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東莞市星火太陽能科技股份有限公司

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隆基股份已豪擲400多億,鎖定至少200GW硅片用料
返回列表 來源: 工業(yè)能源圈 發(fā)布日期: 2021.04.09 瀏覽次數(shù):

        針對自身制造端環(huán)節(jié)的唯一“短板”,光伏龍頭隆基股份(601012.SH)正在通過綁定長單的方式加快補足。2月8日晚間,隆基股份公告稱,旗下九家子公司與 OCIM Sdn. Bhd.(下稱OCIM) 簽訂了三年期多晶硅料采購合同。根據(jù)協(xié)議,2021年3月至2024年2月期間,隆基股份方將向OCIM采購多晶硅料約7.77萬噸。如按照中國有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會硅業(yè)分會2月3日公布的單晶致密料成交均價9.25萬元/噸測算,預(yù)估本合同總金額約63.6億元。OCIM為韓國上市公司 OCI Company Ltd.的全資子公司,主營多晶硅生產(chǎn)與銷售業(yè)務(wù)。
       根據(jù)硅業(yè)分會統(tǒng)計,截至2020年底,全球硅料企業(yè)產(chǎn)能排名依次為保利協(xié)鑫(03800.HK)、通威股份(600438.SH)、特變電工(600089.SH)、新疆大全、東方希望、德國瓦克和OCIM。 隆基股份稱,上述合同通過鎖量不鎖價、按月議價、分批采購的長單方式。隆基股份稱,這有利于保障公司多晶硅原材料的長期穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)。深圳古瑞瓦特公司首席產(chǎn)品經(jīng)理劉繼茂對界面新聞指出,隆基股份從硅片、電池片到組件的的垂直一體化布局,給國內(nèi)的競爭對手形成很大的壓力。包括通威、協(xié)鑫在內(nèi)的國內(nèi)廠家,既是合作伙伴也是競爭對手。為了確保材料供應(yīng),硅料此次向韓國OCI采購。對此,隆基股份內(nèi)部人士對界面新聞表示,公司和OCI一直有合作,2018年的簽約到期了,這次是續(xù)簽。    經(jīng)界面新聞統(tǒng)計,截至目前,包括OCIM,隆基股份已與五家硅料商綁定。
       2020年8月,隆基股份與亞洲硅業(yè)約定,將于2020年9月1日-2025年8月31日向其采購12.48萬噸硅料,合同金額約94.98億元。9月,隆基股份宣布7.84億元參股通威股份通威股份旗下云南硅料公司,持有股權(quán)為49%。此外,雙方以每年10.18萬噸硅料為合作基礎(chǔ)目標,通威股份將優(yōu)先滿足2020-2021年隆基股份的硅料需求。12月,隆基股份與特變電工約定,將于2021年1月-2025年12月期間,向后者采購原生多晶硅料,合計不少于27萬噸,合同金額約192.35億元。
       2021年2月,隆基股份與保利協(xié)鑫約定,將于2021年3月-2023年12月期間向其采購不少于9.14萬噸的硅料,合同金額約73.28億元。 按此計算,隆基股份自去年8月以來,已明確與OCIM、特變電工、亞洲硅業(yè)、保利協(xié)鑫四家硅料商簽定56.39萬噸硅料,合同金額共約424.21億元。 硅料為光伏產(chǎn)品制造的基礎(chǔ)原材料,也是光伏企業(yè)進行垂直一體化擴產(chǎn)的必需品。2020年7月以來,由于新疆疫情、硅料生產(chǎn)事故及安全自查、四川洪水等多因素影響,硅料供應(yīng)緊缺,價格一度上漲至百元每公斤,較去年年初漲幅達34%,較5-6月的低谷上漲了66%。 2月3日,中國有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會硅業(yè)分會副秘書長馬海天預(yù)計,2021年硅料仍是光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中供應(yīng)最為緊張的環(huán)節(jié)之一。從供需角度分析,上半年總體供應(yīng)相對過剩;下半年供不應(yīng)求的狀況會越發(fā)明顯,價格或呈現(xiàn)加速上漲的態(tài)勢。 “從眾多長單簽訂情況看,表明多個頭部企業(yè)已經(jīng)在為新一年供應(yīng)鏈安全做準備。所以,大部分產(chǎn)量已被鎖定。”馬海天稱。
       界面新聞獲悉,目前1 GW硅片的用料量大致在2800-3000噸左右。按此推算,56.39萬噸的硅料約可以滿188 GW-201 GW的硅片生產(chǎn),是隆基股份當前硅片產(chǎn)能的約2.3倍。 考慮到硅片出貨量與尺寸、厚度、金剛線路徑等指標相關(guān),預(yù)計隆基股份已簽訂硅料相對應(yīng)的硅片出貨量應(yīng)遠高于此。 光伏制造端可大致分為硅料、硅片、電池片及組件四個制造環(huán)節(jié)。
       目前,隆基股份已在硅片、組件兩大環(huán)節(jié)登頂全球。截至2020年底,該公司硅片、電池、組件產(chǎn)能分別為85 GW、35 GW、40 GW。 硅料目前為隆基股份唯一沒有涉足的制造端環(huán)節(jié)。該公司擁有非常龐大的產(chǎn)能擴張目標,需要充足的原料供給。 隆基股份預(yù)計,到2021年中期,其硅片產(chǎn)能將達100 GW,2021年底將達110 GW。 一位業(yè)內(nèi)人士對界面新聞指出,隆基股份近年快速發(fā)展,也得益于他們堅定不移的“大客戶戰(zhàn)略”,同時保證了量的供應(yīng)和價格的優(yōu)勢。 “特別是前期玻璃緊張時,像隆基這種頭部企業(yè),比其他企業(yè)采購有接近10%的折價?!痹撊耸勘硎?。 去年三季度開始,受制于供應(yīng)緊缺,光伏玻璃開啟漲價潮,最高漲幅近100%。
       8日晚間,隆基股份還宣布,在此前與福萊特(601865.SH)原協(xié)議約定的2021年光伏玻璃年度采購數(shù)量9592萬平方米的基礎(chǔ)上,追加采購量2786萬平方米,并約定2022-2023年按照46 GW組件用量,向后者采購光伏玻璃。  截至目前,隆基股份已與南玻A(000012.SZ)、福萊特、亞瑪頓(002623.SZ)、彩虹新能源(00438.HK)簽訂采購長單。 2020年,隆基股份預(yù)計實現(xiàn)歸母凈利82億-86億元,同比增加55.3%-62.88%,再創(chuàng)歷史新高。2017-2019年,隆基股份歸母凈利分別實現(xiàn)35.6億元、25.6億元、52.8億元,已連續(xù)三年為A股最賺錢光伏企業(yè)。 2020年以來,隆基股份市值相繼突破2000億、3000億、4000億元關(guān)口,為最受資本青睞的光伏股之一,接連刷新全球光伏企業(yè)最高市值紀錄。

