022預(yù)測(cè)：光伏未來在哪里

1、總體規(guī)模

由于今年實(shí)際裝機(jī)不及預(yù)期（原來預(yù)計(jì)是55-65GW），而雙碳目標(biāo)任務(wù)依然較重，這使得光伏行業(yè)普遍對(duì)明年新增裝機(jī)預(yù)期比較樂觀。業(yè)內(nèi)人士表示，2022年我國(guó)光伏新增裝機(jī)可能在75GW以上。

而東吳證券近期發(fā)布的研報(bào)則更為樂觀，2022年一季度硅料有16萬噸產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)釋放，價(jià)格下調(diào)將大幅刺激需求，預(yù)計(jì)一季度淡季不淡，后續(xù)逐季提升。產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈降價(jià)帶動(dòng)地面電站加速起量，整縣推進(jìn)+電價(jià)上漲刺激分布式光伏爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)，東吳證券預(yù)計(jì)2022年國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)需求或達(dá)80GW+，同增60％+，其中分布式光伏比例達(dá)50％+。

2、政策利好

目前，雖然還沒有新的政策出臺(tái)，但是有一個(gè)方向，對(duì)明年行業(yè)發(fā)展的刺激作用非常明顯。

11 月 8 日，人民銀行宣布通過推出碳減排支持工具，向金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供低成本資金，引導(dǎo)金融機(jī)構(gòu)在自主決策、自擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的前提下，向碳減排重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的各類企業(yè)一視同仁提供碳減排貸款，貸款利率與同期限檔次貸款市場(chǎng)報(bào)價(jià)利率（LPR）大致持平。

據(jù)測(cè)算，這將使光伏裝機(jī)企業(yè)的成本下降0.5%，極大的緩解目前資金成本較為緊張的情況。

3、產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈變化

對(duì)于產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈各環(huán)節(jié)的變化，市場(chǎng)人士有以下幾個(gè)預(yù)期：

（1）硅料降價(jià)

（2）組件漲價(jià)

（3）國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策繼續(xù)支持

（4）全球的清潔能源合作

（5）整縣推進(jìn)與分布式光伏建設(shè)繼續(xù)提升

上面5條中，根據(jù)2021年行業(yè)趨勢(shì)的延續(xù)性來判斷，前4條是相對(duì)容易預(yù)判的。

而第5條則需要細(xì)細(xì)品味。這里面還有一個(gè)小插曲。2021年6月20日，國(guó)家能源局下發(fā)《關(guān)于報(bào)送整縣（市、區(qū)）屋頂分布式光伏開發(fā)試點(diǎn)方案的通知》，對(duì)具備條件的建筑屋頂進(jìn)行分布式光伏安裝試點(diǎn)，隨后全國(guó)各地陸續(xù)掀起了試點(diǎn)的高潮。

然而在試點(diǎn)中也出現(xiàn)了一些問題，日前，經(jīng)濟(jì)日?qǐng)?bào)發(fā)文稱，“推進(jìn)屋頂光伏開發(fā)切忌大呼隆”：屋頂光伏分布廣、站點(diǎn)多，管理困難、運(yùn)維難度大，需要服務(wù)好、反應(yīng)快的企業(yè)，大企業(yè)資本、技術(shù)實(shí)力雄厚，有大企業(yè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，但也有管理成本較高等不足。對(duì)于民營(yíng)中小企業(yè)來說，盡管有些方面比不上大企業(yè)，但也有自身比較優(yōu)勢(shì)。因此，各類企業(yè)充分競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，有助于形成互補(bǔ)共生和諧發(fā)展的關(guān)系。

從這篇報(bào)道來看，2021年在試點(diǎn)推進(jìn)的過程出現(xiàn)了一些“大呼隆”式的冒進(jìn)問題，部分地方出現(xiàn)不科學(xué)的搶進(jìn)度以及市場(chǎng)排他現(xiàn)象；但是，不管爭(zhēng)議如何，至少說明了分布式光伏的前景是越來越好。

按照國(guó)家能源局的要求，光伏發(fā)展要堅(jiān)持多項(xiàng)并舉，其中就包括堅(jiān)持集中式與分布式并舉。在政策的推動(dòng)下，分布式光伏已經(jīng)進(jìn)入規(guī)?；l(fā)展階段，集中式光伏和分布式光伏裝機(jī)的占比逐漸趨于平衡，預(yù)計(jì)“十四五”期間也將維持良好的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)。

在整縣推進(jìn)分布式光伏的情況下，2022年中分布式光伏極有可能依然是我國(guó)最重要的方式。

4、其他看點(diǎn)

分析研究行業(yè)，最終要落到對(duì)投資決策的輔助價(jià)值上來。對(duì)于2022年光伏行業(yè)的變化，專業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)是如何解讀的呢？國(guó)信證券在近期的研報(bào)中發(fā)表了對(duì)于未來預(yù)測(cè)的觀點(diǎn)，可以作為參考思路：

