”隆基股份的逆襲再次說明公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的眼光和魄力是多么重要“去年一直到現(xiàn)在新能源尤其是光伏被市場熱炒，光伏龍頭隆基股份2020年全年股價更是漲了277.1%，年后依然沒有停止的跡象，短短4個工作日股價又漲了23.16%。其實，隆基股份還不是最猛的，最猛的是行業(yè)老三陽光電源，這老三去年一年股價上漲591%，年后又漲了23.13%。 盡管老三最猛，但我更關(guān)心的還是龍頭老大，因為這個老大一般更有投資價值，況且這個老大還跟我住在同一個城市，那就更要好好分析一下了。其實，隆基股份在2015年之前并不是行業(yè)老大，之前的光伏領(lǐng)域的老大一直都是中環(huán)股份。如下圖，在我自己編寫的python程序中輸入這三個公司的名字會自動生成各公司歷年營收、凈利潤、ROE的對比圖。由營業(yè)收入對比圖可以看出，隆基股份在2015年之前其營收規(guī)模都在中環(huán)股份之下，與陽光電源是同一個級別的選手。但是從2015年之后，隆基股份的小宇宙和洪荒之力突然就爆發(fā)了，快速與其他兩位選手拉開了距離，且差距有越拉越大的趨勢。不僅是營業(yè)收入，凈利潤的差距拉得更大，不到4年時間，隆基股份的凈利潤就已經(jīng)是另兩個小伙伴的五倍了，幾乎不是一個重量級的了。這感覺就仿佛幾個選手在賽跑，本來不相上下，可是突然有一個選手像打了雞血一樣火箭發(fā)射般沖出賽道，一飛沖天。 關(guān)于隆基股份的財報分析，大家可以看我錄得視頻，我就不再一個圖一段文字地寫了，太費勁了。
       今天，我想跟大家重點聊一聊隆基股份的逆襲之路。要了解他的逆襲，就必須先了解一下光伏發(fā)電技術(shù)。1839年，法國科學(xué)家Edmond Becquerel 在實驗室里面，一次偶然的情況發(fā)現(xiàn)光被某種材料吸收后會產(chǎn)生電壓時，于是，光伏發(fā)電的種子就此埋下。但是直到100年以后，貝爾實驗室的物理學(xué)家在1953年發(fā)現(xiàn)硅比硒更有效，創(chuàng)造了第一個實用的太陽能電池。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)導(dǎo)致太陽能電池能夠為電氣設(shè)備供電。1956年，Western Electric開始出售其硅光伏技術(shù)的商業(yè)許可證，但硅太陽能電池的高昂成本使它們無法在市場上普遍飽和。直至今天光伏已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為一個萬億大市場，然而技術(shù)起源于法國，而產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展卻蓬勃發(fā)展于中國，并成就了一家行業(yè)霸主級別的企業(yè)隆基股份。光伏發(fā)電的發(fā)展就像它的歷史一樣曲折而激烈。產(chǎn)業(yè)化提倡了很久，政府也做了對應(yīng)的補貼，但是在很長一段時間都難以實現(xiàn)突破式發(fā)展。因為要想真正實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)化就必須能夠平價上網(wǎng)，平價上網(wǎng)才是光伏行業(yè)的起點。沒能平價上網(wǎng)，也就是意味著運營商不能賺錢，單靠政府補貼的話就是垂死掙扎罷了。 所以平價上網(wǎng)對于光伏行業(yè)來說意義非凡。
     而在平價上網(wǎng)的過程中，稍微有些資歷的人都知道，光伏出現(xiàn)過單晶硅和多晶硅的技術(shù)之爭。多晶硅一開始是行業(yè)主流選擇，在多晶硅的時代協(xié)鑫集成可是市場的霸主，隆基股份很多人聽都沒聽過。但是，在2006年，有一個關(guān)鍵性的人物加盟了隆基股份，這個人物的加盟徹底改變了隆基的命運。這個人就是現(xiàn)任隆基股份董事長鐘寶申。鐘寶申加盟隆基之后，經(jīng)深思熟慮，他堅決認為，與對手處于同等競爭環(huán)境很難占據(jù)有利位置，只有采取非對稱競爭才能勝出。他認為，“常識性的東西，各公司做得都差不多，能夠勝出的關(guān)鍵因素，是企業(yè)如何構(gòu)建非對稱競爭實力”。正是這一“非對稱競爭力”，將隆基股份從市場的絞殺中盤出。 鐘寶申所謂的“非對稱競爭力”就是指單晶硅路線。因為單晶硅有如下優(yōu)勢：
1.同等條件下單晶組件發(fā)電量更高;2.單晶組件長期使用過程中功率衰減更少;3.單晶組件弱光響應(yīng)更;
      但是，單晶硅的缺點也是很明顯的，那就是成本高、技術(shù)難度大。其實別的公司也想走單晶硅路線，但是考慮到成本和技術(shù)難度就放棄了。只有隆基股份2006年把自身命運押在了單晶硅上，并一直專注于解決單晶硅技術(shù)的相關(guān)障礙，最終大獲成功。 隆基股份的年報中也明確寫道：”在技術(shù)路線選 擇方面，2006 年公司在深入研判光伏行業(yè)各類技術(shù)路線后，選擇了單晶路線作為技術(shù)發(fā)展方向，憑借工匠精神始終保持專注，發(fā)展成為全球最大的單晶硅片供應(yīng)商，近些年在公司的引領(lǐng)下單晶 在全球市場占有率快速提升，現(xiàn)已實現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)并主導(dǎo)了市場格局；在硅片切割技術(shù)方面，公司在行 2019 年年度報告 13 / 296 業(yè)內(nèi)率先實現(xiàn)了金剛線切割技術(shù)替代傳統(tǒng)砂漿切割技術(shù)，并推動了切割設(shè)備與金剛石切割線的國 產(chǎn)化替代，使得切片環(huán)節(jié)成本快速下降，生產(chǎn)效率大幅提升。在電池組件方面，公司在行業(yè)內(nèi)較 早布局并實現(xiàn)單晶 PERC 高效電池產(chǎn)能規(guī)?；粩嗵嵘D(zhuǎn)換效率等技術(shù)指標(biāo)，持續(xù)推動行業(yè)度電 成本的降低?！?/span>“非對稱競爭力”一旦形成，自然就是無敵狀態(tài)。握有這一武器，競爭必據(jù)高地。某種意義上，“非對稱競爭力”瞄準(zhǔn)的是“泛藍?！?，避開殺聲四起的“紅海”，相對狀態(tài)可以從容為之。
       從隆基股份早在2000年就瞄準(zhǔn)新能源發(fā)展鋪展開藍圖可以看出，這家民營企業(yè)在總裁李振國的設(shè)想里，在誕生之初就是一種大趨勢的“反向思維”，方向是“泛藍?！?。正是有了這樣的認知基因，所以在企業(yè)發(fā)展到關(guān)鍵階段的2006年，才能夠在單晶硅發(fā)展上達成戰(zhàn)略一致。乃至到了2016年將公司的戰(zhàn)略思路轉(zhuǎn)型到打造“全球領(lǐng)先的太陽能科技公司”，一以貫之地秉承的，仍然是“非對稱競爭力”的鍛造。

