1. 未來十年，行業(yè)最大的變革機(jī)會？未來二十到三十年，光伏行業(yè)是快速增長的行業(yè)。光伏滿足新增電力需求，未來2050年預(yù)計(jì)全球一百萬億度電力的總需求，包括光伏制氫等solar for solar的應(yīng)用場景，總的用電需求中60%-70%由清潔能源提供。站在當(dāng)前時(shí)點(diǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)2025年全球光伏新增裝機(jī)300GW，2030年新增裝機(jī)1000GW。
2. 當(dāng)資金無限供給，光伏行業(yè)的發(fā)展會出現(xiàn)何種加速？目前造成光伏成本仍然較高的原因，包括非技術(shù)成本和資金成本等，例如地方政府的土地租金可能有2分-5分/度電。資金收益成本也是國內(nèi)的項(xiàng)目成本較高的原因。葡萄牙的光伏新增裝機(jī)幾乎沒有土地成本，資金成本極低，所以出現(xiàn)了1.3美分的電價(jià)水平。
3. 2021年光伏硅片、電池、組件的產(chǎn)能供給超過300GW，但是市場需求大概率在200GW以內(nèi)，行業(yè)短期的競爭格局如何？行業(yè)各環(huán)節(jié)產(chǎn)能釋放可能會受到硅料、玻璃供給的制約，減緩目前在建產(chǎn)能的建設(shè)進(jìn)度，所以目前來看的產(chǎn)能規(guī)?？赡懿灰欢〞?shí)際落地。
4. 公司對硅料庫存的處理和判斷？公司判斷一季度和二季度的硅料情況不會特別緊張，一二季度預(yù)計(jì)每個(gè)季度30GW多的需求，上半年合計(jì)不超過70GW。下游考慮到后面的需求可能比較旺盛，擔(dān)心上游硅料不足導(dǎo)致硅片環(huán)節(jié)緊缺，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的管道也在進(jìn)行加庫存，所以看到2021年一季度的硅片供需比以往年份更加緊張。
5. 光伏未來場景應(yīng)用設(shè)想？光伏未來的應(yīng)用場景較多，例如光伏屋頂：未來居民光伏屋頂?shù)男枨?、工商業(yè)屋頂?shù)腂IPV需求。中國的光伏屋頂需求和海外不同，海外屋頂大多有獨(dú)立產(chǎn)權(quán)，并且用戶的用電成本也較高，因此光伏項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)性已經(jīng)非常好。中國屋頂市場特點(diǎn)是有屋頂?shù)霓r(nóng)村用戶對應(yīng)的實(shí)際用電需求較小，而實(shí)際有比較高的用電需求用戶一般是沒有獨(dú)立產(chǎn)權(quán)的屋頂?shù)?，所以中國對屋頂?xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)性要求非常高。海外需求增長很快，但是公司最大的發(fā)展還是來自地面電站，屋頂市場的市占率提升沒有地面電站快，因?yàn)槲蓓斢脩魧ΜF(xiàn)有品牌或者先發(fā)優(yōu)勢的龍頭公司粘性較大。
6. 未來十年隆基的發(fā)展目標(biāo)和定位？公司認(rèn)為最核心的還是技術(shù)領(lǐng)先，保持量產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換效率或者發(fā)電的度電成本做到最低。產(chǎn)能方面，硅片是最核心的環(huán)節(jié)，市占率達(dá)到40-50%；組件環(huán)節(jié)市占率達(dá)到30%左右。若專業(yè)化公司在現(xiàn)有的條件下仍可以生存，公司會保持硅片的外銷比例，但如果下游專業(yè)化公司失去生存能力，公司會邁向更深度的一體化。技術(shù)的領(lǐng)先性方面，絕對領(lǐng)先的程度可能會有所收斂，但是相對領(lǐng)先的程度仍會保持。
7. 針對未來的技術(shù)變化，公司如何保持領(lǐng)先？1） 在技術(shù)研發(fā)和儲備，公司全行業(yè)投入最多，包括HJT等多種N型電池技術(shù)，公司目前的技術(shù)儲備可以隨時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)量產(chǎn)，但是目前考慮到新型電池技術(shù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)性，所以沒有大規(guī)模進(jìn)行量產(chǎn)。針對行業(yè)最前沿的技術(shù)，公司最低保持季度頻率跟蹤和推進(jìn)。
2） 顆粒硅方面。公司比較看好顆粒硅，目前顆粒硅的主要問題是粉塵含量高，碳含量高，容易斷晶，含氫導(dǎo)致容易漸硅，這些問題十分確定都可以解決，因?yàn)槭昵邦w粒硅是用在半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)上的，但是用在光伏領(lǐng)域的時(shí)候要求低成本解決這些問題。用量方面，顆粒硅可以用到80%左右都沒問題。公司近年來和協(xié)鑫等有持續(xù)推進(jìn)，只有含氫量這個(gè)問題目前還沒有完全解決。天宏硅業(yè)萬噸投資較高，協(xié)鑫表示7億元/萬噸的投資，公司對這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)目前還沒辦法確定。
3） N型硅料方面：國內(nèi)目前還沒有一家有合格的N型硅料產(chǎn)品提供的企業(yè)，N型硅料都在使用瓦克等進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品。
