一、硅料：新增產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)釋放，盈利依然強(qiáng)勁

1.1 2022年新增產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)釋放，有效供給超280GW

2022年上半年新增產(chǎn)能釋放，對應(yīng)硅料總供給280GW+：2021年無新增產(chǎn)能釋放，在硅片1kg出158片數(shù) （片）68片，轉(zhuǎn)換效率在23%、單瓦硅耗3g/W的情況下，我們測算硅料總供給在190GW（實(shí)際生產(chǎn)中可 能會有一定損耗）。

1.2 五寡頭格局，通威有望率先突圍

2020年疫情影響下，硅料價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，小廠商虧損嚴(yán)重逐漸退出競爭， 行業(yè)形成保利協(xié)鑫、通威、新特、大全新能源、東方希望五家寡頭壟斷格局。通威硅料擴(kuò)產(chǎn)節(jié)奏領(lǐng)先同業(yè)， 在2021年底投產(chǎn)8萬噸產(chǎn)能，同時(shí)與下游硅片巨頭隆基、一體化廠商天合光能簽訂長單保證銷售，我們預(yù)計(jì)到2022年通威率先突圍，市占率接近30%。

1.3 硅料上漲至近10年新高，預(yù)計(jì)2022年均價(jià)15萬左右

2022年硅料供給充分后價(jià)格將理性回落，我們預(yù)計(jì)2022年均價(jià)15萬左右：2020Q3以來，硅料漲價(jià)周期 開啟，供需持續(xù)緊缺，年后價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，2021年11月已至27萬元/噸，硅料近期上漲至近10年新高，龍 頭通威持續(xù)受益，2021年全年硅料供需緊平衡，價(jià)格維持高位。

1.4 顆粒硅逐步被下游驗(yàn)證，量產(chǎn)開始

顆粒硅優(yōu)勢：1）生產(chǎn)能耗大幅降低：能耗為20度電，較西門子法降低2/3，單噸成本節(jié)約0.9萬元，未來 若考慮碳稅則優(yōu)勢更大；2）單位投資額下降：每萬噸投資額7億元（西門子法10億元），單噸折舊成本 節(jié)約0.15萬元；3）設(shè)備連續(xù)生產(chǎn)，后續(xù)可配合硅片廠實(shí)現(xiàn)CCZ，提高生產(chǎn)效率。

二、硅片：2022年競爭激烈，龍頭盈利韌性強(qiáng)

2.1 行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩，我們預(yù)計(jì)2022年競爭激烈，硅片盈利下行

高盈利推動大擴(kuò)產(chǎn)，產(chǎn)能過剩問題逐漸顯現(xiàn)：受價(jià)格堅(jiān)挺&成本下降的雙重影響，硅片盈利性逐步攀升， 推動行業(yè)大幅擴(kuò)產(chǎn)。2019年底至2021年，單晶硅片進(jìn)入新一輪產(chǎn)能周期，我們測算龍頭企業(yè)硅片產(chǎn)能達(dá)到 342GW，2022年底達(dá)到484.5GW。

2.2 硅片雙龍頭格局，新興龍頭加速追趕

預(yù)計(jì)2021年雙寡頭占據(jù)61%市場份額，2022年新興龍頭加速追趕。隨著單晶拉晶技術(shù)逐漸成熟，晶 科能源、晶澳科技等一體化組件廠開始向上游擴(kuò)產(chǎn)，后起之秀上機(jī)數(shù)控、雙良節(jié)能、京運(yùn)通等也進(jìn)入這個(gè) 行業(yè)，2021-2022年新增產(chǎn)能集中釋放，硅片競爭趨于激烈，非硅成本成為競爭核心。

2.3 2021年硅片價(jià)格跟漲，目前開始回落

歷史上看，硅片的價(jià)格波動主要取決于兩個(gè)方面：一個(gè)是硅料的成本；另一個(gè)是，非硅的成本，主要取決于 技術(shù)的進(jìn)步。年后隨著上游多晶硅價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，國內(nèi)單晶硅片廠商緊隨其后跟漲價(jià)格。

2.4 大尺寸和薄片化趨勢明確，龍頭盈利能力強(qiáng)勁

大尺寸帶來全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈降本提效，硅片龍頭率先調(diào)整產(chǎn)能及出貨。大尺寸趨勢明確，硅片龍頭新增產(chǎn)能均兼 容182與210，我們預(yù)計(jì)2021、2022年底硅片大尺寸產(chǎn)能220GW、528GW，因此硅片端不會成為制約大 尺寸發(fā)展的瓶頸。

