基本情況：

? 組件出貨量20G，成為全行業(yè)第一，今年組件有望繼續(xù)維持市場第一。

? 硅片：隆基股份抓住了市場需求切換的機(jī)遇，去年一季度硅片毛利率40%，全年平均在30-35%。

行業(yè)展望

? 行業(yè)去年是分水嶺，今年進(jìn)入大發(fā)展階段的過渡期。過去光伏行業(yè)高度依賴補(bǔ)貼，今年開始國內(nèi)進(jìn)入平價(jià)階段，海外在加速去補(bǔ)貼。

? 光伏在十四五期間擺脫補(bǔ)貼的同時(shí)解決銷納問題，儲(chǔ)能配套要跟上。十四五對全球來說都是過度期，隨著光伏+儲(chǔ)能經(jīng)濟(jì)型提升，疊加銷納問題改善，需求應(yīng)該有大發(fā)展。

? 今年同比增長有30%，去年有部分需求順延到今年。一季度市場淡季不淡，春節(jié)前項(xiàng)目有搶裝（因?yàn)閾?dān)心疫情影響節(jié)后裝機(jī)），行業(yè)內(nèi)備貨多，價(jià)格環(huán)比沒怎么下降。

? 全年需求節(jié)奏前低后高，國內(nèi)下半年要起來，二季度需求主要靠海外支持。

今年各業(yè)務(wù)板塊擴(kuò)產(chǎn)的情況？

? 今年年報(bào)會(huì)集中披露。目前看硅棒硅片在建曲靖1期10G，2期20G，1期主要是今年放量，到年中公司產(chǎn)能到100G，2期4季度可以釋放，總產(chǎn)能達(dá)到110G+

? 電池端：銀川3G，曲靖10，新公布的咸寧項(xiàng)目15G，后兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目從今年4Q開始，集中釋放看2022年。銀川3G今年可以完成。

? 組件兩個(gè)新項(xiàng)目達(dá)產(chǎn)后產(chǎn)能到50G，對應(yīng)明年電池片會(huì)有65G，因此組件后續(xù)還會(huì)擴(kuò)，目前還在和政府談，應(yīng)該在現(xiàn)有基地?cái)U(kuò)產(chǎn)。

電池?cái)U(kuò)產(chǎn)選擇什么路線？

? TOPCON和HIT都是根據(jù)N型硅片，公司層面現(xiàn)在沒有障礙，現(xiàn)有設(shè)備可以同時(shí)生產(chǎn)N和P，主要區(qū)別是摻雜物，切片環(huán)節(jié)沒有差異。

? 電池環(huán)節(jié)三個(gè)基地都是N型路線，今年3Q或者3Q公布路線，肯定是前沿技術(shù)的一種，在關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)形成了突破。PERC產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)到了效率極限，要對新電池路線布局。

? 公司布局多種電池路線，實(shí)驗(yàn)室儲(chǔ)備很多，三個(gè)基地可能是同一個(gè)技術(shù)路線，也可能是不同的。電池技術(shù)路線進(jìn)入到開放式階段，要看各企業(yè)是否能在技術(shù)上進(jìn)行突破，或者是融合。在目前情況下要看研發(fā)實(shí)力和設(shè)備。

供應(yīng)鏈的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

? 玻璃和硅料都是緊平衡的狀態(tài)。如果4Q需求集中爆發(fā)可能會(huì)帶來去年4Q類似的情況，給制造端帶來壓力。

? 玻璃2Q開始持續(xù)有產(chǎn)能投放。玻璃端隆基鎖了60%，今年組件競爭激烈，各家都會(huì)拿最有性價(jià)比的產(chǎn)品出來，包括雙面和大尺寸，去年隆基雙玻就有50%。

? 硅料產(chǎn)能建設(shè)期長。隆基鎖了硅料70-80%的需求，剩余的量有和小硅料廠在溝通，能夠保證供應(yīng)。新特，通威，大全，東方希望，OCI（馬來）都是供應(yīng)商，其中前四個(gè)都是比較大的量。

