在即將過去的這一周，在碳中和、光伏、高瓴等概念的加持下， 隆基股份無疑是股市中的明星股。12月21日周一，隆基股份發(fā)布公告稱，高瓴資本受讓公司二股東李春安占總股本6%的股份，斥資158億元，成為隆基股份第二大股東。當(dāng)日，隆基股份的股價大漲10%。截至12月25日（周五）收盤，其股價為93.45元/股，一周累計漲幅超11.25%。成立15年的高瓴資本以長期投資著稱，隆基股份是其第三筆超過“百億級”的投資大項目，其他兩筆分別為：2018年斥資417億元入主格力電器（000651.SZ），以及2020年7月18日以100億元認(rèn)購鋰電池龍頭寧德時代（300750.SZ）的定增。有媒體總結(jié)道，新能源行業(yè)一直處在高瓴的能力圈以內(nèi)。2019年，特斯拉（TSLA.US）、蔚來（NIO.US）、寧德時代多次出現(xiàn)在高瓴資本的持倉中。今年，光伏行業(yè)的優(yōu)秀標(biāo)的成為高瓴資本重倉的一個領(lǐng)域。2020年以來，高瓴資本先后加碼恩捷股份（002812.SZ）、通威股份（600438.SH）等，投資規(guī)模在數(shù)億到十?dāng)?shù)億之間。 
       1。A股稀有標(biāo)的
據(jù)證券時報·數(shù)據(jù)寶統(tǒng)計，截至12月17日，也就是在高瓴入場之前，隆基股份已經(jīng)連續(xù)第10日被北向資金凈買入，期間隆基股份獲滬股通累計成交82.08億元，合計凈買入18.78億元。如果把時間拉長到一年，隆基股份的股價漲幅超過379%。從2012年上市至今，隆基的股價低迷了很長一段時間，長期在20-30元以下，直到今年上半年才開始爆發(fā)。3000多億市值的隆基股份可謂是A股的稀有標(biāo)的。經(jīng)過十多年的發(fā)展，隆基股份已成為全球最大的單晶硅生產(chǎn)制造商，可謂全球光伏龍頭，產(chǎn)業(yè)覆蓋了單晶硅、隆基樂葉光伏、隆基新能源、隆基清潔能源的光伏全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。其單晶硅片市占率為全球的40%，同時，公司的另一大業(yè)務(wù)線光伏組件也有望成為全球第一。國元證券在2021年光伏行業(yè)策略報告中分析道，組件市場格局分散，伴隨技術(shù)發(fā)展以及品牌效應(yīng)，具備成本優(yōu)勢的一體化龍頭將持續(xù)擴大份額。以隆基為例，隆基從硅片向下游延伸至組件，打通渠道樹立品牌后，憑借一流的品牌與成本優(yōu)勢快速發(fā)展，截至2020年12月，隆基成為首個年出貨量突破20GW的組件龍頭。從財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)看，隆基股份的表現(xiàn)也十分亮眼。公司2019年營業(yè)收入、歸母凈利潤、扣非凈利潤分別為329億元、52.8億元、50.9億元，同比分別增長49.6%、106.4%、117.4%。而今年前三季度的收入、歸母凈利潤、扣非后歸母凈利潤分別為338.32億元、63.57億元、60.14億元，同比分別增長49.08%、82.44%、76.35%。另外，隆基股份的管理層也被行業(yè)認(rèn)可，一位知名投資人對隆基股份的評價是：歷史上很少看到一個主流產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)形成又被替代的情況，但隆基股份干成了（單晶硅取代多晶硅成為主流產(chǎn)品）；歷史上也很少出現(xiàn)已經(jīng)形成了產(chǎn)業(yè)集群、還能在產(chǎn)業(yè)集群外把事干成了的企業(yè)（江浙以外的西安），但隆基股份也干成了。 
     2。光伏賽道上行在環(huán)保趨勢和全球政策推動下，碳中和成為全球共識，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長性凸顯，迎來加速上行階段。12月22日，中國“電力圓桌”四季度會議召開，提出2021年我國風(fēng)光新增裝機120GW的目標(biāo)。而且2021年全國能源工作會議也指出，2021年需要大力提升新能源消納和存儲能力，進一步優(yōu)化完善電網(wǎng)建設(shè)，加快構(gòu)建適應(yīng)高比例、大規(guī)模、可再生能源發(fā)展的新一代電力系統(tǒng)。自從提出了2030年前碳排放達(dá)峰值，以及2060年碳中和的目標(biāo)后，國內(nèi)裝機目標(biāo)逐步攀升。隆基股份靈武228MW光伏電站 來源：隆基股份官網(wǎng)根據(jù)中電聯(lián)數(shù)據(jù)，2020年9月起，國內(nèi)月度裝機加速，同比增幅在一倍以上，12月大概率發(fā)生搶裝。展望“十四五”，預(yù)計國內(nèi)年均裝機水平提升近一倍，繼續(xù)霸榜全球光伏裝機排名。未來，綠色能源替代化石能源將是不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的趨勢，而光伏在這一能源革命中具有不可替代的作用。隆基股份總裁李振國 來源：隆基股份官網(wǎng)此前，隆基股份總裁李振國在一次基金年度策略會上分享道：在政府和大企業(yè)的能源展望中，光伏被列為未來全球最主要的能源；在全球絕大多數(shù)國家和地區(qū)，光伏已經(jīng)成為最便宜、最有投資性價比的能源；以光伏為代表的可再生能源，有望實現(xiàn)全球各國的能源獨立與自主，從而消除因為能源短缺導(dǎo)致的國際爭端，實現(xiàn)全球和平的格局，這些因素決定了光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的明朗前景。近日，國家能源局新能源司司長任育之預(yù)計，今年光伏新增裝機可能達(dá)到35GW左右，年底光伏發(fā)電的累計裝機將達(dá)到2.4億千瓦，年底光伏發(fā)電規(guī)模將超過風(fēng)電，成為全國第三大電源。
目前，越來越多長期資本逐步進入光伏龍頭企業(yè)，也顯示出產(chǎn)業(yè)的長期價值。過去，由于光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)具有較強的周期性，如果說以平價上網(wǎng)、補貼退出作為成熟的標(biāo)志，這條成長之路，光伏行業(yè)一走就是10多年。
        正是因為行業(yè)的波動幅度巨大，且成長周期長，資本成功退出的案例并不多。不過，隨著越來越多地區(qū)實現(xiàn)平價上網(wǎng)，光伏的周期性將逐漸被磨平。開源證券的研究報告稱，2021年起，國內(nèi)新增光伏裝機幾乎完全是平價項目，內(nèi)生驅(qū)動力成為國內(nèi)市場發(fā)展的核心力量。電力成本的降低，使得光伏發(fā)電具備經(jīng)濟性，產(chǎn)業(yè)價值凸顯，對石化能源的替代作用加強。上述分析師還表示，在公司標(biāo)的方面，長期看好有競爭力的企業(yè)，如隆基股份、通威股份等；中期看好穿越周期的技術(shù)變革，如產(chǎn)品大型化帶來的成本優(yōu)化、提升電池轉(zhuǎn)化效率的異質(zhì)結(jié)、顆粒硅、新型應(yīng)用場景等；短期看，2021年是光伏供給端革命的階段，硅料、玻璃等環(huán)節(jié)景氣度較好。