4） 電池方面：根據(jù)公司公告的電池投資額，市場可以對電池技術(shù)有個(gè)初步的判斷，但是目前公司還不能公布具體的技術(shù)路線。
8. 團(tuán)隊(duì)的人才培養(yǎng)和儲備是否支持公司的快速發(fā)展？
公司認(rèn)為未來發(fā)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要是兩個(gè)：1）超出認(rèn)知邊際的黑科技；2）企業(yè)的組織和管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。公司在早期創(chuàng)業(yè)時(shí)積累了一些核心人員，對于后面行業(yè)的持續(xù)創(chuàng)新，公司會針對性地提供一些平臺和機(jī)會，為目前的團(tuán)隊(duì)和人員提供創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)的機(jī)會，公司會給予資源上的大力支持。
9. 針對硅片行業(yè)的進(jìn)入者和行業(yè)格局的判斷？
公司在硅片尺寸方面研究地比較透徹，2021年Q2公司硅片產(chǎn)能100GW，其中95GW可以生產(chǎn)210大尺寸的產(chǎn)品，公司的產(chǎn)能甚至在改造后可以生產(chǎn)240尺寸的硅片。電池和組件方面，公司沒有生產(chǎn)182尺寸以上尺寸的產(chǎn)能預(yù)留，新購買的設(shè)備也沒有預(yù)留210尺寸產(chǎn)品的兼容性。
10. 美國和歐美等對新疆硅料的制裁對行業(yè)的影響？
美國、歐洲等地區(qū)即使跟進(jìn)這個(gè)限制政策，對總需求的影響也并不大。公司有專門的團(tuán)隊(duì)對海外貿(mào)易政策進(jìn)行研究，會對這個(gè)政策作出最好的處理。
11. 公司創(chuàng)始時(shí)的發(fā)展初心及現(xiàn)在的目標(biāo)是否發(fā)生變化？1） 從個(gè)人角度，1990年到2000年，主要是滿足家庭和個(gè)人經(jīng)濟(jì)需求，后面發(fā)展就是個(gè)人價(jià)值的實(shí)現(xiàn)。2009年公司實(shí)現(xiàn)千人規(guī)模的年會，開始意識到企業(yè)和個(gè)人的發(fā)展對員工的意義，就是為3萬多人創(chuàng)造了職業(yè)發(fā)展的平臺。到目前為止，從個(gè)人和家庭的角度，個(gè)人沒有減持公司股份的需求。2） 2006年開始對行業(yè)和公司的發(fā)展進(jìn)行深入的思考，光伏發(fā)展本質(zhì)就是發(fā)電成本的不斷降低，當(dāng)時(shí)就判斷是單晶的技術(shù)路線；2013-2014年，已經(jīng)意識到光伏會成為全球最便宜的能源，當(dāng)時(shí)思考的是光伏的在未來全球發(fā)展中應(yīng)該扮演的角色，以及如何處理它的不穩(wěn)定性等問題。2018年5月份，到劍橋去上課，在劍橋的課程有講到2050年的地球發(fā)展以及對地球未來的擔(dān)憂，公司那個(gè)時(shí)候就開始提出solar for solar理念，以實(shí)現(xiàn)對地球生態(tài)的修復(fù)。
3）總結(jié)企業(yè)未來發(fā)展的5個(gè)關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)：要有社會責(zé)任感和價(jià)值觀；順應(yīng)或者引領(lǐng)社會發(fā)展趨勢；一切以客戶為中心；保持對外學(xué)習(xí)開放的心態(tài)；有效的組織。
12. 電池技術(shù)的未來發(fā)展趨勢？單結(jié)硅電池的理論轉(zhuǎn)化效率是29%，不超過26%的量產(chǎn)效率技術(shù)路線在未來幾年基本都會實(shí)現(xiàn)，主要就是成本的要求。雙結(jié)電池理論達(dá)到41%的效率，量產(chǎn)效率是30%以上，上面一層目前來看是鈣鈦礦技術(shù)，下面是晶硅路線，其中鈣鈦礦層提供17-18%的效率貢獻(xiàn)，但是不穩(wěn)定，未來十年公司爭取在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)突破。
13. 未來光伏最大發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ念I(lǐng)域？1）公司正在研究和分析光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈未來的發(fā)展趨勢，通過產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上下游以及輔材等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域的分析，公司去發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能短缺的環(huán)節(jié)，在這些領(lǐng)域去進(jìn)行參股或者進(jìn)入這些領(lǐng)域。2）公司會結(jié)合在單晶硅片通過設(shè)備來建立的護(hù)城河的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，應(yīng)用到電池等其他環(huán)節(jié)，來保持自己的核心競爭力。