超白浮法玻璃可以替代多少背板玻璃？全年玻璃價(jià)格和硅料價(jià)格怎么看？

? 超白浮法玻璃在雙面組件里有20%的水平，用在背面，和光伏玻璃功率差0.3%，性價(jià)比非常好，現(xiàn)在是一個(gè)替代方案，后續(xù)光伏玻璃產(chǎn)能充裕的話還是會(huì)切換會(huì)光伏玻璃，不過浮法有13%的價(jià)差優(yōu)勢，是很好的替代品。

? 預(yù)估玻璃和硅料分別是30-40/  80-90，但是如果行業(yè)需求集中爆發(fā)會(huì)很容易突破這個(gè)價(jià)位。寬版玻璃價(jià)格可能維持高位。

大尺寸組件

? 大尺寸不存在技術(shù)壁壘，主要是不同企業(yè)的成本回報(bào)問題，很多線需要做改造，很多企業(yè)都做了資產(chǎn)減值損失。

? 尺寸上的變化要告一段落，下一步是對更深層次的技術(shù)變化的投資。尺寸的提升實(shí)在PERC出現(xiàn)瓶頸時(shí)的過度提升手段。

? 隆基的新產(chǎn)線都是182/210的產(chǎn)線。舊產(chǎn)線需要改造，但是只是熱場部件需要改。尺寸切換對隆基影響很小。組件主要是推182的。166短期不會(huì)很快退出。

顆粒硅

? 去年就在持續(xù)驗(yàn)證，現(xiàn)在看還有一些主要問題比如金屬雜質(zhì)高等，影響硅片品質(zhì)。顆粒料有的經(jīng)過脫氫處理后效果會(huì)好一些，可以做參雜，但是顆粒料不會(huì)超過今年總需求的4%。

? 現(xiàn)在顆粒料報(bào)價(jià)低15%，所以愿意去驗(yàn)證，但是用量太少，不好說是否在拉單晶這個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)能降本。如果顆粒料產(chǎn)品能成熟，生產(chǎn)成本能比塊狀料低30%。

? 連續(xù)投料“CCV ”技術(shù)公司研發(fā)成功了，但是還是傳統(tǒng)“RCC ”技術(shù)具備更好的性價(jià)比?，F(xiàn)在還不好說是不是顆粒硅的連續(xù)投料能更省成本（提問人說能下降20%），顆粒硅產(chǎn)品還不成熟。

? 隆基采購設(shè)備是看未來而不是現(xiàn)在?？次磥砑夹g(shù)升級需求是否能夠滿足，所以公司設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)能的時(shí)候都預(yù)留了CCV的借口，所以顆粒料帶來的設(shè)備改造需求很有限。

未來三年全球光伏格局和成本下降趨勢

? 國內(nèi)十四五的定位是全面實(shí)現(xiàn)平價(jià)，從補(bǔ)貼期進(jìn)入平價(jià)，行業(yè)度電成本因?yàn)楦偁幍囊蛩囟^續(xù)快速下降。海外類似，行業(yè)快速發(fā)展。

? 中國提出碳中和目標(biāo)以后國有企業(yè)對光伏的相關(guān)投資展現(xiàn)了很大熱情，預(yù)計(jì)十四五很可能政治推動(dòng)下有超預(yù)期的需求。

? 歐洲也是進(jìn)入市場化階段，光伏市場需求在海外也會(huì)持續(xù)提升。中東也在大力布局光伏+儲(chǔ)能的布局。隨著光伏進(jìn)步度電成本會(huì)繼續(xù)下降。儲(chǔ)能在未來兩年也會(huì)有突破，光儲(chǔ)一體的經(jīng)濟(jì)性也能出來。不排除2023年光儲(chǔ)一體拉動(dòng)需求爆發(fā)。BIPV市場也有望高速增長。

