2020年以來(lái)，全球新能源革命都開(kāi)始了加速推進(jìn)。2021年兩會(huì)，“碳中和”和“碳達(dá)峰”更是首次被寫(xiě)進(jìn)政府工作報(bào)告，成為我國(guó)2060年前必將實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)。在此背景下，推動(dòng)以光伏和氫能為代表的清潔能源體系的搭建和發(fā)展成為了關(guān)鍵。目前，我國(guó)在風(fēng)電、光伏發(fā)電等方面已經(jīng)形成了完整的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，技術(shù)水平和制造規(guī)模屬都處于世界前列。而近日，光伏龍頭隆基股份宣布正式入局氫能，也讓氫能整個(gè)板塊成為焦點(diǎn)，相關(guān)概念股個(gè)股輪掀漲停潮，氫能源這個(gè)萬(wàn)億級(jí)市場(chǎng)動(dòng)能也被再次釋放，氫能源的機(jī)會(huì)來(lái)了？
01光伏龍頭為何入局氫能市場(chǎng)？
        前兩天，隆基股份通過(guò)全資子公司與一家私募合資成立了西安隆基氫能科技有限公司，而這家公司由隆基創(chuàng)始人親自擔(dān)任董事長(zhǎng)，注冊(cè)資本3個(gè)億，決心非小，也標(biāo)志著隆基股份正式加入光伏制氫這個(gè)戰(zhàn)局。
近兩個(gè)月以來(lái)，氫能源板塊的走勢(shì)一改此前低迷走勢(shì)持續(xù)走強(qiáng)，2月9日至今，同花順氫能源指數(shù)已超20%。而此消息一出，更是直接讓行業(yè)迎來(lái)了一個(gè)小高潮。昨天，氫能概念股集體爆發(fā)，行業(yè)指數(shù)漲幅達(dá)5.23%，十多只概念股漲幅超過(guò)10%。今天，氫能板塊也是漲勢(shì)不減，板塊漲幅達(dá)1.43%，雪人股份、天沃科技、寶光股份等多支股票繼續(xù)漲停，六十余只相關(guān)概念股都在跟漲。
       近年來(lái)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭愈發(fā)迅猛，2020年更是我國(guó)光伏的爆發(fā)之年，新增裝機(jī)規(guī)模同比增長(zhǎng)達(dá)60%。而隆基股份作為市值超3400億的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)龍頭，去年以來(lái)也是資本市場(chǎng)的明星公司，2020年公司股價(jià)漲幅超270%，預(yù)計(jì)全年凈利增長(zhǎng)超60%，是當(dāng)前已公布光伏企業(yè)中業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)最好的公司。
除隆基股份外，陽(yáng)光電源、寶豐能源等多家公司都在積極布局綠氫產(chǎn)業(yè)。陽(yáng)光電源作為另一個(gè)光伏巨頭，目前已經(jīng)成立了專(zhuān)門(mén)的氫能事業(yè)    部。與中國(guó)科學(xué)院大連化學(xué)物理研究所，以大功率PEM電解制氫裝備的研究開(kāi)發(fā)為核心，同時(shí)在先進(jìn)PEM電解制氫技術(shù)、可再生能源與電解制氫融合、制氫系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化等方面展開(kāi)合作，目前其已簽訂了光伏制氫示范項(xiàng)目。
兩大巨頭的接連布局，影響和帶動(dòng)了整個(gè)行業(yè)的發(fā)展方向。這不僅是公司層面的戰(zhàn)略，更標(biāo)志著光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)也進(jìn)入了以光伏制氫為代表的新一輪戰(zhàn)局。而這個(gè)發(fā)展思路也為我國(guó)能源安全和能源戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整提供了新的方向。
光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)是潮汐特性最明顯的可再生能源之一，而儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)對(duì)于超大規(guī)模光伏發(fā)電場(chǎng)不可或缺。光伏制氫可加快推動(dòng)氫儲(chǔ)能項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展，進(jìn)而推動(dòng)儲(chǔ)能項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展。反過(guò)來(lái)，儲(chǔ)能技術(shù)也有利于推動(dòng)超大規(guī)模光伏場(chǎng)的建設(shè)。
此外，在技術(shù)層面，利用電解水制氫可有效化解風(fēng)力發(fā)電、光伏發(fā)電等新能源發(fā)電亟待解決的消納問(wèn)題，也就是說(shuō)，通過(guò)“可再生能源發(fā)電-制氫-氫燃料電池發(fā)電”的路徑可以形成完整的儲(chǔ)能解決方案。因此，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)和氫能源的關(guān)系可以說(shuō)是相互促進(jìn)，共同發(fā)展。氫能源按生產(chǎn)來(lái)源劃分，可以分為“灰氫”、“藍(lán)氫”和“綠氫”三類(lèi)。
      目前，我國(guó)氫氣主要來(lái)自從天然氣或煤炭的灰氫。隨著光伏和風(fēng)電發(fā)電成本不斷下降，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了例如華能突泉縣 50 萬(wàn)千瓦風(fēng)電制氫儲(chǔ)能一體化項(xiàng)目。未來(lái)氫能源如果與大規(guī)模光伏發(fā)電或風(fēng)力發(fā)電配套，那么能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)完整綠色能源閉環(huán)的電解水制綠氫或?qū)⒊蔀橹髁靼l(fā)展趨勢(shì)。隆基股份的總裁之前提到，隆基早在2018年就開(kāi)始關(guān)注和布局可再生能源電解制氫，近三年來(lái)都在持續(xù)研究，在電解制氫裝備、光伏制氫等領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)形成了技術(shù)積累?？梢?jiàn)，本次入局光伏制氫也不是突然決定，而是蓄謀已久。在碳中和的趨勢(shì)下，可再生能源電解制氫有望成為最主要的制氫方式，因此市場(chǎng)需求和發(fā)展空間也進(jìn)一步打開(kāi)。
02