First, silicon: new production capacity has been released, profitability is still strong  

 

 

 

1.1 In 2022, new production capacity will be released successively, and the effective supply will exceed 280GW  

 

 

 

In the first half of 2022, the new capacity will be released, corresponding to the total silicon supply of 280GW+ : no new capacity will be released in 2021. Under the condition that the number of 158 silicon chips (chips) is 68 for 1kg, the conversion efficiency is 23%, and the single watt of silicon consumes 3G /W, we calculate that the total silicon supply is 190GW (there may be some loss in actual production).  

 

 

 

1.2 Five oligopoly pattern, Tongwei is expected to take the lead in breaking through  

 

 

 

In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the price of silicon materials continued to fall, and small manufacturers gradually withdrew from the competition due to serious losses. The industry formed an oligopoly pattern of five companies: GCL-Poly, Tongwei, Xinte, Daall-New Energy and Orient Hope.   Tongwei silicon material production expansion pace is leading the industry, putting into production capacity of 80,000 tons by the end of 2021, and signing long orders with downstream silicon chip giant Longji and integrated manufacturer Trina Solar to guarantee sales. We expect that Tongwei will take the lead in breaking out of the market by 2022, with a market share of nearly 30%.  

 

 

 

1.3 silicon material rose to a new 10-year high, is expected to 2022 average annual price of about 150,000  

 

 

 

In 2022, the price will fall rationally after the silicon supply is sufficient. We expect the average annual price of about 150,000 in 2022:  Since 2020Q3, silicon material price rise cycle opened, supply and demand continue to be in short supply, the year after the price continues to rise, in November 2021 has reached 270,000 yuan/ton, silicon material recently rose to a new high in nearly 10 years, leading Tongwei continued to benefit, the whole year 2021 silicon material supply and demand tight balance, the price to maintain high.  

 

 

 

1.4 Particle silicon is gradually verified downstream and mass production begins  

 

 

 

Advantages of granular silicon: 1) Production energy consumption is greatly reduced: the energy consumption is 20 KWH, which is 2/3 lower than that of Siemens method, and the cost per ton is saved by 9,000 yuan. If carbon tax is considered in the future, the advantages will be greater;   2) Decrease in investment per unit: 700 million yuan per ten thousand tons (1 billion yuan for Siemens method), saving 0.15 million yuan in depreciation cost per ton;  3) Continuous production of equipment, and subsequent CCZ can be achieved with silicon wafer factory to improve production efficiency.  

 

 

 

Second, silicon chip: in 2022, the competition is fierce, leading profit resilience  

 

 

 

2.1 Industry overcapacity, we expect intense competition in 2022, wafer profitability downward  

 

 

 

High profitability promotes large expansion of production, and the problem of overcapacity gradually emerges: Influenced by the dual impact of strong prices and falling costs, the profitability of silicon wafers gradually rises, which promotes the industry to expand production substantially.   From the end of 2019 to 2021, monocrystalline silicon wafers entered a new round of production capacity cycle. We calculate that the silicon wafers capacity of leading enterprises reached 342GW and 484.5GW by the end of 2022.  

 

 

 

2.2 Silicon chip double leading pattern, emerging leading speed up to catch up  

 

 

 

The duopoly is expected to hold 61% of the market share in 2021, with emerging leaders accelerating their catch-up in 2022.  With the gradual maturity of the single crystal pulling technology, JinkoSolar, JA and other integrated component plants began to expand their production upstream, and rising stars such as CNC, Shuangliang Energy Saving and Beijing Yuntong also entered the industry. In 2021-2022, the new production capacity was released in a concentrated way, and the silicon chip competition became more intense, and the non-silicon cost became the core of the competition.  

 

 

 

2.3 In 2021, the price of silicon wafers followed the rise, and now it starts to fall  

 

 

 

Historically, the price of silicon wafers has fluctuated based on two things: the cost of silicon;  The other is that the cost of non-silicon depends largely on technological advances.  After the upstream polysilicon prices continued to rise, the domestic monocrystalline silicon chip manufacturers followed with price increases.  