In the past week, with the support of carbon neutral, photovoltaic, Hillhouse and other concepts, Longji shares are undoubtedly the star stocks in the stock market.On Monday, December 21, Longji announced that Li Chun 'an, the second shareholder of Hillhouse Capital, acquired 6% of the total share capital and invested 15.8 billion yuan to become the second largest shareholder of Longji. Shares in Longi jumped 10% that day.As of Friday, December 25 (close), its share price was 93.45 yuan/share, up over 11.25% in a week.Hillhouse Capital, founded 15 years ago, is known for long-term investment. Longji shares is the third big investment project of Hillhouse Capital that exceeds "10 billion" level. The other two are: in 2018, it invested 41.7 billion yuan to buy Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), and on July 18, 2020, it subscribed for the private placement of lithium battery leading Ningde Times (300750.SZ) with 10 billion yuan. Some media concluded that the new energy industry has been within the ability of Hillhouse. In 2019, Tesla (TSLA.US), NIO (NIO.US) and Ningde Times appeared many times in Hillhouse Capital's positions. This year, outstanding targets in the photovoltaic industry have become an area of Hillhouse Capital's heavy position. Since 2020, Hillhouse Capital has successively increased Enjie shares (002812.SZ) and Tongwei shares (600438.SH), with an investment scale ranging from hundreds of millions to one billion.