勢(shì)在必行的清潔能源革命當(dāng)前，全球?qū)τ谥С謿淠馨l(fā)展都極為重視，它的身影也頻頻在各國(guó)戰(zhàn)略中出現(xiàn)。在歐洲綠色新政中，歐盟提出6大綠色行動(dòng)計(jì)劃，其中在交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)零排放計(jì)劃中提到在航空、航運(yùn)和重型公路運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域，大力推廣氫氣等可持續(xù)替代燃料；英國(guó)在其《綠色工業(yè)變革十個(gè)計(jì)劃點(diǎn)》中也提到，十年目標(biāo)是到 2030 年實(shí)現(xiàn) 5GW 的低碳?xì)渖a(chǎn)能力，并將為之提供 2.4億英鎊的凈零氫基金。國(guó)內(nèi)更是進(jìn)展的如火如荼，各地氫能源發(fā)展計(jì)劃都在相繼落地。例如嘉興市規(guī)劃中提到，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年，氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)年產(chǎn)值突破400億元，建成加氫站30座，示范應(yīng)用氫車(chē)2500輛，年產(chǎn)氫氣25萬(wàn)噸，其中高純氫及燃料電池用氫達(dá)到10萬(wàn)噸以上；常熟市提出，預(yù)測(cè)到2025 年，氫燃料電池汽車(chē)保有量約1400輛，規(guī)劃建設(shè)商用加氫站4座等。

從氫產(chǎn)量來(lái)看，當(dāng)前我國(guó)也已成為世界第一大制氫大國(guó)。消費(fèi)端上，氫能消費(fèi)場(chǎng)景更是極為廣泛。以金屬冶煉行業(yè)為例，“碳中和”目標(biāo)下，相較于傳統(tǒng)的高爐冶煉產(chǎn)生大量的二氧化碳?xì)怏w排放，氫能煉鋼利用氫氣替代一氧化碳做還原劑，其還原產(chǎn)物為水，極大減少了傳統(tǒng)鋼鐵冶煉中產(chǎn)生的碳排放。

因此不只是光伏制氫，氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)在各領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用都將在“碳中和”和“碳達(dá)峰”的全球戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展下，成為下一個(gè)黃金賽道。

據(jù)測(cè)算，到2050年，全球氫需求將達(dá)到6億噸/年-8億噸/年的規(guī)模，按照該預(yù)期，未來(lái)30年，全球年均新增的制氫規(guī)模約為2500萬(wàn)噸，帶來(lái)新增光伏裝機(jī)年均900GW左右，從而就形成了傳說(shuō)中的萬(wàn)億級(jí)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模。

同時(shí)，近幾年，氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)的投資規(guī)模在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，疫情也并未對(duì)此積極局面產(chǎn)生影響。根據(jù)公開(kāi)信息初步統(tǒng)計(jì)，2019年氫燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)投資及規(guī)劃資金1805億元。盡管受到疫情影響，2020年氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)整體發(fā)展速度有所放緩，但在投資方面，投資金額 1600 億元，僅有11%左右的降幅，顯示了市場(chǎng)對(duì)于氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)依舊充滿(mǎn)信心。
當(dāng)前，萬(wàn)億級(jí)規(guī)模的藍(lán)海市場(chǎng)已然打開(kāi)，氫能相關(guān)概念板塊的投資價(jià)值也開(kāi)始顯現(xiàn)。隨著后續(xù)頂層設(shè)計(jì)的出臺(tái)，以及各地產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃的陸續(xù)落地，未來(lái)10年我國(guó)的氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈肉眼可見(jiàn)的將迎來(lái)快速發(fā)展。
03