 

 

 

2.4 The trend of large size and lamination is clear, leading to strong profitability  

 

Large size brings the whole industry chain to reduce costs and improve efficiency, silicon leading to take the lead in adjusting capacity and shipment.  The trend of large size is clear. The leading new capacity of silicon chip is both 182 and 210. We expect that the large capacity of silicon chip is 220GW and 528GW at the end of 2021 and 2022, so the silicon chip end will not become the bottleneck restricting the development of large size.  

 

 

 

3. Battery: Profit will be gradually repaired in 2022, and new technologies will start to break the game  

 

 

 

3.1 Demand for large-size batteries increases. Structural opportunities in 2022  

 

 

 

PERC has relatively excess capacity, but the size earnings are clearly differentiated, which brings structural opportunities.  PERC's capacity expanded rapidly to over 390GW by the end of 2022, of which the 182&210 large-size capacity is 270GW, accounting for about 70%, in a tight balance.  

 

 

 

3.2 Rapid increase in concentration, professional manufacturers emerged  

 

 

 

In 2022, the concentration of battery chip pattern rapidly increased, and it was divided into two camps: specialization and integration.  In 2021, the concentration of CR6 exceeded 80%. Among the top six, Tongwei and Aixu are professional battery factories, leading the second and third tier manufacturers in efficiency and cost.  The other four JA, Jinko, TRW, and Longji are integrated manufacturers, expanding production of batteries to complement the integrated production capacity.  

 

 

 

3.3 Obvious size differentiation, profitable repair can be expected  

 

 

 

Both ends of the battery are at the bottom of the compression profit position, the high demand in 2022 profit repair can be expected.  In 2021, silicon materials and silicon wafers continued to rise in price, but the battery wafers could not keep up with the rise due to poor competition pattern and short inventory cycle. At the same time, downstream demand fed back to the battery wafers, making the battery squeezed at both ends. In 2021, Q1-3 battery wafers broke even in first-tier enterprises, while second-tier enterprises suffered losses, and their profitability declined.  

 

 

 

3.4 In 2022, TOPCon will take the lead and HJT industrialization will be achieved soon  

 

 

 

Battery technology more bloom, TOPCon has arrived!  The efficiency of PERC has reached its peak, and the emergence of high-efficiency new battery technology has brought new industrial opportunities. In 2020, the mass production conversion efficiency of new technologies HJT and TOPCon has reached 23.5-25.5%, which is still improving.  For TOPCon, 16GW of JinkoSolar, 10GW of Longi, 8GW of Trina Solar and other TOPCon mass production lines are scheduled to be launched in 2022.  

 

 

 

Four, components: the leading concentration continues to improve, the full benefit of double rise  

 

 

 

4.1 General trend of integration, the matching rate of each link is gradually increased  

 

 

 

The rapid increase of component concentration leads to an increase in the matching rate of each link: due to low investment per unit capacity, slow technological change and mainly physical packaging in component link, the industry's total capacity is relatively excess.  

 

 

 

4.2 The concentration increased rapidly, and the CR5 of components shipped reached 85%  

 

 

 

We expect the top five to account for 85% of shipments in 2022.  In recent years, the concentration of the component industry has increased rapidly. Longji, Jinko and JA, with their brand advantages and well-integrated industrial chain layout, are leading the industry.  In 2021 CR4 was around 88%, and in 2022 we expect CR5 shipment concentration to be around 85%.  

 

 

 

4.3 Profit gradually out of the bottom, optimistic 2022 volume and profit double rise  

 

 

 

Earnings gradually out of the bottom, bullish on 2022 single watt earnings repair.  From the main components leading single tile profit, in the case of rising silicon prices, 2021Q1 is mainly due to the domestic low price of more orders, profits are basically at the bottom, followed by 2021Q1 low price single delivery, glass price to hedge part of the silicon price, 2021Q2 manufacturers profit repair;  2021Q3 demand starting volume, component manufacturers scheduling increased compared to the previous quarter superposition large size shipment account for the increase in profit beyond our expectations.  

 

 

 

4.4 182&210 General trend is clear, BIPV becomes the growth highlight  

 

 

 

182&210 into the big trend in 2021, leading manufacturers shipping gradually to 182&210 transfer: leading manufacturers shipping gradually to large size transfer, 2021 large size shipment is guaranteed, we expect the industry in 2022 large size accounts for 60%+, leading up to 70%+.  

