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熱門(mén)關(guān)鍵詞： 光伏太陽(yáng)能板天窗 防水光伏太陽(yáng)能電池板 U玻璃光伏太陽(yáng)能電池板
最近各省拉閘限電的新聞?lì)l出，加上不少家庭緊急物資儲(chǔ)備清單中都提到了太陽(yáng)能板，以至于家庭太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電這門(mén)生意，又被不少網(wǎng)友議論起來(lái)?？炊嗟娜擞X(jué)得：碳中和、碳達(dá)峰背景下，煤炭發(fā)電成本升高，新能源替代需求上升；太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電設(shè)備的價(jià)格連續(xù)走低，不僅可以保證自家供電，還可以賣(mài)給電力公司賺錢(qián)。家庭太陽(yáng)能的發(fā)展空間，不就更大了嗎？看空的人覺(jué)得：回本周期長(zhǎng)，投資回報(bào)比較低，去掉補(bǔ)貼就沒(méi)有動(dòng)力；部署環(huán)境有一定要求，安裝在屋頂裝修改造時(shí)增加麻煩；需要定期維護(hù)、檢修，帶來(lái)額外成本……雙方的話(huà)聽(tīng)起來(lái)都有點(diǎn)道理，也引發(fā)了我的好奇。研究了國(guó)內(nèi)外家庭太陽(yáng)能行業(yè)的進(jìn)展之后我發(fā)現(xiàn)，這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的兩極化還挺明顯：既老又新——早在1860年，就有科學(xué)家認(rèn)為化石燃料將變得稀缺，光伏電池板和太陽(yáng)能收集器等設(shè)備就開(kāi)始流行起來(lái)；然而直到今天，太陽(yáng)能依然被視作方興未艾的新能源、新產(chǎn)業(yè)，光伏行業(yè)2019年上半年發(fā)展回顧與下半年形勢(shì)展望研討會(huì)上的行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，太陽(yáng)能等可再生能源發(fā)電量占總發(fā)電量比重只有20%。既洋又村——縱觀全球市場(chǎng)，踴躍支持家庭太陽(yáng)能來(lái)解決用電需求的，一種是歐美澳洲等西方現(xiàn)代國(guó)家的居民，2015年，全球光伏發(fā)電總裝機(jī)容量超過(guò)4000萬(wàn)千瓦，主要市場(chǎng)在德國(guó)、西班牙、日本、意大利，其中僅德國(guó)2015年新增裝機(jī)容量就700萬(wàn)千瓦。另一種則是中國(guó)農(nóng)村地區(qū)，是家庭太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電的主要發(fā)力點(diǎn)，許多中西部地區(qū)都將光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)作為重要的扶貧措施之一。共同特點(diǎn)是以獨(dú)棟建筑為主，屋頂便于拆改。
既多又少——太陽(yáng)能資源與太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)，未必是正相關(guān)的。比如非洲就是世界上陽(yáng)光最集中的大陸，太陽(yáng)能資源很豐富，但現(xiàn)實(shí)中非洲大陸只有南非是唯一一個(gè)擁有超過(guò)50兆瓦光伏電站的國(guó)家。美國(guó)加利福尼亞州的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電站比整個(gè)非洲都多，安裝的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電容量是全尼日利亞所有的發(fā)電能力的兩倍。歐洲的太陽(yáng)能資源也只有非洲的一小部分，卻擁有更多的太陽(yáng)能設(shè)備。這種兩極分化的表現(xiàn)，讓家庭太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出一種“啞鈴型”結(jié)構(gòu)，主要是集中在發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)和欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)。而我們知道，城市、城鎮(zhèn)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)，往往有著“收入效應(yīng)”“示范效應(yīng)”“聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng)”和“累積效應(yīng)”，說(shuō)人話(huà)就是來(lái)錢(qián)多、來(lái)錢(qián)快、來(lái)錢(qián)久。因此，穩(wěn)定的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)往往都是以中端消費(fèi)人群為主力的“紡錘形”。這也展現(xiàn)出家庭太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的一個(gè)基本事實(shí)：要迎來(lái)飛躍式增長(zhǎng)，需要從“啞鈴型”向“紡錘型”加速優(yōu)化，積極擁抱城市、城鎮(zhèn)市場(chǎng)，結(jié)束目前“兩極分化”的局面。那么，在城市鋪滿(mǎn)太陽(yáng)能板，這有可能嗎？光靠愛(ài)護(hù)環(huán)境之類(lèi)的情操，很難說(shuō)服絕大多數(shù)城鎮(zhèn)城市居民投入真金白銀和人力物力進(jìn)行改造。所以，很多國(guó)家在推行可持續(xù)能源戰(zhàn)略時(shí)，都會(huì)設(shè)計(jì)一系列鼓勵(lì)、補(bǔ)貼措施。比如2006加州議會(huì)就推出了“加利福尼亞太陽(yáng)能倡議”計(jì)劃，興起了一股安裝家用太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的熱潮。光有政策還不夠，位于市場(chǎng)中部的家庭消費(fèi)者，擁抱太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電還需要跨越三重障礙。
第一重：商業(yè)模式合理嗎？一般都認(rèn)為，家庭太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)“一次投入，25年回報(bào)”，是典型的長(zhǎng)期價(jià)值投資。我們可以來(lái)算一筆賬，一般1kW光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)，可用于家庭照明、電視、電腦的使用；3kW光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)可滿(mǎn)足一家3口人的生活用電需求，特別是廚房用電；5kW光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)可以滿(mǎn)足一家5口人的需求。家庭用戶(hù)往往更傾向于選擇5kW容量，大致需要投入4-10萬(wàn)元。2017年，中國(guó)某知名企業(yè)的家用5KW太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)，一條龍安裝需要4萬(wàn)元，美國(guó)亞利桑那州在補(bǔ)貼后，一個(gè)5KW太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)大概要1萬(wàn)美元左右。一項(xiàng)針對(duì)2200名房主的調(diào)查顯示，投資成本太高，難以考慮。此外，通過(guò)“自發(fā)自用、余電上網(wǎng)”“全額上網(wǎng)”等模式，獲得電量回報(bào)，回本周期往往也需要5-7年，此后才能進(jìn)入盈利期。而目前，各國(guó)針對(duì)綠色能源的補(bǔ)貼普遍在20-30%左右，美國(guó)在2020年為太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)提供