隆基股份的逆襲再次說明公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的眼光和魄力是多么重要。所以，價值投資者在選擇投資對象時，一定要對公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的能力和魄力有深入的了解。

那么隆基股份還能不能買呢？很多小伙伴也這么問我。我的答案是如果你了解了一個公司的商業(yè)模式和護城河，再仔細分析一下它歷年的財報，認真做一下調(diào)查研究，能把你說服，那么剩下的就是時機的選擇了。但等待時機就像等待股價上漲一樣同樣需要足夠的耐心，因為市場先生遲早會犯錯，所以盡量不要蹭熱點，因為再洶涌的潮水也會有退去的時候，當(dāng)潮水退去，機會的巖石就會裸露出來。

"The reverse attack of Longji shares once again shows how important the vision and courage of the company's leaders are." Last year until now, new energy, especially photovoltaic, has been hot speculation by the market. The stock price of the photovoltaic leader Longji shares rose 277.1% in 2020, and there is no sign of stopping after the year. In fact, Longji shares are not the most fierce, the most fierce is the industry's oldest three sunshine power supply, which rose 591% last year, and rose 23.13% after the year. Although the third brother is the most fierce, I care more about the first one, because the first one is generally more valuable for investment. Besides, the first one lives in the same city with me, so it is necessary to analyze it carefully. In fact, Longji is not the industry leader before 2015, the former leader in the photovoltaic field has always been Magnetics. As shown in the figure below, entering the names of these three companies in the Python program I wrote by myself will automatically generate a comparison chart of the revenue, net profit and ROE of each company over the years. As can be seen from the operating income comparison chart, the revenue scale of Longi Stock was below that of Magnetics before 2015, and it was the same level of player as Sunshine Power. However, after 2015, Longji's small universe and prehistorical powers suddenly broke out, and he quickly pulled away from the other two players, and the gap has a tendency of widening. Not only is the operating income, net profit gap is even bigger, less than 4 years, Longji shares of net profit is already five times the other two partners, almost not a heavyweight. It felt like a few runners in a race, originally neck and neck, but suddenly one of the runners like a rocket shot out of the track, skyrocketing. About Longji shares of financial analysis, you can see I recorded the video, I will no longer a figure a paragraph of text to write, too laborious.