 

 

 

Five, inverter: export acceleration, high energy storage, leading rise  

 

 

 

5.1 Inverter export substitution continues and profitability structure improves  

 

 

 

Domestic enterprises are accelerating to go abroad: We split the overseas market, domestic inverter products are good and the price is low. After establishing the channel brand, the price strategy will quickly seize the market. In 2020, the global market share of Chinese enterprises will account for about 70% (according to the shipment volume), which will be increased to more than 85% in the next 3-5 years.  

 

 

 

5.2 Domestic leader stands out, Sunshine dragon one position is stable  

 

 

 

Global inverters with double heads in 2021.  From the 2021 pattern, Sunshine Power (31.3%), Huawei (23.1%) double leading pattern, other domestic inverter manufacturers such as Jinlang, Goodway, GureWatt share is still small.  U Accelerated overseas substitution, domestic leaders stand out: domestic enterprises continued to benefit in 2021  

 

 

 

5.3 High growth rate of distributed market, consumption attribute of inverters, and higher profit  

 

 

 

Distributed markets are more expensive and profitable.  From the perspective of unit price, the unit price of household inverter is much higher than that of commercial and industrial inverter. The reason is that the centralized inverter is more used in centralized power stations, and the 2B mode has a low unit price, and the distributed market is more for individual consumers.  

 

 

 

5.4 Chip shortage in recent two years, price rise transmission cost pressure  

 

 

 

The inverter production cost is mainly direct materials, accounting for 93% : in 2020, the manufacturing cost accounts for 4%, labor accounts for 3%, and direct materials account for 93% of the production cost, including 24.8% for structural parts, 12.8% for inductors, 10.6% for semiconductor devices, 10% for photovoltaic system components, and 8.4% for capacitors.  

 

 

 

5.5 Energy storage inverter is in great demand and has become a new growth point  

 

 

 

In 2022, the PCS cost of energy storage inverters accounted for about 11.3% of the energy storage system.  The economic inflection point of energy storage has reached, the trillion blue ocean market space is vast, and a number of domestic and foreign support policies have been implemented. It is expected that the global new energy storage installed capacity will reach 131GW/318GWh by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 79% from 2021-2025. 

三、電池：2022年盈利逐步修復(fù)，新技術(shù)開始破局

3.1 大尺寸電池需求提升，2022年看結(jié)構(gòu)性機(jī)會

PERC產(chǎn)能相對過剩，但尺寸盈利分化明顯，帶來結(jié)構(gòu)性機(jī)會。PERC產(chǎn)能迅速擴(kuò)張，到2022年底超390GW， 其中182&210大尺寸產(chǎn)能為270GW，占比約70%，處于緊平衡狀態(tài)。

3.2 集中度迅速提升，專業(yè)化廠商顯露頭角

2022年電池片格局集中度迅速提升，分為專業(yè)化和一體化兩大陣營。2021年CR6集中度超過80%，前6名 中，通威股份、愛旭股份是專業(yè)電池廠，效率、成本領(lǐng)先二三線廠商；其余4家晶澳、晶科、天合、隆基為 一體化廠商，擴(kuò)產(chǎn)電池片補(bǔ)齊一體化產(chǎn)能。 

3.3 尺寸分化明顯，盈利修復(fù)可期

電池兩頭受壓盈利處于底部位置，2022年需求高增盈利修復(fù)可期。2021年硅料、硅片持續(xù)漲價(jià)，但電池片 因競爭格局差且?guī)齑嬷芷诙?，無法跟漲，同時(shí)下游需求反饋到電池片，使得電池處于兩頭受擠壓的局面， 2021年Q1-3電池片一線企業(yè)盈虧平衡，二線企業(yè)虧損，盈利能力均有所下降。

3.4 2022年TOPCon率先發(fā)力，HJT產(chǎn)業(yè)化在即

電池技術(shù)多點(diǎn)開花，TOPCon已至！PERC效率已達(dá)頂點(diǎn)，高效率新電池技術(shù)的出現(xiàn)帶來了新的產(chǎn)業(yè)機(jī)會， 2020年新技術(shù)HJT、TOPCon量產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換效率已能做到23.5-25.5%，仍在不斷提升。TOPCon方面，晶科能 源16GW、隆基股份10GW、天合光能8GW等TOPcon量產(chǎn)線均計(jì)劃在2022年落地。