1. What is the biggest change opportunity in the industry in the next decade?In the next 20 to 30 years, the photovoltaic industry is a fast growing industry. Photovoltaic meets the new electricity demand. In the future 2050, it is estimated that the global total demand of 100 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, including photovoltaic hydrogen production and other solar for solar application scenarios, 60% to 70% of the total electricity demand will be provided by clean energy.Standing at the current point, it is expected that the new installed capacity of global PV will be 300GW in 2025 and 1000GW in 2030.

2. When the capital supply is unlimited, what kind of acceleration will the development of the photovoltaic industry appear?At present, the cost of photovoltaic is still high, including non-technical costs and capital costs, such as local government land rent may be 2-5 cents per kilowatt-hour. The cost of capital income is also the reason for the high cost of domestic projects.New PV installations in Portugal have almost no land costs and very low capital costs, so the 1.3-cent price level has emerged.

3. The capacity supply of photovoltaic silicon wafers, cells and modules will exceed 300GW in 2021, but the market demand is likely to be less than 200GW. What is the short-term competitive pattern of the industry? The release of production capacity in all sectors of the industry may be restricted by the supply of silicon materials and glass, which slows down the construction progress of the current production capacity under construction. Therefore, the current production capacity scale may not necessarily be actually realized.

4. How does the company deal with and judge the silicon stock?The company judges that the silicon material situation in the first quarter and the second quarter will not be particularly tight. The demand for the first quarter and the second quarter is estimated to be more than 30GW each quarter, and the total demand for the first half of the year will not exceed 70GW. Considering that the demand may be relatively strong in the future, the downstream is concerned about the shortage of wafer links caused by the lack of silicon materials in the upstream. Pipes in the industrial chain are also being stockpiling, so we see that the supply and demand of wafers in the first quarter of 2021 is more tight than in the previous years.

5. Future scenarios of photovoltaic applications?There are many application scenarios of photovoltaic in the future, such as photovoltaic roof: the demand of residential photovoltaic roof in the future, the BIPV demand of industrial and commercial roof. The demand for photovoltaic roofs in China is different from overseas, where most roofs have independent property rights and the cost of electricity for users is higher, so the economics of photovoltaic projects have been very good. The characteristics of China's roof market are that rural users with roofs have relatively small actual demand for electricity, while those with relatively high actual demand for electricity generally have roofs without independent property rights. Therefore, China has very high economic requirements for roof projects.Overseas demand is growing rapidly, but the biggest development of the company is from surface power stations. The market share of the rooftop market is not increasing as fast as that of surface power stations, because rooftop users are more sticky to existing brands or leading companies with first-mover advantage.

6. Longji's development goals and positioning in the next ten years?The company believes that the most important thing is to keep the conversion efficiency of mass production or the cost per kilowatt hour of power generation to a minimum. Capacity, silicon wafer is the most core link, the market share reached 40-50%;The market share of component links reached about 30%. If the specialized firms can survive under the current conditions, the firm will maintain the proportion of silicon wafers sold abroad, but if the downstream specialized firms lose their viability, the firm will move towards deeper integration. In terms of technological leadership, the absolute degree of leadership may be reduced, but the relative degree of leadership will remain.

