最近光伏板塊回調力度非常大，其中主要的原因是一方面硅料漲價太厲害，導致終端廠商停工不接受，影響需求，但全年裝機量在50GW是可以保證的，只是70GW看組件價格。另一方面由于硅料漲價太厲害，光伏各環(huán)節(jié)需要讓利硅料，使市場對光伏其他環(huán)節(jié)廠商今年業(yè)績悲觀，這是從行業(yè)層面看最近光伏板塊的回調。隆基股份首當其沖，從最高點跌下來近30%。目前隆基以21年EPS估算PE為27X，估值相對來說已經(jīng)是比較合理了，所以有挺多人躍躍欲試想加倉。通過復盤隆基歷史，基本可以知道隆基股價波動受行業(yè)兩大屬性影響，分別是周期性和成長性。
02行業(yè)屬性 光伏行業(yè)的發(fā)展受周期性和成長性兩方面的影響。
（1）周期性周期性受兩方面因素影響：一方面是下游需求受政策如2012年的“雙反”、2018年的“531”新政以及不可抗力因素，如2020年新冠影響裝機需求。另一方面受硅料、玻璃建設周期長影響，供需錯配不僅影響行業(yè)利潤的分配，也影響終端裝機量的上限，輕則影響企業(yè)全年利潤，重則使行業(yè)出清。
（2）成長性
近幾年光伏行業(yè)技術的迭代，成本不斷降低，使一些省份光伏度電成本已經(jīng)低于煤炭度電成本，平價時代真的來臨了。同時平價的驅動，使光伏成為新能源裝機的革命軍，目前全球光伏發(fā)電僅占總發(fā)電的2.7%，滲透率還比較低，全球為了實現(xiàn)碳中和目標，光伏發(fā)電滲透率將會進一步提高。
03公司作為光伏龍頭企業(yè)，自然受行業(yè)因素影響隆基股份作為光伏行業(yè)的老大哥，自然受行業(yè)屬性影響，通過復盤歷史，基本可以確定隆基短期波動受周期性影響，長期上漲受成長性驅動。隆基自上市以來凈利潤從2.84億元，增長至2019年的52.8億元，凈利潤翻了18倍，股價最高翻了40倍。這其中除了行業(yè)成長性影響外，也由于公司優(yōu)秀的戰(zhàn)略部署以及持續(xù)的高研發(fā)。
04公司過去的成功任何一個企業(yè)的成功都來自于其自建的護城河，而隆基股份作為光伏的龍頭，擁有著優(yōu)秀的戰(zhàn)略部署以及持續(xù)的高研發(fā)鑄造了其在光伏領域領頭羊的地位。
（1）優(yōu)秀的戰(zhàn)略部署
公司早期在單晶硅片與多晶硅片的路徑上，堅決地選擇了單晶硅片路線，主要由于單晶硅片轉化效率更高，在有限的土地上發(fā)揮最大效應，同時單晶硅片薄片化潛力更大，在硅料占硅片成本近67%的情況下，薄片化可以降低成本。
另外當時行業(yè)路徑選擇多晶硅片，這樣的背景下嚴重影響單晶硅片滲透率的提升，公司立即在2014年末切入組件市場，打開單晶硅片需求上限，隨后一并切入電池片環(huán)節(jié)，成功完成一體化戰(zhàn)略。在光伏平價化的趨勢下，成本控制的能力是非常重要的，公司一體化的戰(zhàn)略將會持續(xù)降低成本。另外為了降低成本，公司培養(yǎng)上游設備廠商連城數(shù)控、北方華創(chuàng)等廠商，大幅降低單晶爐等設備成本；同時為了應對光伏行業(yè)快速的升級，公司親自設計上游設備，增強了抵抗風險的能力。
（2）高研發(fā)投入技術的快速迭代是光伏行業(yè)的特點，這就需要企業(yè)進行高研發(fā)投入，公司自2013年以來一直保持著行業(yè)領先的高研發(fā)投入。
公司在2011年已經(jīng)具備金剛線切片的專利，并在2015年成為行業(yè)售價實現(xiàn)100%金剛線切割的企業(yè)，賺取了2-3年技術進步的利潤。2015年對PERC電池進行量產研究，并在2018年迅速對原有產線進行全部升級成PERC產線。公司大多數(shù)技術自研發(fā)成功到大規(guī)模使用都有一定時間的間隔，主要由于光伏行業(yè)技術迭代速度之快，公司為了降低風險，在技術還沒完全確定之前，不進行大規(guī)模量產，僅以技術儲備放著，但當確定后便進行大規(guī)模量產，迅速搶占技術紅利以及市場的擴容。近年來公司優(yōu)秀的戰(zhàn)略部署以及技術儲備依然有，比如最近簽硅料以及玻璃的長單；以及儲備了HJT電池技術等。
05公司近期風險公司作為一體化廠商，自然面臨硅片、電池片、組件等環(huán)節(jié)的廠商競爭。
（1）硅片環(huán)節(jié)
由于隆基硅片環(huán)節(jié)長期毛利率維持在15%-30%之間，會吸引了一些廠商進入市場。
但光伏行業(yè)需要降本，規(guī)模效應可以更好地將本，這也是制約外行進入硅片的一個因素；另外公司硅片成本控制得當，毛利率長期高于同行，公司有足夠的將本空間打壓新入行者。
（2）電池片環(huán)節(jié)
HJT產線隆基也有布局，同時去年12月公司規(guī)劃3GW電池片建設計劃，估計也用于HJT電池片量產的試驗，公司這塊也沒有落后。
（3）組件環(huán)節(jié)
去年是210、182爭吵最激烈的一年，公司雖布局了210硅片，但沒有規(guī)劃210組件產線，主要由于210組件相關產業(yè)鏈仍未成熟，以及客戶接受度尚不明朗，但公司既然布局了210硅片，若未來210組件大規(guī)模使用，公司也不會放棄210組件。
06小結
復盤隆基歷史，其股價波動受周期性和成長性影響；而成長性歸根結底在于公司自建的護城河，公司以往的成功足以證明了隆基優(yōu)秀的管理能力；目前面對行業(yè)風險，隆基也能很好地面對。未來公司依然依靠優(yōu)秀的技術和管理經(jīng)驗面對行業(yè)的風險。同時面對光伏平價時代的到來，一體化廠商將充分受益。近期看目前公司估值27X，處于近三年平均PE的中沿線，算是合理估值，但市場風險仍在，可能會進一步壓低公司估值。但長期看，公司作為龍頭企業(yè)，且擁有過往成功的歷史，足以證明公司是光伏企業(yè)中優(yōu)秀的企業(yè)之一。券商預計2025年全球裝機量將達350GW，組件環(huán)節(jié)市場規(guī)?？蛇_3958億元，預計公司組件市占率可達40%，硅片市占率可達50%，貢獻利潤208億元，券商給了40倍估值，我保守點給25倍，也是5200億元的市值，目前隆基股份市值3125億元。