Today, I would like to talk with you about the focus of Longji shares of the road against the attack. To understand his comeback, you must first look at photovoltaic technology. The seeds of photovoltaic power were sown in 1839 when French scientist Edmond Becquerel accidentally discovered in his laboratory that light absorbed by a material would generate a voltage. But it wasn't until 100 years later that physicists at Bell Labs discovered in 1953 that silicon was more efficient than selenium, creating the first practical solar cell. This discovery led to solar cells being able to power electrical equipment. Western Electric began selling commercial licenses for its silicon photovoltaic technology in 1956, but the high cost of silicon solar cells prevented them from saturating the market generally. Until today, photovoltaic has developed into a trillion-dollar market. However, the technology originated in France, while the industry development has flourished in China, and it has become a dominant company in the industry. The development of photovoltaic power generation is as tortuous and intense as its history.Industrialization has been advocated for a long time, and the government has also made corresponding subsidies, but it is difficult to achieve breakthrough development for a long time. Because in order to truly realize industrialization, we must be able to access the Internet at par, which is the starting point of the photovoltaic industry. The lack of affordable access means that operators can't make money and are struggling with government subsidies alone. So the parity of access to the photovoltaic industry is of great significance.

And in the process of parity access to the Internet, a little bit of seniority people know, photovoltaic has appeared monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon technology. Polysilicon was the mainstream choice of the industry at the beginning. In the era of polysilicon, GCL integration was the market leader, and many people had never heard of Longji. However, in 2006, there was a key person to join Longi shares, this person joined completely changed the fate of Longi. That person is Zhong Baoshen, the current chairman of Longji. After Zhong Baoshen joined Longji, after careful consideration, he firmly believed that it was difficult to occupy a favorable position in the same competitive environment with his rivals, and only by adopting asymmetric competition could he win. He believes that "common sense things, all companies do the same, the key to the success of the enterprise is how to build asymmetric competitive power". It is this "asymmetric competitiveness", Longji shares from the market strangled in the dish. Zhong Baoshen's so-called "asymmetric competitiveness" refers to the monocrystalline silicon route. Because monocrystalline silicon has the following advantages:

1. Under the same conditions, the power generation of single crystal components is higher;2. Less power attenuation during long-term use of single crystal components; 3. The weak light response of single crystal module is better;

However, the disadvantages of monocrystalline silicon are also very obvious, that is, high cost, technical difficulty.Other companies have tried to go the monocrystalline silicon route, but have given up because of the cost and technical difficulty. Only Longi, which bet its fortune on monocrystalline silicon in 2006, has been focusing on solving the related obstacles to monocrystalline silicon technology with great success. Longji stake in the annual report also explicitly writes: "in terms of technical route choice, 2006, the company in all kinds of technical route to in-depth photovoltaic industry, after a single route as the technology development direction, with the spirit always stay focused, and become the world's largest monocrystalline silicon chip suppliers, under the guidance of our company in recent years rapid ascension, single crystal in the global market share has been implemented reverse and dominate the market pattern; In terms of silicon wafer cutting technology, the company took the lead in the industry to realize the substitution of diamond wire cutting technology for traditional mortar cutting technology in the 2019 annual report 13/296, and promoted the substitution of cutting equipment and diamond cutting line in China, which made the cost of slicing link decrease rapidly and the production efficiency greatly improved.In terms of battery components, the company in the industry earlier layout and achieve single crystal PERC efficient battery production capacity scale, constantly improve conversion efficiency and other technical indicators, continue to promote the industry to reduce the cost of per kilo. "Asymmetric competitiveness" once formed, naturally is invincible state.Armed with this weapon, the competition must be high ground. In a sense, "asymmetric competitiveness" is aimed at the "pan-blue ocean", avoid the noise of the "red sea", the relative state can calmly.

From Longji shares as early as 2000 aimed at the development of new energy pave blueprint can be seen, the private enterprise in the president of Li Zhenguo's vision, at the beginning of its birth is a general trend of "reverse thinking", the direction is the "Pan Blue Ocean". Because of this cognitive gene, it was possible to reach a strategic consensus on the development of monocrystalline silicon in 2006, when the company reached a critical stage of development. Even in 2016, the company has transformed its strategic thinking to build "the world's leading solar energy technology company", persistently adhering to the forging of "asymmetric competitiveness".

Longji shares of the reverse attack once again shows how important the vision and drive of the company's leaders.Therefore, value investors must have a deep understanding of the ability and drive of corporate leaders when choosing investment targets.

So Longji shares can buy it?Many friends ask me the same question.My answer is that if you understand a company's business model and moat, a careful analysis of its financial statements over the years, and serious research can convince you, the rest is a matter of timing. But waiting for the opportunity just like waiting for the stock price to rise also needs enough patience, because Mr. Market will make mistakes sooner or later, so try not to ride on the hot spot, because even the surging tide will recede sometime, when the tide recede, the rock of opportunity will be exposed.