好公司在“十四五”期間海風(fēng)裝機(jī)容量有望實(shí)現(xiàn)跨越式增長，測(cè)算得出2025年以前公司海風(fēng)規(guī)模有望達(dá)150.8萬千瓦，是2020年末在運(yùn)海風(fēng)規(guī)模的8.3倍、總裝機(jī)規(guī)模的1.8倍。
3、傳長江存儲(chǔ)被封殺點(diǎn)評(píng)
在國產(chǎn)設(shè)備加持下，去美進(jìn)展已經(jīng)在55/28nm，也就意味著除了合肥長鑫（19/17nm）+中芯南方（14/10/7nm）是先進(jìn)制程工藝，其他95%的國內(nèi)晶圓廠將不受影響，因?yàn)閹缀跛衅渌A廠都在55/90/130nm工藝，長江存儲(chǔ)在（45-28nm）如果封殺禁令加劇，將會(huì)極大刺激國產(chǎn)設(shè)備需求和研發(fā)進(jìn)度.
五、個(gè)股
1、京東方A
預(yù)計(jì)2021年半年度歸母凈利125.00億元-127.00億元，同比增長1001%-1018%。上半年，公司成熟產(chǎn)線保持滿產(chǎn)滿銷，LCD主流應(yīng)用市占率繼續(xù)保持領(lǐng)先
2、江特電機(jī)
預(yù)計(jì)2021年半年度歸屬于上市公司股東的凈利潤1.75億元-1.85億元，同比增長6214.73%-6575.57%。碳酸鋰業(yè)務(wù)外部環(huán)境持續(xù)向好，下游需求增長,其銷售價(jià)格同比有較大幅度上漲
3、ST華鈺
預(yù)計(jì)上半年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤6680萬元-7200萬元，同比增長203.91%至227.57%
4、國軒高科
公司與大眾汽車集團(tuán)簽署《關(guān)于電池戰(zhàn)略合作關(guān)系的諒解備忘錄》，雙方旨在共同致力于建立一個(gè)完全清潔能源生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，用于生產(chǎn)動(dòng)力電池電芯和模組。
雙方擬合作開發(fā)用于在德國薩爾茨吉特生產(chǎn)的三元標(biāo)準(zhǔn)電芯，進(jìn)一步探討合作開發(fā)磷酸鐵鋰電芯（“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)電芯磷酸鐵鋰第一代”）。雙方將在歐洲建設(shè)零碳排放工廠，并將共同開發(fā)歐洲其他潛在的生產(chǎn)基地。雙方將在新能源汽車基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，電池梯次利用和電池回收，JTM、CTP、CTC等先進(jìn)技術(shù)的研發(fā)等領(lǐng)域開展合作。
5、龍星化工
預(yù)計(jì)2021年半年度歸母凈利1億元-1.30億元，同比增長3700.98%-4841.27%。
6、金浦鈦業(yè)
上修業(yè)績預(yù)告，預(yù)計(jì)上半年盈利1.1億元-1.15億元，同比增長1380%-1430%，此前預(yù)計(jì)增長1105%-1155%
7、新鳳鳴
預(yù)計(jì)上半年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤13億元-13.5億元，同比增長549%-574%
8、西藏珠峰
預(yù)計(jì)上半年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤3.9億元-4.3億元，同比增加225.05%-258.39%
9、電連技術(shù)
預(yù)計(jì)2021年半年度歸屬于上市公司股東的凈利潤18250萬元-19250萬元，同比增長113.52%-125.22%。
10、兔寶寶
預(yù)計(jì)上半年盈利2.9億元-3.3億元，同比增長577%-671%。

1. Today, the semiconductor sector fell sharply under the influence of Zw, mainly because the performance of ZW in the second quarter did not exceed market expectations.

In the long term, the growth driving force of Zw comes from the technological breakthrough and volume increase of rf front-end products, but the company needs to face the matching problem of the overall growth rate decline and the current high valuation.

First, carbon trading started

On July 14, a regular policy briefing of The State Council will be held to introduce the launch of the national carbon emission trading market.

To meet the needs of expanding the coverage of the national carbon market, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has organized the reporting and verification of carbon emission data of enterprises in related industries, including building materials, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, petrochemicals, chemical industry, paper making, aviation, etc.

At present, the official launch of the national carbon emission trading market is just around the corner, and the related industries have welcomed strong expectations.

At present, carbon trading is expected to benefit in three directions:

1) Carbon detection, such as Penny test, Sidelong, etc

2) Energy, such as Zhongmin Energy, Three Gorges Energy, Longji Stock, Mingyang Intelligent, Trina Solar energy, Changyuan Electric Power, etc

3) Related to carbon trading, such as Yueyang Lin Paper, Fujian Kinson, etc

Second, the price of phosphate ore

The high economic performance of the new energy vehicle industry has led to the high economic performance of the mid-stream lithium battery industry, which is the main reason for the strong growth of lithium battery industry in the last month.

With the rise of electrolyte and diaphragm related targets, the market began to dig upstream related branches.

Recently, the average reference price of phosphate ore in the mainstream area near 550 yuan/ton, compared with June 1 (the average reference price of phosphate ore 510 yuan/ton) price, the average price increased by 40 yuan/ton, or 7.84%.

Understanding from the market information, phosphate ore supply is relatively tight, the market price is expected to maintain high.

