技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推動(dòng)平價(jià)，2021光伏裝機(jī)迎來高增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期。光伏行業(yè)鏈上下游持續(xù)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)外平價(jià)上網(wǎng)。十四五期間光伏裝機(jī)量有望年均新增70-90GW ，市場(chǎng)需求旺盛，迎來必然高增長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì)。

硅料價(jià)格先抑后揚(yáng)，一季度后供需偏緊，均價(jià)維持高位運(yùn)行 硅料擴(kuò)產(chǎn)周期較長(zhǎng)，容配比擴(kuò)大，硅料需求量增加。2021年一季度后硅料產(chǎn)能供需偏緊，全年均價(jià)有望維持在8.0-8.5萬元/噸。

硅片擴(kuò)產(chǎn)加劇競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，大尺寸單晶硅片持續(xù)滲透 硅片大幅擴(kuò)產(chǎn)，硅片競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇，2021年單晶硅片毛利率可能下滑至20-25%合理區(qū)間。大尺寸單晶硅片持續(xù)滲透，逐步在客戶端得到驗(yàn)證，2021年下半年將迎來放量增長(zhǎng)。

PERC效率提升至23.5%，TOPCon電池迎來量產(chǎn) 2021年電池片環(huán)節(jié)主流PERC技術(shù)效率將從23%提升至23.5%。HJT技術(shù)由于生產(chǎn)效率、供應(yīng)鏈配套、成本等原因暫時(shí)不具備競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。市場(chǎng)將迎來TOPCon電池的量產(chǎn)，尤其是TOPCon+將逐步替代現(xiàn)有PERC產(chǎn)能，大尺寸電池片將迎來盈利改善機(jī)會(huì)。

受益大功率組件的推廣，寬幅玻璃結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺 輔材方面，由于大尺寸大功率組件逐步推廣，寬幅玻璃將出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺。寬幅玻璃尺寸較大，老舊產(chǎn)線無法配套，新建產(chǎn)線周期長(zhǎng)，存在結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺機(jī)會(huì)。雙面雙玻的快速滲透將帶來POE材料需求的大幅增長(zhǎng)。

高端裝備迎來技術(shù)迭代，設(shè)備企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)高增長(zhǎng) 從硅料、硅片到電池片、組件，整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上下游積極擴(kuò)產(chǎn)。受益擴(kuò)產(chǎn)和收入確認(rèn)，2021年高端裝備企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)將持續(xù)高增長(zhǎng)。捷佳偉創(chuàng)、邁為股份、帝爾激光等企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)。

Technology innovation drives parity, 2021 photovoltaic installed capacity ushered in a period of high growth.Continued technological innovation in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain will promote affordable Internet access at home and abroad. During the 14th Five-Year period, the photovoltaic installation is expected to increase by 70-90GW annually, and the market demand is strong, ushers in the inevitable high growth opportunity.

After the first quarter, the supply and demand became tight. The average price remained high. The silicon material expansion period was longer, the capacity ratio was expanded, and the demand for silicon material increased. After the first quarter of 2021, the supply and demand of silicon material production capacity is tight, and the annual average price is expected to remain at 80,000-85,000 yuan/ton.

The expansion of silicon wafer production intensifies the competition. The continuous penetration of large-size monocrystal silicon wafer greatly increases the production, and the competition of silicon wafer intensifies. In 2021, the gross margin of monocrystal silicon wafer may decline to a reasonable range of 20-25%. Large-size monocrystalline silicon wafers continue to penetrate and are gradually verified on the client side. In the second half of 2021, massive growth will be ushered in.

PERC efficiency improved to 23.5%, Topcon battery ushered in mass production in 2021 battery link mainstream PERC technical efficiency will increase from 23% to 23.5%. HJT technology temporarily does not have competitive advantages due to production efficiency, supply chain matching, cost and other reasons.The market will usher in the mass production of TOPCON batteries, especially TOPCON + will gradually replace the existing PERC capacity, large size batteries will usher in profit improvement opportunities.

Benefiting from the promotion of high-power components, wide-width glass structural shortage of auxiliary materials, due to the gradual promotion of large-size high-power components, wide-width glass will be in structural shortage. Wide glass size is large, the old production line can not be matched, the new production line cycle is long, there are structural shortage opportunities.The rapid penetration of double-sided and double-glass materials will lead to a significant increase in the demand for POE materials.

High-end equipment ushered in technological iteration, and equipment enterprises saw a high growth in performance. From silicon materials, silicon wafers to battery wafers and components, the upstream and downstream of the entire industrial chain actively expanded production. Benefit from expansion of production and revenue recognition, the performance of high-end equipment enterprises will continue to grow at a high rate in 2021.Jiejia Wei Chuang, Maiwei shares, Dier laser and other enterprises continued to grow rapidly.