（1）平價(jià)時(shí)代光伏板塊投資的重大邏輯變化——從邊際產(chǎn)能成本定價(jià)向邊際需求成本承受力定價(jià)切換：

（2）2022年瓶頸環(huán)節(jié)硅料產(chǎn)量定裝機(jī)，預(yù)計(jì)全球新增裝機(jī)230GW以上：

硅料高景氣持續(xù)，電池片邊際修復(fù)，重視組件中長(zhǎng)期格局；

（3）逆變器及輔材確定性受益放量，關(guān)注格局及利潤(rùn)率改善：

（4）N型邁入量產(chǎn)元年，孕育設(shè)備新機(jī)遇：

（5）發(fā)電側(cè)大基數(shù)+用戶側(cè)高彈性，2022年儲(chǔ)能確定性高增長(zhǎng)：

國(guó)信證券認(rèn)為，估值方面，盡管板塊已經(jīng)漲了三年，但在行業(yè)規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)、集中度提升驅(qū)動(dòng)的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)下，2022年隨著企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)兌現(xiàn)和龍頭領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)逐步驗(yàn)證，板塊仍有較大概率的整體提估值機(jī)會(huì)，龍頭更有望逐步享有估值溢價(jià)。

1. Overall scale  

Due to this year's actual installed capacity is less than expected (originally expected to be 55-65GW), and the dual carbon target task is still relatively heavy, which makes the photovoltaic industry generally optimistic about the new installed capacity next year.   China's new pv installations in 2022 are likely to be more than 75GW, industry insiders said.  

And soowu Securities recently released a research report is more optimistic, in the first quarter of 2022, silicon is expected to release 160,000 tons of capacity, the price reduction will greatly stimulate demand, is expected to be the first quarter of the off-season is not weak, the subsequent quarter to improve.   Industry chain price reduction to accelerate the ground power station, the county to promote + electricity prices to stimulate the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic, Dongwu Securities is expected to 2022 domestic market demand or up to 80GW+, with an increase of 60% +, in which the proportion of distributed photovoltaic up to 50% +.  

2. Favorable policies  

At present, although there is no new policy, but there is a direction, next year's industry development of the stimulus effect is very obvious.  

On November 8, the People's Bank of China announced by introducing carbon reduction support tools, provide low-cost capital to financial institutions, encourage financial institutions under the premise of independent decision-making, at their own risk, equally to carbon reduction focus in the field of all kinds of enterprises to provide loans to reduce emissions, loan interest rate and term loan market quotation rate with roughly equal (LPR).  

It is estimated that this will reduce the cost of photovoltaic installation enterprises by 0.5%, greatly easing the current tight capital cost situation.  

3. Industrial chain changes  

Market participants have the following expectations for changes in all links of the industrial chain:  

(1) Silicon material price reduction  

(2) Component price increase  

(3) Continued support from national industrial policies  

(4) Global cooperation on clean energy  

(5) The county continues to promote and promote distributed photovoltaic construction  

Of the five items above, the first four are relatively easy to predict based on the continuity of industry trends in 2021.  

No. 5 is something to chew on.  There's a twist to this.  On June 20, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Submitting the Pilot Scheme of Rooftop Distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC Development for the Whole County (city, district)", which carried out the pilot installation of distributed photovoltaic on the roofs of buildings with the conditions. Subsequently, the climax of the pilot was set off in succession across the country.  

Also appeared some problems in the pilot, however, a few days ago, said the economic journal articles, "advance the photovoltaic roof headlong mass action of avoid by all means" : photovoltaic roof, wide distribution, site management difficult, difficult operations, need good service, fast reaction of enterprises, large enterprises capital, strong technical strength, has the advantage of large enterprises, but also have high management cost.   For private smes, although they are not as good as large enterprises in some aspects, they also have their own comparative advantages.   Therefore, full competition among various enterprises helps to form a relationship of complementary symbiosis and harmonious development.  

According to this report, in the process of pilot promotion in 2021, there are some "great Hulong-style" reckless problems, unscientific progress and market exclusiveness in some places.   But whatever the controversy, it at least shows that the prospects for distributed pv are getting better.  

According to the requirements of the National Energy Administration, photovoltaic development should adhere to a number of parallel, including the persistence of centralized and distributed parallel.   Under the promotion of the policy, distributed photovoltaic has entered the stage of large-scale development, the proportion of centralized photovoltaic and distributed photovoltaic installed gradually tends to balance, is expected to maintain a good trend of development during the "14th Five-Year plan".  

In the case of the whole county to promote distributed pv, it is very likely to remain the most important way in 2022.  

4. Other things to watch  

Analysis of the industry, ultimately to fall on the value of investment decisions.  How do professional bodies interpret the changes in pv industry in 2022?  Guosen Securities published its views on future prediction in a recent research report, which can be used as a reference:  

(1) Major logical change of photovoltaic plate investment in the era of parity -- switch from marginal capacity cost pricing to marginal demand cost bearing pricing:  

(2) The capacity of silicon material in bottleneck link will be fixed and installed in 2022, and it is estimated that the global installed capacity will be more than 230GW:  

Silicon material high boom continued, cell marginal repair, pay attention to the long-term pattern of components;  

(3) Inverters and auxiliary materials are sure to benefit more, focusing on pattern and profit margin improvement:  

(4) N-type entering the first year of mass production, breeding new opportunities for equipment:  

(5) Large base on the power generation side + high elasticity on the user side, energy storage will definitely increase in 2022:  

Guosen securities believes that the valuation ways, although plate has risen for three years, but in the growth of the industry scale, concentration increase drive growth, as corporate earnings growth in 2022 to cash and leading edge gradually validation, plate still has larger probability of the overall valuation opportunity, leading more is expected to gradually enjoys a premium valuation.