26% 的安裝成本。一旦大規(guī)模鋪開(kāi)，補(bǔ)貼取消，盈利周期又會(huì)繼續(xù)往后延長(zhǎng)。因此，鄉(xiāng)村居民如果缺乏安全可靠的投資渠道，將余錢(qián)投入到家用光伏發(fā)電中，無(wú)可厚非。但數(shù)字化程度高、金融產(chǎn)品服務(wù)豐富的城鎮(zhèn)城市居民，可能會(huì)覺(jué)得靠此盈利委實(shí)有點(diǎn)雞肋了。最有操作性的方案大概是，在窗外放置一個(gè)光伏板，滿(mǎn)足家庭電腦、手機(jī)等設(shè)備緊急充電的需求?？蛇@樣一來(lái)，又有多大的市場(chǎng)空間呢？
第二重：長(zhǎng)期保障存在嗎？當(dāng)然，或許也有人愿意無(wú)條件支持綠色能源，或者回報(bào)雖少但“螞蚱腿兒也是肉”，愿意在家里裝上太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)來(lái)解用電之渴。這種精神咱們當(dāng)然一萬(wàn)個(gè)支持。不過(guò)，大家在選擇相關(guān)設(shè)備之前，一定要好好想想后期運(yùn)維問(wèn)題。如前所說(shuō)，家用太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電想要保本/盈利，需要5年以上的時(shí)間，而光伏板的維護(hù)、蓄電池的老化、相關(guān)組件的衰減等等，都會(huì)帶來(lái)長(zhǎng)期清潔打理的需求，否則就會(huì)影響光能轉(zhuǎn)換效率，減少發(fā)電量。在澳洲等地，三十年前就開(kāi)始建設(shè)太陽(yáng)能家庭發(fā)電系統(tǒng)，已經(jīng)形成了相對(duì)成熟的市場(chǎng)機(jī)制和服務(wù)體系，消費(fèi)者不用太擔(dān)心設(shè)備商跑路/倒閉，找不到售后；或者草臺(tái)班子隨便維修的安全隱患。此外，家庭太陽(yáng)能的成本回收期比較長(zhǎng)，政策的可持續(xù)性也需要納入考量，否則一有變動(dòng)，就成“用愛(ài)發(fā)電”了。比如2015年，非洲尼日利亞就曾花費(fèi)160億美元發(fā)展太陽(yáng)能電力，但因?yàn)檎畣?wèn)題而最終失敗。這也是為什么全球產(chǎn)業(yè)論壇gridovate的報(bào)告認(rèn)為，非洲的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)展?jié)摿κ鞘澜缟献詈玫模鎸?shí)的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展卻遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不足的原因。可持續(xù)、可預(yù)見(jiàn)的長(zhǎng)效保障機(jī)制，是太陽(yáng)能行業(yè)擁有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的關(guān)鍵。
第三重：城市發(fā)展允許嗎？家用太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電除了太陽(yáng)能資源的硬性條件之外，還需要靠近主干電網(wǎng)，以減少新增輸電線路的投資。同時(shí)要距離用電負(fù)荷中心較近，以減少輸電損失。與用電負(fù)荷小且分散的農(nóng)村用戶(hù)相比，城市發(fā)展家用太陽(yáng)能似乎更具經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值。目前，中國(guó)城市化率在統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字上已經(jīng)達(dá)到了56%，看似帶來(lái)了巨大的市場(chǎng)空間，但需要注意的是，“以工業(yè)化帶動(dòng)城市化”的歐美現(xiàn)代化城市建設(shè)，在城市擴(kuò)張的同時(shí)，也產(chǎn)生了大量的問(wèn)題，比如金融資本匯聚導(dǎo)致資產(chǎn)價(jià)格高企，北上廣深等一線城市的人均居住面積都低于全國(guó)平均水平，這時(shí)候要找出20-30平方米的陽(yáng)光明媚、開(kāi)放、朝南的屋頂來(lái)安裝光伏板，得是啥家庭啊？在經(jīng)濟(jì)較為發(fā)達(dá)的江蘇等地，一般都是洋房或別墅等會(huì)在屋頂加裝。資產(chǎn)壁壘，進(jìn)一步限制了用戶(hù)規(guī)模。再比如，過(guò)去中國(guó)大中型城市的快速發(fā)展，在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、公共空間等方面留下了許多缺陷，近些年來(lái)許多城市都開(kāi)啟了升級(jí)美化，以期改善生活環(huán)境，提升居民生活幸福指數(shù)，在居住區(qū)加裝光伏板自然會(huì)影響小區(qū)的美觀度，造成一定的光污染，很難想象走在“變美”路上的城市會(huì)對(duì)藍(lán)哇哇的光伏板大加鼓勵(lì)。市場(chǎng)中部難以撬動(dòng)，是不是家用太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電就搞不下去了？并不是。今天中國(guó)大力推進(jìn)的城鎮(zhèn)化、鄉(xiāng)村振興等舉措，或許會(huì)給家用太陽(yáng)能行業(yè)帶來(lái)新的機(jī)會(huì)。“紡錘型”市場(chǎng)，未必一定是中部崛起，也可以是尾部向中部流動(dòng)，不是嗎？或許，家用太陽(yáng)能的未來(lái)，與很多行業(yè)一樣，都在綠色鄉(xiāng)村、生態(tài)中國(guó)。
Recently, the news of the provincial power cuts and the solar panels have been mentioned in many families' emergency supplies reserve lists, so that the business of household solar power generation has been discussed by many netizens again. Bulls think: under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, the cost of coal power generation will rise, and the demand for alternative energy will rise; The price of solar power equipment has continued to fall, not only to ensure that their own electricity supply, but also to sell to power companies to make money. Isn't there more room for home solar? Bearish people think: the recovery cycle is long, the investment return is relatively low, without subsidies there is no motivation; Deployment environment has certain requirements, installation in the renovation of the roof increase trouble; Need regular maintenance, overhaul, bring additional costs...... Both sides sounded reasonable and intrigued me. As I studied the progress of the home solar industry, both at home and abroad, I found that the polarization of the field was stark: old and new -- devices like photovoltaic panels and solar collectors became popular as early as 1860, when scientists believed fossil fuels would become scarce; However, until today, solar energy is still regarded as a new energy and new industry in the ascendant. According to industry data presented at the pv industry development Review in the first half of 2019 and outlook for the second half of 2019, solar and other renewable energy sources account for only 20% of the total power generation. Village -- throughout the global market, both the yankees and solar energy to solve the demand to support family, one kind is the residents of the modern western countries such as Europe and the United States, Australia, in 2015, the global photovoltaic total installed capacity of more than 40 million kw, the main market in Germany, Spain, Japan, Italy, Germany new power capacity in 2015 alone 7 million kilowatts. The other is China's rural areas, where household solar power is concentrated, and many central and western regions see the photovoltaic industry as an important poverty-alleviation measure. The common characteristic is single-family building, the roof is easy to tear down and change.
More and less -- there is not necessarily a positive correlation between solar resources and the solar power industry. For example, Africa is the continent with the most concentrated sunlight in the world, and solar energy resources are abundant. However, in reality, South Africa is the only country on the African continent with more than 50 MEGAwatts of photovoltaic power stations. California has more solar power plants than all of Africa, with twice as much installed solar capacity as all of Nigeria. Europe also has a fraction of Africa's solar resources, but more solar equipment. This polarisation gives the home solar industry a dumbbell structure, concentrated in developed and less developed regions. As we all know, consumption markets in cities and towns often have "income effect", "demonstration effect", "linkage effect" and "cumulative effect". Therefore, the stable market structure is often in the middle of the consumer group as the main "spindle". This also shows a basic fact of the development of home solar energy industry: to embrace a leap forward growth, we need to accelerate the optimization from "dumbbell" to "spindle", actively embrace the city and town market, and end the current "polarization" situation. So is it possible to blanket cities with solar panels? It is difficult to persuade the vast majority of urban residents to invest real money and human and material resources in environmental protection alone. Therefore, many countries will design a series of incentives and subsidies when implementing sustainable energy strategies. In 2006, for example, the California Legislature introduced the California Solar Initiative, which has led to a rush to install solar systems for homes. Policy alone is not enough. Household consumers in the middle of the market will have to jump three hurdles to embrace solar power.
