中國(guó)光伏行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2021年1-10月，光伏發(fā)電新增裝機(jī)29.31GW，同比增長(zhǎng)34%。其中，分布式裝機(jī)19.03GW，占比達(dá)64.9%。

政策方面，近日，工業(yè)和信息化部等五部委印發(fā)《智能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展行動(dòng)計(jì)劃（2021-2025年）》提到，在有條件的城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村地區(qū)，統(tǒng)籌推進(jìn)居民屋面智能光伏系統(tǒng)，鼓勵(lì)新建政府投資公益性建筑推廣太陽(yáng)能屋頂系統(tǒng)。開展以智能光伏系統(tǒng)為核心，以儲(chǔ)能、建筑電力需求響應(yīng)等新技術(shù)為載體的區(qū)域級(jí)光伏分布式應(yīng)用示范。

與集中式光伏相比，分布式光伏造價(jià)低、收益率高，經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì)更為突出。根據(jù)太陽(yáng)能行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)、西勘院、中信建投證券測(cè)算數(shù)據(jù)，以組件價(jià)格1.95元/W測(cè)算，集中式光伏電站單位投資成本為4.2元/W，分布式光伏電站單位投資成本為3.2元/W，分布式光伏系統(tǒng)造價(jià)顯著低于集中式電站；若全額上網(wǎng)，分布式光伏電站收益率顯著高于集中式光伏電站。

當(dāng)前，相關(guān)分布式企業(yè)包括：正泰電器、晶科科技、中來股份、天合光能等。

“在整縣分布式光伏的推動(dòng)下，預(yù)計(jì)光伏集中式占比將逐漸小幅下移，分布式光伏有望進(jìn)入規(guī)?；l(fā)展階段。”有業(yè)內(nèi)人士向《科創(chuàng)板日?qǐng)?bào)》記者分析表示。

中國(guó)光伏行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)名譽(yù)理事長(zhǎng)王勃華表示，未來分布式光伏將迎來規(guī)模化發(fā)展的市場(chǎng)空間。“原因主要有兩點(diǎn)：

第一，國(guó)家、地方政策的支持，以央企為梯隊(duì)，地方國(guó)有企業(yè)和跨界能源巨頭企業(yè)為代表紛紛進(jìn)入分布式市場(chǎng)。

第二，光伏盈利模式、商業(yè)模式的多元化。盈利上光伏電站收益新增綠電交易和碳交易（CCER）等盈利模式，商業(yè)模式方面是綜合能源服務(wù)和光伏與電動(dòng)汽車融合發(fā)展。”

中泰證券指出，貿(mào)易形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻及供應(yīng)鏈價(jià)格上漲導(dǎo)致光伏裝機(jī)不達(dá)預(yù)期，2021年裝機(jī)預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)，而2022年裝機(jī)規(guī)模有望高增至60-75GW；長(zhǎng)城證券研究認(rèn)為，2022年全球光伏市場(chǎng)有望在原材料價(jià)格下行和政策支持雙驅(qū)動(dòng)下迎來需求大年，預(yù)計(jì)2022年，國(guó)內(nèi)光伏新增裝機(jī)110GW。

對(duì)此，山東航禹能源有限公司執(zhí)行董事丁文磊向《科創(chuàng)板日?qǐng)?bào)》記者分析認(rèn)為，“2022年，光伏裝機(jī)保守估計(jì)約80GW，樂觀估計(jì)或?qū)⑼黄?00GW。”

另?yè)?jù)中國(guó)光伏行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)名譽(yù)理事長(zhǎng)王勃華預(yù)測(cè)，“在國(guó)內(nèi)巨大的光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目?jī)?chǔ)備量推動(dòng)下，2022年光伏裝機(jī)可能會(huì)增至75GW以上。”

Prospect 1: New capacity of silicon material may be released in the second half of the year  

In the photovoltaic industry chain, the upstream includes: silicon material, silicon chip;  The middle is: battery, battery components;  Downstream is the application system link.  

Among them, in terms of capacity, data from silicon Industry Branch show that according to the expansion plan announced by domestic silicon material and silicon wafer enterprises, the capacity of silicon wafer is still growing substantially in 2022, with the sequential growth expected to be more than 20%;   The newly built capacity of silicon material will be released in the early or middle of 2022. The annual silicon material output is expected to be about 750,000 tons, which is still insufficient compared with the expected terminal installed capacity of 220-230GW.  

However, the release of new capacity will take time.  "Polysilicon expansion cycle is long, from the beginning of construction to production needs about 12-18 months, and open furnace production, capacity climbing, full production takes 3-6 months."  Analysis of the personage inside course of study.  Meanwhile, "Effective capacity additions are limited in the first half of 2022, with expanded capacity gradually reaching production in mid-2022," according to CIMB Research.  

"With the release of new capacity, the competitiveness of old capacity (e.g., low conversion efficiency, high manufacturing cost, low price) will be sharply reduced.   It also means that the release of new capacity forces an accelerated exit of old capacity.  In such a situation, there will not be too much excess pressure.  Shan Dong Hang Yu energy Co., LTD. Executive director Ding Wenlei to "science and technology innovation Board Daily" reporter analysis said.  

Feng Xiaoting, a photovoltaic industry researcher at Griffey Capital, told KECHUANG Board Daily: "Theoretically, the more production capacity there is, the weaker the voice will be.   In 2022, the capacity of silicon material is expected to increase by more than 40%, and there will not be a very 'strong' situation of silicon material.  "As more nominal capacity grows downstream, a dynamic balance is expected to emerge, such as through the liquidation of old capacity."  