With the return of lithium iron phosphate to the mainstream of lithium cathode materials, the domestic demand is expected to exceed 1 million tons by 2025, and the long-term market will maintain a high growth rate. In this context, the demand for "lithium iron phosphate - iron phosphate - high purity phosphoric acid and industrial ammonium - yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer - phosphate ore" to the upstream conduction of the industry chain.

Phosphate ore related targets are expected to benefit, such as Tianyuan shares, Silte, etc

Three, glass

Glass futures breakthrough 3000 mark, another record high, the second half of the glass is the traditional peak season, the price is expected to continue to strengthen.

In terms of production capacity, the industry capacity is rigid, with little room for adjustment and high exit cost. It takes 8-10 years to put into production until the end. From this year 21 to the first half of next year, capacity replacement policy wants to increase the possibility of capacity is 0, in the context of carbon neutrality, glass industry capacity will maintain relatively stable.

From the point of view of industry concentration, the industry concentration is low, CR10 50-55%, the 14th Five-year plan industry concentration is more than 75%.

In terms of inventories, float glass inventories in 13 major provinces fell 3 percent month-on-month to 20 million weight cases last week, reversing a trend of six consecutive weeks of inventory increases since late May.

This is the inventory situation under the current off-season background. From the current industry situation, in the second half of the year, glass supply and demand is tight, and related targets are expected to benefit, such as Qibin Group, South GLASS A, Luoyang Glass, Yamadun, Follett, etc

Fourth, review

1. Glodon

The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 230-300 million yuan, up 76.89%-130.72% compared with the same period last year. The company's performance exceeded expectations.

The company's revenue has maintained rapid growth, the cloud transformation of digital cost business has been fully covered, and the revenue of both new and old regions has achieved growth. The transformation area of the company's digital cost covers the middle and late period. The profit fluctuation brought by the transformation has passed, and the apparent profit gradually recovers.

The cloud transformation of the company's digital cost business is progressing smoothly, and the ARPU value of users is further improved through value-added services. Digital construction business is expected to return to the fast growth channel after early adjustment and accumulation. Digital design layout has a long-term growth curve, and the overall growth direction is clear, the growth path is relatively certain, and the sustainable growth can be expected.

2. Sino-fujian Energy

In the next five years, the scale of offshore wind power is expected to increase by 8.3 times.

The company focuses on wind power/photovoltaic/biomass and other new energy power generation business, and its controlling shareholder is fujian Investment Group, which is state-owned. By the end of 2020, 114,000 kW of offshore wind power is under construction. The investment group has 312,000 kw of offshore wind power under construction / 500,000 kW, and 1.2 million kW of pumping and storage power station under construction.

Fujian province has excellent wind resources, and the company's sea breeze project is rich in resource reserves, and has the full support of Fujian Investment Group. It is expected that the installed sea breeze capacity of the company is expected to achieve a leap-forward growth during the "14th Five-year Plan", and it is estimated that the sea breeze scale of the company is expected to reach 1,508,000 kW before 2025. It is 8.3 times of the sea breeze transport scale and 1.8 times of the total installed capacity at the end of 2020.

3, chuanyangtse storage was blocked comments

With the support of domestic equipment, the progress to the United States has been at 55/28nm, which means that except hefei Changxin (19/17nm) + SMIC South (14/10/7nm) is the advanced process, the other 95% of domestic fabs will not be affected, because almost all other fabs are at 55/90/130nm process. Yangtze Storage at (45-28nm) if the ban intensifies, it will greatly stimulate domestic equipment demand and r&d progress.

Five, the stocks

1. Boe

It is estimated that the half-year net profit of 2021 will be 12.50 billion yuan to 12.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1,001%-1018%. In the first half of the year, the mature production line of the company maintained full production and full sales, and the market share of LCD mainstream applications continued to maintain a leading position

2. Jiangte Motor

The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the half year of 2021 is expected to be 175 million yuan to 185 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6214.73% to 6575.57%. The external environment of lithium carbonate business continues to improve, the downstream demand increases, and its sales price increases significantly compared with last year

3. ST Huayu

Net profit is expected to reach 66.8 million yuan to 72 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 203.91 percent to 227.57 percent year-on-year

4. Guoxuan High-tech

The company and The Volkswagen Group signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Battery Strategic Partnership, aiming to work together to build a fully clean energy ecosystem for the production of power battery cells and modules.

The parties intend to cooperate in the development of a ternary standard cell for production in Salzgit, Germany, and further explore the cooperation in the development of a lithium iron phosphate cell (" Lithium iron phosphate first generation standard cell "). The two sides will build zero-carbon plants in Europe and will jointly develop other potential production sites in Europe.The two sides will cooperate in the infrastructure construction of new energy vehicles, cascade utilization and battery recycling, and research and development of advanced technologies such as JTM, CTP and CTC.

5. Lone Star Chemical

It is expected that the net profit of the half-year return to mother in 2021 will be 100-130 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3700.98%-4841.27%.

6. Kimpo Titanium Industry

Revised results forecast, is expected to profit in the first half of 110 million yuan to 115 million yuan, year-on-year growth of 1380% to 1430%, previously estimated growth of 1105% to 1155%

New Fengming

Net profit is expected to reach 1.3 billion yuan to 1.35 billion yuan in the first half, up 549 percent to 574 percent year on year

8. Mount Everest in Tibet

It is expected to achieve net profit of 390 million yuan to 430 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 225.05%-258.39%

9. Electric connection technology

The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to reach 182.5 million to 192.5 million yuan in the half year of 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 113.52%-125.22%.

10. Baby Rabbits

It is expected to earn 290 million yuan to 330 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 577% to 671% year on year.