First: is the business model reasonable? Home solar systems are generally considered to be "one-shot, 25-year payback" investments that typically offer long-term value. We can calculate an account, the general 1kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system, can be used for home lighting, television, computer use; 3kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system can meet the living electricity demand of a family of 3 people, especially the kitchen electricity; The 5kW PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation system can meet the needs of a family of 5 people. Home users tend to choose 5kW capacity, roughly need to invest 40,000-100,000 yuan. In 2017, a household 5KW solar power system of a well-known enterprise in China cost 40,000 yuan to install. After subsidies, a 5KW solar power system in Arizona in the United States costs about 10,000 DOLLARS. A survey of 2,200 homeowners suggests the cost of investment is too high to consider. In addition, through "spontaneous self-use, surplus electricity to access the Internet", "full access to the Internet" and other modes, to obtain electricity return, the current cycle often takes 5-7 years, then can enter the profit period. At present, green energy subsidies are generally around 20-30%, and the United States will provide 26% of the installation cost of solar power systems in 2020. Once it is rolled out on a large scale and subsidies are removed, the profit cycle will continue to be extended later. Therefore, if rural residents lack a safe and reliable investment channel, it is not wrong to put their spare money into household PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation. But urbanites, with their digitalization and wealth of financial products and services, may find this a bit of a stretch. The most practical solution would probably be to place a photovoltaic panel outside the window for emergency charging of home computers, mobile phones and other devices. But in this way, and how much market space?
Second: Does long-term security exist? Of course, there may be those who are willing to support green energy unconditionally, or who are willing to put solar power systems in their homes to satisfy their thirst for electricity. We certainly support this spirit. However, before you choose the relevant equipment, be sure to think about the late operation and maintenance problems. As mentioned above, it takes more than 5 years for household solar power generation to be break-even/profitable. The maintenance of photovoltaic panels, aging of batteries, attenuation of related components, etc., will bring the need for long-term cleaning and care, otherwise it will affect the light energy conversion efficiency and reduce power generation. In Australia and other places, solar home power generation system was started 30 years ago, and a relatively mature market mechanism and service system has been formed. Consumers do not have to worry too much about equipment suppliers going out of business or failing to find after-sales service. Or caotai team maintenance of security risks. In addition, the cost recovery period of household solar energy is relatively long, and the sustainability of the policy needs to be taken into consideration, otherwise any change will become "electricity from love". Nigeria, for example, spent $16 billion on solar power in 2015, but it failed because of government problems. This is why a report by Gridovate, a global industry forum, argues that Africa has the best solar potential in the world, but real industrial development is far from adequate. A sustainable and predictable long-term guarantee mechanism is the key to the competitiveness of the solar industry.
Third: is urban development allowed?
In
addition to the rigid requirements of solar resources, domestic solar power needs to be close to the main grid to reduce investment in new transmission lines.
At
the same time, it should be close to the power load center to reduce transmission loss.
Compared
with rural users with small and scattered electricity loads, it seems more economic to develop residential solar power in cities.
At
present, China's urbanization rate has reached 56% in statistics, appears to be a huge market space, but it is important to note that the "industrialization promoting urbanization" of European and American modern city construction, expansion
in the city at the same time, also produced a lot of problems, such as financial capital gathering cause asset prices are high,
With
per-capita living space in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all below the national average, what kind of family would have to find 20-30 square meters of sunny, open, south-facing roofs to install photovoltaic
panels on?
In
economically developed jiangsu and other places, are generally houses or villas and so on in the roof.
Asset
barriers, further limit the scale of users.
Again,
for example, in the past, the rapid development of large and medium-sized cities in China, in terms of infrastructure, public space left many defects, in recent years many cities have started the upgrade beautification, in order to improve
the living environment, improve residents' life happiness, in the residential area equipped with photovoltaic panels will effect the beauty of the village of degrees, causing a certain amount of light pollution,
It
is hard to imagine cities on the road to beauty encouraging blu-hued photovoltaic panels.
The
middle of the market is difficult to move, is household solar power not to go down?
And
it isn't.
Today,
China's efforts to promote urbanization, rural revitalization and other measures may bring new opportunities to the household solar industry.
"Spindle"
market, not necessarily the rise of the middle, can also be tail to the middle of the flow, right?
Perhaps,
the future of home solar energy, like many industries, lies in green countryside, ecological China.
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