? 2025年后隨著銷納問題和傳統(tǒng)能源存量問題解決，市場需求進(jìn)入快速發(fā)展，隨后會(huì)逐漸放緩。

? 成本端去年國內(nèi)度電成本下降了5%，今年還能下降5%。

硅片設(shè)備采購和友商有什么不同？能夠做設(shè)備定制化？

? 公司在單晶爐制造上自研主控系統(tǒng)，其他是供應(yīng)商根據(jù)要求定制的，降低了設(shè)備成本也保證了技術(shù)的領(lǐng)先性。

? 現(xiàn)在在嘗試把上游的模式復(fù)制到電池和組件環(huán)節(jié)，兩三年前就開始考慮這個(gè)方向。

? 電池和組件的差異化低，隆基希望能形成一些突破，在實(shí)驗(yàn)室都有做，要及時(shí)導(dǎo)入新產(chǎn)線。  已經(jīng)有突破。PERC產(chǎn)線里就有自主研發(fā)設(shè)備，比設(shè)備供應(yīng)商提供的效率要高很多。

Basic information:

? component shipments of 20 g, become the industry first, the components of this year is expected to continue to maintain the market first.

? silicon: longji shares seize the opportunity of the market demand to switch, silicon chip in the first quarter gross margin of 40% last year, the year in 30-35% on average.

Industry outlook

? industry last year was a watershed, this year in large development phase of transition.In the past, the photovoltaic industry was highly dependent on subsidies. This year, China began to enter the parity stage, while overseas subsidies are being accelerated.

? photovoltaic (pv) during the difference to get rid of subsidies XiaoNa problems at the same time, the storage to keep up.The 14th Five-Year Plan is a transitional period for the whole world. With the improvement of PV + energy storage economy and the improvement of superimposed consumption, demand should have a great development.

? year-on-year growth of 30% this year, last year moved to some demand this year.In the first quarter, the slack season was not weak. Before the Spring Festival, there was a rush to install the project (because of the fear that the epidemic would affect the post-festival installation). There were many stocks in the industry, and the price did not decline much compared with the previous quarter.

Low after high before the requirements of ? rhythm, will rise up to the second half of the domestic demand in the second quarter mainly rely on support of overseas.

This year each business plate expansion of the situation?

? annual report this year will focus on disclosure.At present, silicon rods and silicon wafers are under construction in Qujing Phase 1 of 10G and Phase 2 of 20G. Phase 1 is mainly to be released this year, and the company's production capacity will reach 100G by the middle of the year. Phase 2 can be released in the fourth quarter, with a total production capacity of 110G+

? battery terminal: yinchuan 3 g, qujing 10, 15 g, xianning project released new after two projects from the beginning of the year 4 q, concentrated release in 2022. Yinchuan 3G can be completed this year.

? components of two new projects after the capacity to 50 g, corresponding battery next year will have 65 g, so components will enlarge follow-up, and the government is still talk, should base on existing expansion.

What route should we choose for battery expansion?

? TOPCON and HIT are based on n-type silicon wafer, the corporate level there is no obstacle, existing equipment can produce N and P, at the same time the main difference is that the dopant, sliced link no difference.

? battery link three bases are N route, this year 3 q or released 3 q route, affirmation is a kind of cutting-edge technology, the key link to form the breakthrough. PERC capacity has reached the efficiency limit, to the layout of the new battery route.

? company a variety of cell line layout, laboratory reserves many, three base may be the same technical route, also may be different. Battery technology route into the open stage, to see whether the enterprise can make a breakthrough in technology, or is fusion.In the current situation, it depends on R&D strength and equipment.

Supply Chain Risks

? glass and silicon material is tight balance state.If 4Q demand erupts in a concentrated way, it may bring the situation similar to last year's 4Q, putting pressure on the manufacturing end.