      最好的布局方向在哪？要分析氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的投資價(jià)值，首先來(lái)看一下氫能源的整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。氫能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈當(dāng)前主要分為上、中、下游。上游產(chǎn)業(yè)按照生產(chǎn)來(lái)源劃分即上文提到的“灰氫”、“藍(lán)氫”和“綠氫”三類(lèi)制氫品類(lèi)。從三大工業(yè)氣體巨頭依托空分技術(shù)儲(chǔ)備及資源調(diào)配能力在氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的全方位布局的能力向國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展推導(dǎo)，國(guó)內(nèi)具有氫的制備和純化技術(shù)儲(chǔ)備的本土空分設(shè)備及工業(yè)氣體公司，未來(lái)都有極大可能迅速成長(zhǎng)壯大。此外，一些傳統(tǒng)的能源企業(yè)巨頭，也已陸續(xù)進(jìn)軍氫能源。其中，七大央企已經(jīng)入局，國(guó)家能源集團(tuán)發(fā)起設(shè)立百億國(guó)能新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金，中石化和新能源企業(yè)合作，探討氫能項(xiàng)目落地。國(guó)家電投成立全資氫能子公司，東方電氣、華能集團(tuán)、中國(guó)能建、中海油也各自布局。中游為儲(chǔ)能方式，氫氣的儲(chǔ)存主要有氣態(tài)儲(chǔ)氫、液態(tài)儲(chǔ)氫和固體儲(chǔ)氫三種方式，其中高壓氣態(tài)儲(chǔ)氫已得到廣泛應(yīng)用，國(guó)內(nèi)主要廠商包括深冷股份、富瑞特裝、京城股份等。
而下游則為應(yīng)用場(chǎng)景，當(dāng)前氫燃料電池汽車(chē)是氫能高效利用的最有效途徑。根據(jù)國(guó)際氫能委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，到2050年，氫能將承擔(dān)全球 18%的能   源終端需求，創(chuàng)造超過(guò) 2.5 萬(wàn)億美元的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值，其中燃料電池汽車(chē)將占據(jù)全球車(chē)輛的 20%-25%，那時(shí)將成為與汽油、柴油并列的終端能源體系消費(fèi)主體。

因此在氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈端，當(dāng)前投資可聚焦兩類(lèi)主要企業(yè)，一種是具備規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)和資源優(yōu)勢(shì)，全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈布局的企業(yè)；而另一種則是掌握核心環(huán)節(jié)技術(shù)，有望推動(dòng)燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈國(guó)產(chǎn)化進(jìn)程的企業(yè)。比如億華通、騰龍股份、大洋電機(jī)、美錦能源、雄韜股份、厚普股份等，都是可以重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的標(biāo)的?？傊?，氫能源板塊行情已經(jīng)再次啟動(dòng)，氫能作為應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化、建設(shè)脫碳社會(huì)的重要能源，無(wú)論是政策上的支持還是產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)的發(fā)展方向都是確認(rèn)無(wú)疑的。而，在這一波行情中，有戰(zhàn)略布局多年實(shí)際做業(yè)務(wù)的，也有短線概念炒作謀求利益的，可謂魚(yú)龍混雜、泥沙俱下。因此投資的時(shí)候不僅要選對(duì)行業(yè)，更要選對(duì)公司，只有具有長(zhǎng)期投資的潛力股，才值得下注。

Since 2020, the global new energy revolution has accelerated.In 2021, the two sessions, "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peak" have been written into the government work report for the first time, as China will achieve the goal before 2060.In this context, it is crucial to promote the construction and development of clean energy systems represented by photovoltaic and hydrogen energy.At present, China has formed a complete industrial chain in wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and its technology level and manufacturing scale are at the forefront of the world. Recently, the photovoltaic leading Longji shares announced the official entry into the Bureau of Hydrogen Energy, also let the whole plate become the focus of hydrogen, related concept stocks stocks round lift the tide, hydrogen energy this trillion level market kinetic energy has been released again, the opportunity to hydrogen energy?

Why did the photovoltaic taps enter the local hydrogen energy market?

Two days ago, Longji shares through a wholly-owned subsidiary and a private equity joint venture established Xi 'an Longji Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd., and the company by the founder of Longji personally served as the chairman, registered capital of 300 million, determination is not small, also marks the Longji shares officially joined the photovoltaic hydrogen production of the war.