Recently, the photovoltaic plate is very strong, the main reason is that on the one hand, the price of silicon material is too high, leading to the terminal manufacturers do not accept the shutdown, affecting the demand, but the annual installation capacity of 50GW can be guaranteed, but 70GW depends on the price of components.On the other hand, due to the price of silicon material is too severe, the photovoltaic link needs to yield silicon material, so that the market is pessimistic about the performance of other photovoltaic manufacturers this year, which is from the industry level to see the recent photovoltaic plate callback.Longi shares bore the brunt, down nearly 30% from their peak.At present, Longji estimates PE with 21 years of EPS as 27X, which is relatively reasonable. So there are a lot of people who are eager to add positions.By reviewing the history of Longji, we can basically know that Longji's stock price fluctuations are affected by two major attributes of the industry, namely periodicity and growth.

The development of the photovoltaic industry is influenced by both periodicity and growth.

(1) Cyclic periodicity is affected by two factors: on the one hand, downstream demand is affected by policies such as the "Double Countermeasure" in 2012, the "531" New Deal in 2018 and force majeure factors such as the 2020 new crown. On the other hand, due to the long construction cycle of silicon materials and glass, the mismatch between supply and demand not only affects the distribution of industry profits, but also affects the upper limit of terminal installed capacity. At the least, it affects the annual profit of enterprises, and at the most, it causes the liquidation of the industry.

(2) Growth

In recent years, the photovoltaic industry technology iteration, the cost continues to reduce, so that some provinces photovoltaic cost per kilowatt hour is lower than the cost of coal, parity era is really coming. At the same time, the drive of parity makes photovoltaic become a revolutionary army of new energy installed. At present, the global photovoltaic power generation only accounts for 2.7% of the total power generation, and its permeability is still relatively low. In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation will be further increased.