1.A - share rare target

According to the statistics of Securities Times · Databao, as of December 17, that is, before the entrance of Hillhouse, Longji shares have been net bought by northwards funds for the 10th consecutive day. During the period, Longji shares have achieved a total turnover of 8.208 billion yuan through Shanghai Stock Connect, with a total net purchase of 1.878 billion yuan. If you stretch that out to a year, Longi shares are up more than 379%.Since its listing in 2012, Longji's stock price has been depressed for a long time, staying below 20 to 30 yuan for a long time. It did not start to explode until the first half of this year. Longji shares, with A market value of more than 300 billion yuan, are rare A-share targets.After more than a decade of development, Longi has become the world's largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon, which can be described as the world's leading photovoltaic industry, covering the whole PV industry chain of monocrystalline silicon, Longi Le Leaf PV, Longi New Energy and Longi Clean Energy. Its monocrystalline silicon wafers account for 40% of the global market share. Meanwhile, photovoltaic modules, another major business line of the company, are also expected to become the world's first. Guoyuan Securities in 2021 photovoltaic industry strategy report analysis, the component market pattern is scattered, with the development of technology and brand effect, with cost advantages of the integrated leader will continue to expand share. Taking Longi as an example, Longi extends from silicon wafers to components downstream. After opening channels to establish brands, it develops rapidly with first-class brands and cost advantages. By December 2020, Longi has become the first component leader whose annual shipments break through 20GW.From the financial data, Longji shares of performance is also very bright. In 2019, the company's operating income, net profit attributable to the parent and non-net profit withheld were 32.9 billion yuan, 5.28 billion yuan and 5.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 49.6%, 106.4% and 117.4% respectively.In the first three quarters of this year, the income, net profit attributed to the mother and net profit attributed to the mother after deduction were 33.832 billion yuan, 6.357 billion yuan and 6.014 billion yuan, respectively, up 49.08%, 82.44% and 76.35% year-on-year. In addition, Longji shares management is recognized by the industry, a well-known investor on Longji shares evaluation is: rarely in history to see a mainstream product has been formed and replaced by the situation, but Longji shares dry (monocrystalline silicon instead of polycrystalline silicon become the mainstream product);In history, there are few enterprises that have formed an industrial cluster and can do things outside the industrial cluster (Xi 'an outside Jiangsu and Zhejiang), but Longji shares have also done.

2.Driven by the trend of environmental protection and global policies, carbon neutrality has become a global consensus, and the growth of the photovoltaic industry has been highlighted, ushered in an accelerated upward phase. On December 22, the fourth quarter meeting of China's "Power Roundtable" was held, and the goal of adding 120GW of installed power in 2021 was put forward. Moreover, the National Energy Work Conference in 2021 also pointed out that the consumption and storage capacity of new energy should be greatly enhanced in 2021, the construction of power grid should be further optimized and improved, and the construction of a new generation power system suitable for the development of high proportion, large scale and renewable energy should be accelerated. The domestic installed capacity target has been climbing since it set a target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and being carbon neutral by 2060. According to the data of China Electricity Union, since September 2020, the domestic monthly installed capacity has accelerated, the year-on-year growth rate has more than doubled, and there is a high probability of installation in December. Looking forward to the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is expected that the domestic average annual installed capacity will increase by nearly one time and continue to dominate the global PV installed capacity ranking. In the future, it will be an irreversible trend for green energy to replace fossil energy, and photovoltaic plays an irreplaceable role in this energy revolution. Before that, Li Zhenguo, president of Longji Group, shared in an annual strategy meeting of the fund: in the energy outlook of the government and large enterprises, photovoltaic is listed as the most important energy source in the world in the future; In most countries and regions of the world, PV has become the cheapest and most cost-effective energy for investment. Renewable energy, represented by photovoltaic, is expected to achieve energy independence and autonomy of all countries in the world, thus eliminating international disputes caused by energy shortage and realizing the pattern of global peace. These factors determine the bright prospect of photovoltaic industry. Recently, Ren Yuzhi, director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, estimated that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power may reach about 35GW this year, and the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power will reach 240 million kilowatts by the end of the year. By the end of the year, the scale of photovoltaic power will surpass wind power and become the third largest power source in China.

At present, more and more long-term capital has gradually entered the leading photovoltaic enterprises, which also shows the long-term value of the industry. In the past, because the photovoltaic industry has a strong cyclical, if the parity of access to the Internet, subsidies exit as a sign of maturity, this growth road, the photovoltaic industry is more than 10 years.

Because of the volatility of the industry and the long growth cycle, there are not many successful capital exits.However, the cyclicality of PV will gradually be worn out as more and more regions get affordable access to the Internet. Starting from 2021, new PV installations in China will be almost entirely affordable projects, and endogenous driving forces will become the core force for the development of the domestic market, said the research report by Kaixin Securities. The reduction of electricity cost makes photovoltaic power generation economical, highlights its industrial value, and strengthens its role in replacing petrochemical energy. The analysts also said that in terms of corporate targets, long-term optimistic about competitive enterprises, such as Longji shares, Tongwei shares, etc.; In the medium term, it is optimistic about the technological change through the cycle, such as the cost optimization brought by the upsizing of products, heterojunction to improve the conversion efficiency of batteries, granular silicon, new application scenarios, etc.In the short term, 2021 is the stage of the revolution of the photovoltaic supply side, and the prosperity of silicon materials and glass is good.