In the past two months, the trend of hydrogen energy plate changed the previous depressed trend continued to strengthen, since February 9, the flush hydrogen energy index has exceeded 20%. And this news, but also directly let the industry ushered in a small climax.Yesterday, the collective outbreak of hydrogen energy concept stocks, the industry index rose 5.23%, more than a dozen concept stocks rose more than 10%. Today, the hydrogen sector is rising unabated, up 1.43%, Yeti shares, Tianwo Technology, Baoguang shares and other stocks continue to rise by the daily limit, more than 60 related concept stocks are rising.

In recent years, the development momentum of the photovoltaic industry is increasingly rapid, and 2020 is the year of the outbreak of China's photovoltaic industry, with a year-on-year growth of 60% in the new installed capacity. Longji shares, as the market capitalization of more than 340 billion photovoltaic industry leader, is also a star company in the capital market since last year, in 2020, the company's stock price has increased by more than 270%, the annual net profit is expected to increase by more than 60%, is currently announced the best performance of photovoltaic companies.

In addition to Longji shares, Sunshine Power, Baofeng Energy and other companies are actively layout the green hydrogen industry.Sunlight Power, as another photovoltaic giant, has set up a dedicated hydrogen business division.Focusing on the research and development of high-power PEM electrolytic hydrogen production equipment, the company has also cooperated with Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences in advanced PEM electrolytic hydrogen production technology, the fusion of renewable energy and electrolytic hydrogen production, and the optimization of hydrogen production system. At present, the company has signed a photovoltaic hydrogen production demonstration project.

The successive layout of the two giants has influenced and driven the development direction of the whole industry.This is not only a strategy at the company level, but also a symbol that the photovoltaic industry has entered a new round of battle represented by photovoltaic hydrogen production. And this development idea also provides a new direction for China's energy security and energy strategy adjustment.

The photovoltaic industry is one of the renewable energy sources with the most obvious tidal characteristics, and the energy storage system is indispensable for the very large scale photovoltaic power plants. Photovoltaic hydrogen production can accelerate the development of hydrogen energy storage projects, and then promote the development of energy storage projects.In turn, energy storage technology is also conducive to promoting the construction of ultra-large scale photovoltaic fields.

In addition, at the technical level, hydrogen production by electrolysis of water can effectively solve the urgent consumption problems of wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation and other new energy power generation, that is to say, a complete energy storage solution can be formed through the path of "renewable energy generation - hydrogen production - hydrogen fuel cell power generation". Therefore, the relationship between the photovoltaic industry and hydrogen energy can be said to promote each other and develop together.Hydrogen energy can be divided into "gray hydrogen", "blue hydrogen" and "green hydrogen" according to its production sources.

At present, hydrogen in China mainly comes from ash hydrogen from natural gas or coal.As the cost of photovoltaic and wind power generation continues to decline, there have been projects such as the integrated hydrogen production and energy storage project of Huaneng Tuquan County with a wind power of 500,000 kW. In the future, if hydrogen energy is combined with large-scale photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation, electrolysis of water to produce green hydrogen, which can realize complete green energy closed-loop, may become the mainstream development trend.The president of Longi shares previously mentioned that Longi began to pay attention to and layout of renewable energy electrolytic hydrogen production as early as 2018. In the past three years, it has been continuing research, and has formed technical accumulation in the fields of electrolytic hydrogen production equipment and photovoltaic hydrogen production. Visible, this entry into the Bureau of photovoltaic hydrogen production is not a sudden decision, but a long time of planning.In the trend of carbon neutrality, renewable energy electrolytic hydrogen production is expected to become the most important way of hydrogen production, so the market demand and development space is further opened.

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The Clean Energy Revolution is Imperative At present, the world attaches great importance to supporting the development of hydrogen energy, and it frequently appears in national strategies. In the European Green New Deal, the EU put forward six green action plans. In the zero-emission plan for the transportation industry, it mentioned the promotion of hydrogen and other sustainable alternative fuels in the aviation, shipping and heavy road transportation sectors.The UK also mentioned in its Ten Plan Points for Green Industrial Change that the 10-year goal is to achieve 5GW of low carbon and hydrogen production capacity by 2030, and will provide 240 million pounds of net zero hydrogen fund for it. Domestic progress is in full swing, all over the hydrogen energy development plans have been landing.For example, according to the plan of Jiaxing City, it is expected that by 2025, the annual output value of hydrogen energy industry will exceed 40 billion yuan, 30 hydrogen refueling stations will be built, 2500 hydrogen vehicles will be demonstrated and applied, and the annual output of hydrogen will reach 250,000 tons, among which the high purity hydrogen and fuel cell hydrogen will reach more than 100,000 tons. Changshu proposed that by 2025, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be about 1,400, and 4 commercial hydrogen refueling stations will be planned and constructed.