For their own manufacturing end link of the only "short board", the photovoltaic leading Longji shares (601012.SH) is bound by the way of long order to speed up the complement. On the evening of Feb. 8, Longi announced that nine of its subsidiaries have signed three-year polysilicon procurement contracts with OCIM Sdn. Bhd. (OCIM). Under the agreement, Longi will purchase approximately 77,700 tons of polysilicon material from OCIM between March 2021 and February 2024. According to the average transaction price of single crystal compact material announced by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Branch on February 3, it is estimated that the total amount of this contract is about 6.36 billion yuan. OCIM is a wholly owned subsidiary of South Korea's listed OCI Company Ltd., mainly engaged in the production and sales of polysilicon.

According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, by the end of 2020, the global silicon material enterprises' production capacity ranks GCL-Poly (03800.HK), Tongwei (600438.SH), TBIA (600088.SH), Xinjiang Daqo, Oriental Hope, Wakker and OCIM in order. Longji shares said that the above contract through the lock volume lock price, by monthly bargaining, batch procurement of long single way. Longji shares said, this is conducive to the protection of the company's long-term stable supply of polysilicon raw materials. Liu Jimao, chief product manager of Shenzhen Guiruiwatt, told Jiemian News that Longi's vertically integrated layout, from silicon wafers to batteries to components, puts a lot of pressure on its domestic competitors. Domestic manufacturers, including Tongwei and GCL, are both partners and competitors.In order to ensure material supply, the silicon material will be purchased from Korea OCI this time. In this regard, Longji insider told Jiemian News that the company and OCI have been cooperating, the 2018 contract expired, this time is a renewal. According to statistics of Jiemian news, so far, including OCIM, Longji shares have been bound with five silicon material companies.