7. How can the company stay ahead of future technological changes?1) In terms of technology research and development and storage, the company has invested the most in the whole industry, including various N-type battery technologies such as HJT. The company's current technical reserve can realize mass production at any time. However, considering the economy of new battery technology, it has not carried out mass production on a large scale. For the most cutting-edge technology in the industry, the company maintains a minimum quarterly frequency tracking and promotion.

2) Particle silicon.Company more bullish on silicon particles, particles high content of silica dust is the main issue, carbon content is high, easy to broken crystal, hydrogen leads to easy to silicon, pretty sure all of these problems can be solved, because ten years ago, silicon particles is used in the production of semiconductor products, but when used in the field of photovoltaic (pv) requires low cost solutions to these problems. In terms of dosage, granular silicon can be used about 80% is no problem.In recent years, the company has made continuous progress with GCL, but the problem of hydrogen content has not been completely solved. Tianhong Silicon has a relatively high investment of ten thousand tons. GCL said that the investment is 700 million yuan/ten thousand tons. The company has not yet determined the data.

3) N-type silicon: At present, there is not a qualified enterprise providing N-type silicon products in China, and N-type silicon is all using imported products such as Wacker.

4) Battery: according to the battery investment announced by the company, the market can have a preliminary judgment on the battery technology, but the company is not yet able to announce the specific technical route.

8. Does the talent training and reserve of the team support the rapid development of the company?

The company believes that there are mainly two development risks in the future: 1) the dark technology beyond the cognitive margin;2) Organization and management risks of the enterprise.The company has accumulated some core personnel in the early stage of entrepreneurship. For the continuous innovation in the following industries, the company will provide some platforms and opportunities for the current team and staff to innovate and start a business, and the company will provide strong support in resources.

9. The judgment on the entrants and industry pattern of silicon wafer industry?

The company has a thorough research on the size of silicon wafers. In 2021, Q2's silicon wafer production capacity will be 100GW, of which 95GW can produce products with a large size of 210. The company's production capacity can even produce 240-size silicon wafers after modification. In terms of batteries and components, the company has no reserved capacity for production of larger than 182 sizes, nor has it reserved the compatibility of the newly purchased equipment with 210 sizes.

10. What is the impact of the sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe and the United States on the silicon industry in Xinjiang?

Even in the United States, Europe and other regions, the effect of such restrictions on aggregate demand would be modest.The company has a special team to study the overseas trade policy, will make the best deal with this policy.

11. Has the company's founding vision and its current goals changed?1) From an individual point of view, from 1990 to 2000, it was mainly to meet the economic needs of families and individuals, and the subsequent development was the realization of personal value. In 2009, the company realized the annual meeting with a scale of 1,000 people, and began to realize the significance of enterprise and personal development to employees, which is to create a platform for career development for more than 30,000 people.So far, from an individual and household perspective, there is no need for individuals to reduce their holdings in companies. 2) In 2006, I began to think deeply about the development of the industry and the company. The essence of photovoltaic development is the continuous reduction of power generation cost, so I judged it to be the technical route of single crystal at that time.From 2013 to 2014, it was realized that photovoltaic would become the cheapest energy in the world. At that time, I was thinking about the role that photovoltaic should play in the future global development, and how to deal with its instability. In May 2018, the company began to propose the concept of Solar for Solar, which aims to restore the Earth's ecology, after taking a class in Cambridge, where the course covers the development of the Earth in 2050 and concerns about the Earth's future.

3) Summing up five key points for the future development of the enterprise: having a sense of social responsibility and values;Conform to or lead the trend of social development; Everything is customer-centric; Keep an open mind for foreign learning; Effective organization.

12. What are the future trends of battery technology?The theoretical conversion efficiency of single junction silicon cells is 29%, and the technical route of mass production efficiency of no more than 26% will basically be realized in the next few years, mainly due to cost requirements. The double junction cell theory reaches 41% efficiency, and the mass production efficiency is more than 30%. At present, the upper layer is perovskite technology, and the lower layer is crystal silicon route, in which the perovskite layer provides 17-18% efficiency contribution, but it is not stable. In the next decade, the company will strive for a breakthrough in this field.

13. What are the areas with the greatest potential for photovoltaic development in the future?1) The company is studying and analyzing the future development trend of the photovoltaic industry chain. Through the analysis of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, auxiliary materials and other fields, the company will find out the links of production capacity shortage, and participate in or enter into these fields. 2) The company will combine the experience of building moats on monocrystalline silicon wafers through equipment and apply it to other links such as batteries to maintain its core competitiveness.