From the point of hydrogen production, China has become the world's largest hydrogen production country.On the consumption side, hydrogen energy consumption scenario is extremely extensive. Taking the metal smelting industry as an example, under the goal of "carbon neutral", compared with the traditional blast furnace smelting to produce a large amount of carbon dioxide gas emissions, hydrogen steelmaking uses hydrogen instead of carbon monoxide as the reducing agent, and its reduction product is water, which greatly reduces the carbon emissions generated in the traditional steel smelting.

Therefore, not only photovoltaic hydrogen production, but also the application of hydrogen energy industry in all fields will become the next golden track under the global strategy of "carbon neutral" and "carbon peak".

It is estimated that by 2050, the global hydrogen demand will reach 600 million tons/year to 800 million tons/year. According to this expectation, in the next 30 years, the global annual increase in hydrogen production will be about 25 million tons, bringing about 900GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity annually, thus forming the fabled trillion-level market size.

At the same time, in recent years, the scale of investment in the hydrogen energy industry has continued to grow, and the epidemic has not affected this positive situation. According to the preliminary statistics of public information, the hydrogen fuel cell industry in 2019 related investment and planning funds of 180.5 billion yuan. Although affected by the epidemic, the overall development speed of hydrogen energy industry will slow down in 2020, the investment amount of 160 billion yuan, only about 11% of the decline, indicating that the market is still full of confidence in the hydrogen energy industry.

At present, the trillion-scale blue ocean market has been opened, and the investment value of hydrogen energy related concept plate has also begun to appear. With the introduction of subsequent top-level design and the implementation of industrial plans in various places, China's hydrogen energy industry chain will see rapid development in the next 10 years.

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What's the best layout direction?To analyze the investment value of hydrogen energy industry chain, first look at the whole industry chain of hydrogen energy. At present, the hydrogen energy industry chain is mainly divided into upper, middle and downstream.The upstream industry is divided into three categories of hydrogen production according to production sources, namely "grey hydrogen", "blue hydrogen" and "green hydrogen" mentioned above. It can be inferred from the development of domestic industry of the three major industrial gas giants relying on the ability of air separation technology reserve and resource allocation in an all-around layout in the hydrogen energy industry chain that the domestic domestic air separation equipment and industrial gas companies with hydrogen preparation and purification technology reserve are highly likely to grow rapidly in the future.In addition, some traditional energy giants have also been moving into hydrogen energy. Among them, seven central enterprises have entered the bureau, the State Energy Group initiated the establishment of a new energy industry investment fund of ten billion yuan, Sinopec cooperated with new energy enterprises, and discussed the implementation of hydrogen energy projects.State Power Investment Corporation set up a wholly-owned hydrogen energy subsidiary, and Dongfang Electric, Huaneng Group, China National Energy Construction Corporation and CNOOC also set up their own subsidiaries. The middle stream is the energy storage method, and hydrogen storage mainly includes gaseous hydrogen storage, liquid hydrogen storage and solid hydrogen storage. Among them, high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage has been widely used, and the main domestic manufacturers include cryogenic stock, Furite equipment, Beijing stock and so on.

The downstream is the application scenario. Currently, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are the most effective way to efficiently utilize hydrogen energy. According to the International Hydrogen Council, hydrogen energy will assume 18% of the global terminal energy demand by 2050, creating a market value of more than 2.5 trillion US dollars, among which fuel cell vehicles will account for 20%-25% of the global vehicles, and will become the main consumer of terminal energy system along with gasoline and diesel at that time.

Therefore, at the end of the hydrogen energy industry chain, the current investment can focus on two main types of enterprises. One is the enterprises with scale advantages and resource advantages and the whole industry chain layout; The other is the enterprises that master the core technologies and are expected to promote the localization of the fuel cell industry chain.For example, Yihuatong, Tenglong shares, ocean electric machinery, Meijin energy, Xiongtao shares, Houpu shares, etc., are all targets that can be focused on. In short, the hydrogen energy market has started again, hydrogen energy as an important energy to deal with climate change and build a decarbonized society, both policy support and the development direction of industrial technology are confirmed.And, in this wave of market, strategic layout for many years actually do business, there are also short-term concept speculation seeking interests, it may be said that fish and dragon mixed, the sand. Therefore, it is important to not only choose the right industry, but also the right company when investing. Only the stocks with long-term investment potential are worth betting on.