In August 2020, Longji Co., Ltd. agreed with Asia Silicon Industry to purchase 124,800 tons of silicon materials from it from September 1, 2020 to August 31, 2025, with a contract amount of about RMB 9.498 billion. In September, Longji announced a stake of 784 million yuan in Tongwei's Yunnan Silicon Material Company, for a 49 percent stake. In addition, with the cooperation target of 101,800 tons of silicon material per year, Tongwei will give priority to meet Longji's silicon material demand in 2020-2021. In December, Longji Co., Ltd. agreed with TBIA to purchase raw polysilicon materials from the latter from January 2021 to December 2025, with a total amount of no less than 270,000 tons, and the contract amount is about 19.235 billion yuan.

In February 2021, Longi Co., Ltd. agreed with GCL-Poly to purchase no less than 91,400 tons of silicon materials from it from March 2021 to December 2023, with a contract amount of about 7.328 billion yuan. According to this calculation, since last August, Longji Co., Ltd. has signed 563,900 tons of silicon materials with four silicon material suppliers, OCIM, TBA, Asia Silicon Industry and GCL-Poly, with a total contract amount of about 42.421 billion yuan.Silicon material is the basic raw material for photovoltaic products manufacturing, and it is also necessary for photovoltaic enterprises to carry out vertical integration expansion. Since July 2020, due to the epidemic situation in Xinjiang, silicon material production accident and safety self-inspection, Sichuan flood and other factors, silicon material supply is in short supply, and the price of silicon material once rose to 100 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 34% compared with the beginning of last year, and 66% compared with the trough in May and June.On February 3, Ma Haitian, deputy secretary general of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Branch, predicted that silicon materials will remain one of the most tight supply links in the photovoltaic industry chain in 2021. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall supply of the first half of the relative surplus;In the second half of the year, the shortage of supply will become more obvious, and the price may accelerate the trend of rising. "The signing of the long order from the crowd shows that a number of leading enterprises have been preparing for the New Year of supply chain security. So most of the production has been locked in." "Ma said.

Interface news learned that at present, 1 GW silicon wafer material is roughly about 2800-3000 tons.Based on this calculation, 563,900 tons of silicon material can be about 188 GW-201 GW of wafer production, which is about 2.3 times of Longi's current wafer production capacity. Considering the silicon wafer shipment is related to the size, thickness, diamond line path and other indicators, it is expected that the silicon wafer shipment corresponding to the signed silicon material of Longji Stock should be much higher than this.The photovoltaic manufacturing end can be roughly divided into four manufacturing links: silicon material, silicon wafer, battery wafer and module.

At present, Longji shares have been in the silicon wafer, components of the two major links to top the world.By the end of 2020, the company's wafer, battery and module capacity will be 85 GW, 35 GW and 40 GW, respectively. Silicone is currently the only manufacturing link that Longi shares have not been involved in. The company has a very large capacity expansion target and needs a sufficient supply of raw materials. Longi expects its wafer capacity to reach 100 GW by mid-2021 and 110 GW by the end of 2021. An industry insider pointed out to Jiemian News that the rapid development of Longji shares in recent years also benefited from their unswerving "big customer strategy", while ensuring the quantity of supply and price advantages. "Especially when the glass is tight in the early stage, the head enterprise like Longji has a discount of nearly 10% compared with other enterprises." The person said. Beginning in the third quarter of last year, subject to supply shortage, photovoltaic glass opened the price rise, the highest rise of nearly 100%.

On the evening of 8th, Longji also announced that it will purchase an additional amount of 27.86 million square meters of photovoltaic glass in 2021 on the basis of the 95.92 million square meters in the original agreement with Follett (60186.SH), and agreed to purchase photovoltaic glass from Follett in 2022-2023 in accordance with the amount of 46 GW modules. Up to now, Longji has signed A long purchase order with South Glass A(000012.SZ), Flette, Amadun (002623.SZ), Rainbow New Energy (00438.HK). In 2020, Longji Stock is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.2 billion to 8.6 billion yuan, an increase of 55.3%-62.88% over the same period last year, hitting a new record high. From 2017 to 2019, Longji's net profit to its parent reached 3.56 billion yuan, 2.56 billion yuan and 5.28 billion yuan respectively, and it has been the most profitable A-share photovoltaic enterprise for three consecutive years. Since 2020, the market value of Longji shares has exceeded 200 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan one after another, making it one of the most favored photovoltaic stocks by capital and breaking the record of the highest market value of photovoltaic enterprises in the world.




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