2 q ? glass start to have capacity on continuously.Glass end long lock 60%, this year the component competition is fierce, each will take the most cost-effective products out, including double-sided and large size, last year long double glass had 50%.

? silicon material capacity construction period is long.Longji has secured 70-80% of the demand for silicon materials, and we are communicating with small silicon factories to ensure the supply of the remaining amount. Xinte, Tong Wei, Daquan, Dongfang Hope, OCI (Malaysia) are all suppliers, the first four of which are relatively large quantities.

Super white float glass can replace how much back glass?How does annual glass price and silicon material price look?

? ultra clear float glass has 20%, in double component used in the back, and photovoltaic power difference 0.3% glass, cost performance is very good, is now an alternative, subsequent photovoltaic abundant capacity will switch will photovoltaic glass, float 13% of the price advantage, however, is a good substitute.

? forecast glass and silicon material is 30-40/80-90 respectively, but if industry demand concentrated outbreak will be very easy to break through this price. Wide-plate glass prices are likely to remain high.

Large size assembly

? large size there is no technical barriers, mainly is the cost of different enterprises return problems, many line needs to be done to reform, many enterprises have made asset impairment losses.

? size change must come to an end, the next step is to investment in deeper technological change.The size of the promotion is PERC bottleneck when excessive promotion means.

? longji is 182/210 of the new production line to production line.The old production line needs to be modified, but only the thermal field parts need to be modified. Size switching has little effect on the clones.The components are mainly for pushing 182. It will not exit anytime soon.

Silicon particles

? continues to verify last year, now look at some major problems such as higher metal impurity, affect the quality of silicon wafers.Granular material some of the effect after dehydrogenation treatment will be a few better, can do mixed mixed, but granular material won't exceed the 4% of total demand this year.

? grain 15% lower now, so want to verify, but the amount is too little, can not say whether in crystal pulling this link authors.If the pellet product can mature, the production cost can be 30% lower than the block material.

? continuous feeding "CCV" technology company developed, but the traditional "RCC" technology has better cost performance.It is not yet clear whether the continuous feeding of granular silicon would be more cost-effective (the questioner said it could reduce costs by 20%), and granular silicon products are not yet ready.

? longji purchase equipment is the future rather than now.It depends on whether the future technology upgrading demand can be met, so the company reserved the excuse of CCV when designing the production capacity, so the equipment transformation demand brought by granule material is very limited.

Global PV pattern and cost decline trend in the next three years

? domestic difference positioning is the comprehensive implementation of parity, from subsidies to phase to parity, industry KWH cost continues to decline rapidly because of the competitive factors. Overseas similar, rapid development of the industry.

? state-owned enterprises after China carbon neutral target for pv related investment showed great enthusiasm, expected difference is likely to demand political driven by more than expected.

? Europe is also entered the stage of marketization, pv market demand abroad will continue to improve.The Middle East is also vigorously layout photovoltaic + energy storage layout. The cost per kilowatt hour will continue to fall as photovoltaic advances.Energy storage will also make a breakthrough in the next two years, and the economic efficiency of optical storage will also come out. Do not rule out 2023 light storage as a whole to drive the outbreak of demand.The BIPV market is also expected to grow rapidly.

? as XiaoNa after 2025 and traditional energy stock problems solved, the market demand into fast development, then gradually slow down.

? cost end domestic KWH cost decreased by 5% last year, this year could fall by 5%.

What is the difference between purchasing silicon wafer equipment and friendly business?Can do equipment customization?

? company master control system, the research on single crystal furnace manufacturing is other suppliers according to the requirements, reduce the equipment cost also ensures the leading technology.

? now trying to copy the pattern of upstream to the battery and component link, two or three years ago began to consider in this direction.

? batteries and components of low differentiation, longji hope to be able to form some breakthrough, has done in the laboratory, to import new production line in time. There has been a breakthrough.PERC production line has independent research and development equipment, than the equipment suppliers to provide much higher efficiency.