In terms of price, According to Lu Jinbiao, deputy director of expert Committee of China Non-ferrous Silicon Industry Association, "in the second half of 2022, silicon material supply will increase significantly, and new silicon chip factories will start to purchase silicon material in large quantities, and the silicon material price will decline."  

Feng Xiaoting predicted to "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" that "in 2022, the price of silicon chip will fall, the price of silicon material will fall, and the capacity of silicon chip will be released."  

Great Wall Securities research said that silicon prices will be stable in the first half of 2022, the second half of the year or will accelerate the decline, the annual price center or will fall in 150-200 yuan /kg.  

Prospect 2: Can n-type battery accelerate its development  

At present, N battery has become a new round of competition within the industry.  PV InfoLink data show that compared with P-type cells, N-type cells have advantages such as high specific conversion efficiency, low temperature coefficient, low optical attenuation coefficient and weak light response, which not only have lower BOS cost (system cost outside PV modules), but also have higher power generation over the full life cycle than P-type cells.  

"The current technology route for N-type batteries mainly includes TOPCon, HJT, IBC or a combination of the three technologies.  The key is which technology route can be the first to achieve conversion efficiency at low cost."  There are senior practitioners in the industry to "science and technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter analysis said.  

Among them, Lonji, Jinkosolar, One Sun Energy, China Photoelectric and so on have all laid out N-type TOPCon batteries;  At the same time, according to incomplete statistics, Huasheng new energy, Junshi Energy, mountain coal International, Tongwei shares, Aikang Technology, Oriental Sunrise, Mingyang Intelligent, King Kong glass have announced GW class heterojunction project expansion plan.  

"In general, n-cell technology has its own unique route.  TOPCon is the road chosen by most of the old manufacturers, while HJT is known as the way for new players to overtake in the curve. At the same time, The N-type ABC battery of Asahi Shares is also quite interesting."  Feng Xiaoting thinks.  

In terms of policy, recently, five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Action Plan for Innovation and Development of Intelligent Photovoltaic Industry (2021-2025), which mentioned the development and industrialization of n-type TOPCon, HJT, IBC and other efficient batteries.  

Cicc research said that the current P-type battery has basically reached the performance limit of mass production, and n-type battery is expected to pull the industry technology development to a higher level, is the main melody of the industry technology development in the next five years, is expected to reopen the gap in technological strength between enterprises, and bring new investment logic and opportunities.   According to the expansion plan of various mainstream manufacturers, the scale of N-type battery may reach 40-50GW in 2022, and the starting amount of N-type demand will affect the competitive pattern of all links of the industrial chain.  

Prospect 3: Distributed photovoltaic development is expected to scale  

From January to October 2021, 29.31GW of new photovoltaic power generation was installed, up 34 percent year-on-year, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.   Among them, the distributed installed capacity was 19.03GW, accounting for 64.9%.  

In terms of policy, recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five ministries issued the "Intelligent Photovoltaic Industry Innovation and Development Action Plan (2021-2025)" mentioned that, in urban and rural areas where conditions permit, the overall promotion of intelligent residential roof photovoltaic system, encourage new government investment in public welfare buildings to promote solar roof system.   To carry out region-level demonstration of distributed application of photovoltaic with intelligent photovoltaic system as the core and new technologies such as energy storage and building power demand response as the carrier.  

Compared with centralized pv, distributed PV has low cost, high yield and more prominent economic advantages.  According to the calculation data of Solar Energy Industry Association, West Exploration & Surveying Institute and CITIC Construction & Investment Securities, the unit investment cost of centralized photovoltaic power station is 4.2 yuan /W and that of distributed photovoltaic power station is 3.2 yuan /W based on the component price of 1.95 yuan /W. The cost of distributed photovoltaic system is significantly lower than that of centralized power station.  If fully connected to the Internet, the yield of distributed photovoltaic power station is significantly higher than that of centralized photovoltaic power station.  

At present, related distributed enterprises include chint Electric Appliance, Jinkotech, China Lai Stock, Trina Solar energy, etc.  

"Driven by distributed pv in the whole county, it is expected that the proportion of photovoltaic concentration will gradually move down slightly, and distributed PV is expected to enter the stage of large-scale development."   Industry insiders to "science and technology innovation Board daily" reporter analysis said.  

Wang Bohua, honorary president of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the future distributed photovoltaic will usher in large-scale development of the market space.   "There are two main reasons:  

First, support from national and local policies, with central enterprises as echelons, local state-owned enterprises and cross-border energy giants as representatives, have entered the distributed market.  

Second, diversification of photovoltaic profit model and business model.  In terms of profits, new profit models such as green electricity trading and carbon trading (CCER) have been added to the profits of photovoltaic power stations. The business model is integrated energy services and integrated development of photovoltaic and electric vehicles."  

Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the severe trade situation and supply chain price rise led to photovoltaic installed capacity is not up to expectations, 2021 installed capacity forecast downward, and 2022 installed capacity is expected to increase to 60-75GW;   Great Wall Securities research believes that in 2022, the global photovoltaic market is expected to usher in a big year of demand driven by declining raw material prices and policy support. It is estimated that in 2022, the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 110GW.  

In this regard, Ding Wenlei, executive director of Shandong Airlines Yu Energy Co., Ltd. told kEChuang Board Daily that "in 2022, photovoltaic installed capacity is conservatively estimated to be about 80GW, and optimistic estimates may break through 100GW."  

According to Wang Bohua, honorary president of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, "Driven by the huge reserves of photovoltaic power generation projects in China, photovoltaic installed capacity may increase to more than 75GW in 2022."