四、組件：龍頭集中度繼續(xù)提升，充分受益量利雙升

4.1 一體化大趨勢，各環(huán)節(jié)配套率逐步提升

組件集中度迅速提升，帶動各環(huán)節(jié)配套率提升：組件環(huán)節(jié)由于單位產(chǎn)能投資低、技術(shù)變化緩慢且主要為物理 封裝，行業(yè)總產(chǎn)能相對過剩。

4.2 集中度迅速提升，組件出貨CR5達(dá)85%

我們預(yù)計(jì)2022年前五龍頭出貨占比達(dá)85%。近年來組件行業(yè)集中度迅速提升，品牌優(yōu)勢、產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈一體化布 局較為完善的隆基、晶科、晶澳走在行業(yè)前列。2021年CR4為88%左右，2022年我們預(yù)計(jì)CR5出貨集中度 為85%左右。

4.3 盈利逐步走出底部，看好2022年量利雙升

盈利逐步走出底部，看好2022年單瓦盈利修復(fù)。從主要組件龍頭單瓦盈利來看，在硅料價(jià)格不斷上漲的 情況下，2021Q1主要由于國內(nèi)低價(jià)單較多，盈利基本處于底部，后續(xù)隨著2021Q1低價(jià)單交付，玻璃降 價(jià)對沖部分硅料漲價(jià)，2021Q2廠商盈利有所修復(fù)；2021Q3需求起量，組件廠商排產(chǎn)環(huán)比有所提升疊加 大尺寸出貨占比提升盈利超我們預(yù)期。

4.4 182&210大趨勢明確，BIPV成增長亮點(diǎn)

182&210成2021年大趨勢，龍頭廠商出貨逐漸向182&210轉(zhuǎn)移：龍頭廠商出貨逐漸向大尺寸轉(zhuǎn)移，2021 年大尺寸出貨有保障，我們2022年預(yù)計(jì)行業(yè)大尺寸占比60%+，龍頭達(dá)70%+。

五、逆變器：出口加速，儲能高增，龍頭崛起

5.1 逆變器出口替代持續(xù)，盈利結(jié)構(gòu)改善

國內(nèi)企業(yè)加速出海：我們拆分海外市場來看，國內(nèi)逆變器產(chǎn)品好價(jià)格低，在建立起渠道品牌后，通過價(jià)格策 略迅速搶占市場，2020年全球市場份額中國內(nèi)企業(yè)占比70%左右（按出貨量），未來3-5年或?qū)⑻嵘?85%以上。

5.2 國產(chǎn)龍頭脫穎而出，陽光龍一地位穩(wěn)固

2021年全球逆變器雙龍頭格局。從2021年格局來看，陽光電源（31.3%）、華為（23.1%）雙龍頭格局， 國內(nèi)其他逆變器廠商如錦浪、固德威、古瑞瓦特份額仍較小。u 海外加速替代，國產(chǎn)龍頭脫穎而出：2021年國內(nèi)企業(yè)繼續(xù)受益

5.3 分布式市場高增速，逆變器具備消費(fèi)屬性，盈利更高

分布式市場單價(jià)更高、盈利更好。從單價(jià)看，戶用逆變器單價(jià)遠(yuǎn)高于商業(yè)和工業(yè)，原因在于集中式逆變器 更多應(yīng)用于集中電站，2B模式低單價(jià)，分布式市場更多為個(gè)人消費(fèi)者。

5.4 近兩年芯片短缺，價(jià)格上漲傳導(dǎo)成本壓力

逆變器生產(chǎn)成本主要是直接材料，占比達(dá)到93%：2020年制造費(fèi)用占4%，人工占3%，生產(chǎn)成本中直接材 料占93%，其中結(jié)構(gòu)件占24.8%，電感占12.8%，半導(dǎo)體器件占10.6%，光伏系統(tǒng)組件占10%，電容占8.4%。

5.5 儲能逆變器需求旺盛，成為新的業(yè)績增長點(diǎn)

2022年儲能逆變器PCS成本約占儲能系統(tǒng)11.3%。儲能經(jīng)濟(jì)性拐點(diǎn)已至，萬億藍(lán)海市場空間廣闊，且目前國 內(nèi)外多項(xiàng)支持政策密集落地，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年全球新增儲能裝機(jī)達(dá)到131GW/318GWh，2021-2025年 復(fù)合增速為79%。