As a leading photovoltaic enterprise, Longi shares are naturally affected by industry factors. As the big brother of the photovoltaic industry, Longi shares are naturally affected by industry attributes. By reviewing the history, we can basically determine that Longi's short-term fluctuations are affected by periodicity, while its long-term rise is driven by growth. Longji's net profit has increased from 284 million yuan to 5.28 billion yuan in 2019 since its listing, with its net profit increasing by 18 times and its stock price increasing by 40 times at the highest. In addition to the impact of the industry growth, but also due to the company's excellent strategic deployment and continuous high research and development.

The success of any enterprise comes from its self-built moat. As a leader in photovoltaic industry, Longi Co., Ltd. has excellent strategic deployment and continuous high research and development, which has cast its leading position in photovoltaic field.

(1) Excellent strategic deployment

In the early stage, the company resolutely chose the path of monocrystalline silicon wafer on the path of monocrystalline silicon wafer and polycrystalline silicon wafer. The main reason is that the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon wafer is higher, which can give full play to the maximum effect on the limited land. At the same time, the thinning potential of monocrystalline silicon wafer is greater.

In addition, the industry chose polycrystalline silicon wafers at that time, which seriously affected the improvement of the penetration rate of monocrystalline silicon wafers. The company immediately entered the component market at the end of 2014, opened the upper limit of the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers, and then cut into the link of battery wafers, successfully completed the integration strategy. In the trend of photovoltaic parity, the ability to control the cost is very important, the company integration strategy will continue to reduce the cost.In addition, in order to reduce costs, the company trained upstream equipment manufacturers such as Liancheng CNC and NAURA to significantly reduce the cost of single crystal furnace and other equipment. At the same time, in order to cope with the rapid upgrading of the photovoltaic industry, the company personally designed the upstream equipment to enhance the ability to resist risks.

(2) The rapid iteration of high R&D investment technology is a characteristic of the photovoltaic industry, which requires high R&D investment by enterprises. Since 2013, the company has maintained an industry-leading high R&D investment.

The company has a diamond wire slice patent in 2011, and in 2015 became the industry price to achieve 100% diamond wire cutting enterprises, earned 2-3 years of technical progress of profits. In 2015, the mass production of the PERC battery was studied, and in 2018, the original production line was rapidly upgraded to the PERC production line.Company most technology from the developed to the widespread use has certain time intervals, mainly due to the photovoltaic industry technology iteration speed, the company in order to reduce risk, the technology is still not entirely sure before, not for mass production, only to technical reserves, but when determining for mass production, and then quickly take technology dividends and market expansion. In recent years, the company still has excellent strategic deployment and technical reserves, such as the recent signing of silicon materials and glass long order; As well as the stock of HJT battery technology.

As an integrated manufacturer, the company naturally faces competition from manufacturers in silicon wafer, battery wafer, module and other links.

(1) silicon chip link

As long - term gross margin of silicon chip link to maintain between 15%-30%, will attract some manufacturers to enter the market.

But the photovoltaic industry needs to reduce the cost, the scale effect can be better, this is also a factor restricting the layman into silicon wafer; In addition, the company's silicon wafer cost is properly controlled, the gross profit margin is higher than the peers for a long time, and the company has enough space to suppress new entrants.

(2) Battery link

HJT production line Longji also has the layout, and in December last year, the company planned the construction plan of 3GW battery, which is estimated to be used for the test of mass production of HJT battery, and the company is not lagging behind.

(3) Component link

Last year was the most heated quarrel between 210 and 182. Although the company arranged 210 silicon wafers, it did not plan the production line of 210 components, mainly due to the immature industrial chain of 210 components and unclear customer acceptance. However, since the company arranged 210 silicon wafers, if 210 components are used on a large scale in the future, the company will not give up 210 components.

06 summary

Reviving the history of Longji, its stock price fluctuation is influenced by periodicity and growth;The growth in the final analysis lies in the company's self-built moat, the company's past success is enough to prove the excellent management ability of Longji; At present, Longji can face the industry risks well.In the future, the company will still rely on excellent technology and management experience to face the risks of the industry. At the same time, facing the arrival of the era of PV parity, integrated manufacturers will fully benefit.Recently, the company's current valuation is 27X, which is in the middle of the average PE in the past three years. It is a reasonable valuation, but the market risks are still there, which may further depress the company's valuation. However, in the long term, the company as a leading enterprise, and has a past successful history, enough to prove that the company is one of the outstanding photovoltaic enterprises. The brokerage expects that the global installed volume will reach 350GW in 2025, and the market size of the component link can reach 395.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the component market share of the company can reach 40%, and the silicon chip market share can reach 50%, contributing a profit of 20.8 billion yuan. The brokerage gave a valuation of 40 times, and I am conservative to give 25 times, which is also the market value of 520 billion yuan.